Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

My area would look ever so much sexier in white, but yes it's sort of that colour. The map one: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map.
I actually thought the date had rolled back by mistake looking and the creep of the green taking over blue. Nice surprise to see it was correct.

Yellow that is impressive!

Orkney islands?

We are just about in light blue with 102 cases. Hoping to go green soon!

Oh yeh we’ve gone to green from blue. Under 100 now

Ooh! Didn't realise you could zoom in too your neighbourhood. Mine is white 😏

Oh me either! Mine is white

Thank you, very interesting, supports my view that parts of Kent, Lancashire and Northumberland should be in tier 2, and parts of Devon and Dorset in tier 1. It would not be a patchwork quilt.

Detailed post on Pfizer and Moderna trial process BMJ

Especially when it comes to whether participants should test.

Pffffft, show-offs, mine is still green but the lightest green heading to yellow. I don't want to identify earlier as that probably gives only a few MSOA options for where I live (for the other locals).

We are also in white. The villages round here are all in white around the urban areas. The problem is that lots of people go into the cities to work so this won't be static...

oh and it would very much be a patchwork quilt round here

Ours is still darker blue :(

Omg, most of my county is white despite being about to go into Tier 3...

it updated, so now we are lighter blue. getting there.

@MarshaBradyo

Detailed post on Pfizer and Moderna trial process BMJ

Especially when it comes to whether participants should test.

Thanks for that link Marsha (posting it in full again: blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-lets-be-cautious-and-first-see-the-full-data/ )

I'm pro-vaccine but feel uneasy with all these questions. Nevertheless I feel optimistic that we will have a safe and effective vaccine some day - just, when?

We're getting darker... although still blue.

Table by RP131 of all the boroughs and i divesting whether rising or falling, and which tier they will be in
There are several boroughs which have rates above the national average which are rising, and yet will be in tier 2
And similarly many in tier 3 with the opposite trajectory.

Also, I don’t fully understand how, after 3 weeks of lockdown, can cases still be rising in some areas?

twitter.com/rp131/status/1332777554357481480?s=21

*i divesting should read indicating

There are about 35 boroughs below England average case rates where cases are falling (some very rapidly), and yet will be in tier 3 for the next 2.5 weeks

More worryingly there are 5 above the national average with rising cases that are in tier 2.

@ceeveebee

*i divesting should read indicating

There are about 35 boroughs below England average case rates where cases are falling (some very rapidly), and yet will be in tier 3 for the next 2.5 weeks

More worryingly there are 5 above the national average with rising cases that are in tier 2.

They did say hospital capacity was a factor, so if those boroughs previously had high cases, the number in hospital won't come down immediately.

[quote ceeveebee]Table by RP131 of all the boroughs and i divesting whether rising or falling, and which tier they will be in
There are several boroughs which have rates above the national average which are rising, and yet will be in tier 2
And similarly many in tier 3 with the opposite trajectory.

Also, I don’t fully understand how, after 3 weeks of lockdown, can cases still be rising in some areas?

twitter.com/rp131/status/1332777554357481480?s=21[/quote]
Our areas rising, having been low throughout. I don't think there's any doubt the big way it's spreading is through schools.
I know several cases where the whole family has caught it, brought in by one of the children.

But would that not be the case in all areas, as schools are open everywhere?

In Trafford where I live, case rates have fallen in all age groups so we aren’t seeing any growth in school aged children (unless there’s a massive spike in secondary hidden by a massive decline in primary)

I think also, as other people have said, the calculation looked at hospital capacity and rates in over 60s, so in London even though some boroughs are very high, others are Tier 1 level now (mine) and there is a lot of hospital capacity.

But would that not be the case in all areas, as schools are open everywhere?

In theory yes, but it's only since halfterm it's really taken off in secondary schools here.
Before halfterm it was small amounts of close contacts from one year isolating. In the last fortnight one has closed completely, another is on fairly large partial closure and the other is rife with it too.

Again before half term, the only local people I'd known who had positive results were in the older category. Now it's all children and parents, and considerably more numerically.

I think the issue is that once it's in the school it can go round like wildfire. It hadn't got a hold in schools earlier, now it has.

That's not saying that it couldn't happen in other areas, I'm just saying that's what seems to have happened in ours, and why lockdown hasn't effected the growth.

Before half term I think the dc's secondary had six positive cases (mostly staff), and all as far as they could tell unconnected. On Friday alone there were three cases from one year.

Agree it’s not just about case rates, but that is clearly the highest weighted factor when you look at the evidence file they published which shows how each region was slotted neatly into a tier on the axis of cases vs trend

It does feel like they need to err on the side of caution in the areas that are rising. Once it takes hold, the growth is exponential (look at Liverpool and Manchester) and so can go from reasonably low rates to very high rates in a matter of weeks. If the areas with rising cases carry on rising in the next week to the end of lockdown, they need to be addressed immediately and put into tier 3, not wait until 16 December or they will not be in a position to have any Christmas relaxing of restrictions.

The very rapid rate of fall in GMcr since lockdown after months of restrictions of varying levels surely disproves the "schools are main driver of infections" theory, surely, since despite schools remaining fully open it is lockdown that has made our figures plummet. In some areas by 50 percent in a week.

Whilst I agree that schools are A vector of infection, I don't think we can say they are THE vector of infection with any kind of integrity looking at GMcr. It's obviously other things adults were doing: hospitality, commuting, work?