Should we submit to the lockdown or fight back?

[pontypridd]

Just this.

I feel scared writing it. I know I'll be flamed.

But how long can people live like this for? I've lost so many family over the years - my mum too when I was young. We all get sick and die.

We can't lock up the whole world because of Covid. Are we just all going to submit? Or do we, should we fight for our freedom?

@Requinblanc

I can completely understand how you feel.

I have no trust whatsoever in this government. They had months to fix testing, track and trace and to prepare for the winter. They did nothing.

To me it makes little sense to endlessly repeat full lockdowns without any other plan. What if there is no vaccine in the spring? what do you do then?

People seem to think you can only be a selfish covidiot or a saint who follows the rules to the letter.

That's a very dangerous place to be when debate is suppressed in this way.

There was an Oxford professor on the BBC yesterday stating that she was concern that lockdowns only achieve a temporary reprieve but do nothing to eradicate the virus long term. She stated that an effective track and trace and testing are needed, not just endless lockdowns, and that the sick and the vulnerable should be the one to shield, not the healthy population. That made perfect sense to me. Is an Oxford professor a covidiot too for saying this?

The NHS has been underfunded for years. The virus has only made that worse but politicians have a lot to answer for for neglecting it in this way.

People are losing their jobs, businesses are closing, mental health is declining, people are missing out on treatment and operations. That will cost lives too.

I am also fed up that we are showing predictions and stats that look very biased. I want to know the death stats by age groups and how many people who were not in the vulnerable category died.

I think Europe will see mass unrest by December if governments don't start planning beyond relying on damaging lockdowns. It is perfectly reasonable at some point to start challenging leaders who are losing control of the situation.

This

I dont think anyone is saying the lives of the elderly dont matter but what we have currently which has included people maniacally banging pots and pans together like demented seals outside their houses celebrating a health service that has sent thousands to their deaths in care homes encouraging many old people to sign "do not resuscitate orders isn't" the answer. Bearing in mind numerous studies have said ventilators are doing more harm than good, I would be genuinely interested what hospitals are doing exactly to help the prognosis of someone with covid. If it is merely the administration of drugs , could this not be done in a non hospital setting ?

People think that lockdown will cause more cancer deaths. I do understand why people think this. It is because non-Covid services were shut last time a) to redeploy staff to Covid wards (could happen again) but also b) to stop people getting COVID in hospital. This we can mitigate better now that we are able to test and isolate and have 'green' and 'red' hospitals and zones segregated.

The aim this time (different to last time) is to keep the other stuff going

The thing that will stop us doing that and lose you all your services again is rising COVID cases which require staff redeployment and make the likelihood of infection getting into 'green' areas high.

There will be more and not less cancer deaths if we don't reduce COVID infections

Same can be said of mental health
Sure isolation is not good for mental health but for mental health services and community services and community care to stay open we also need Covid to be low so we can have staff and be able to risk seeing people face to face without unacceptable risk of infection.

I don't see it as a choice Covid down, cancer etc up. I think we need Covid down to catch up the cancer work and enable GPS etc to open up again.

Fight then .. I can't be bothered to engage with you conspiracy theorists ... what are you planning to do exactly !!!

Well I would agree with you Dan
I would choose some oral steroids and oxygen at home if I could get it but oxygen and resp support are a hospital thing.

People in general feel they 'ought' to be in hospital if they are very ill although in fact their chances of survival may not be much improved. Few people are pragmatic enough to refuse admission when the chips are down.

If you choose not to go to hospital (as I would if 80 and in care) you need a DNAR but you appear to be against that.

I find your position contradictory.
No-one is saying elderly deaths don't matter but you think they aren't worth a lock down?
So what do you actually suggest is done?

I would be genuinely interested what hospitals are doing exactly to help the prognosis of someone with covid. If it is merely the administration of drugs , could this not be done in a non hospital setting

Oxygen therapy (CPAP I believe, the same therapy used for sleep apnoea), blood thinning and signs of clots (DVT, PE, etc) IV antibiotic support for secondary infections, close regular monitoring of bloods and ECG’s for monitoring organ response and detection of early distress/failure, IV hydration.

It’s not easy to move to a community setting without easy and quick access to various tools especially since the consequences aren’t uniform and are unpredictable.

Requin I also agree with you
I think the Oxford professor is Carl Hanneghan. He's definitely not a nutter.
What the government didn't do is sort out track and trace before relaxing restrictions. They are constantly 2 weeks behind where they need to be.
Until we get a vaccine restrictions to some degree are inevitable but if we'd had good T&T it wouldn't be this bad.

Where you are wrong though is that even if it's only the elderly who die then they have to die out of hospital or the NHS still gets overwhelmed and people don't seem to be Ok with that idea.

You cannot perfectly shield elderly people when there are high levels in the population at large

You would also need to accept that some younger people would still get very sick and maybe die because a small percentage of a big number is still a pretty big number.

If the public are on board for letting more people die then Ok maybe that right but don't blame the NHS when it happens. We need to have a grown up discussion accepting that a lot of people will die and if we are Ok with that because they are old then so be it but don't blame Drs for DNAR and algorithms. We are going to need them.

@DougRossIsTheBoss

Well I would agree with you Dan I would choose some oral steroids and oxygen at home if I could get it but oxygen and resp support are a hospital thing.

People in general feel they 'ought' to be in hospital if they are very ill although in fact their chances of survival may not be much improved. Few people are pragmatic enough to refuse admission when the chips are down.

If you choose not to go to hospital (as I would if 80 and in care) you need a DNAR but you appear to be against that.

I find your position contradictory.
No-one is saying elderly deaths don't matter but you think they aren't worth a lock down?
So what do you actually suggest is done?

A lockdown causes more deaths from non covid issues according to many Drs so locking people away effectively of all ages to protect people with an average age of 82 who have a tiny chance of dying from it even getting it is like using a metaphorical sledgehammer to crack a walnut. It isn't proportional when looking at the death rates from other diseases.

For eg air pollution contributes to an estimated 40,000 deaths per year in the Uk so if we are looking at preserving life at all costs for every living soul why are these virtuous lockdown supporters car drivers for the past 20 years or so. If the holier than tho " protect the NHS at all costs " brigade are so worried about beds being taken what are they doing smoking ,drinking and eating junk food? I saw a post on social media the other day from this chap who was ordering people to stay at home with his silly hash tag but in his photo he had a cig in one hand, a pint in the other and morbidly obese. His lifestyle is statistically likely to put a strain on the NHS sooner rather than later yet it goes completely over his head as long as the likes come in from his silly update status

I don't mind people preaching about protecting the health services but maybe time they practiced what they preached instead of preaching to others displaying complete hypocrisy with how they lead their own lives

Eeeerrmmm ... I'd also question the fighting credentials of the OP .. where are you ??? .. have you changed your mind and taken your gloves off ??

@Cornettoninja

I would be genuinely interested what hospitals are doing exactly to help the prognosis of someone with covid. If it is merely the administration of drugs , could this not be done in a non hospital setting

Oxygen therapy (CPAP I believe, the same therapy used for sleep apnoea), blood thinning and signs of clots (DVT, PE, etc) IV antibiotic support for secondary infections, close regular monitoring of bloods and ECG’s for monitoring organ response and detection of early distress/failure, IV hydration.

It’s not easy to move to a community setting without easy and quick access to various tools especially since the consequences aren’t uniform and are unpredictable.

fair points but it would be interesting to see how many patients are estimated to have been saved with ventilators for eg as opposed to " more harm than good " statements from many drs

Has anyone actually asked the elderly what they wish to do instead of people automatically assuming they all want to be holed away from friends and family with relatives determined to preserve life at " all costs"?

The average age of covid death is above natural life expectancy at 82 years old so the idea that it targets huge numbers of the vulnerable younger people is a myth or the average age of death wouldn't be higher than the lifespan a human can expect to live. Therefore we come to the argument of what is best for an elderly person and whether destroying the lives of millions of people to protect predominantly this age group is sensible.

If I were this age and were offered the choice between a reasonable possibility of dying naturally, and the near certainty of a horrible, painful death from Covid by drowning in my own secretions, somehow I don't think I'd be offering myself up as a sacrifice to Covid.

@Codswallop20

Gah! I am so cross I have rejoined MN to comment after being majorly pissed off with many of you.

I am a nurse. Covid is real and if we do nothing now we are fucked.

We are late to the party as per fucking usual. Boris and his cronies are self serving pricks. The amount of YOUR MONEY they have given away to private companies throughout this pandemic is disgusting, deplorable and they answer to no one. (Similar to brexit issues but not going there today)

We have to follow the guidelines or people will die, or be disabled long term/for life. We don't know! But the guidelines have always been woolly and shit apart from the initial lockdown.

People have stopped caring. I get it. I am fed up and so is everyone else. But the government need a big fat slap, we are pissed about, lied to and belittled.

There should be some holding to account through this process. We should not give up our freedom for nothing, or our taxes, economy, jobs, NHS.

We should stop, we should lockdown, we should lockdown properly schools and everything. Christmas is a pipe dream and it will not happen. Boris is cruel to allow the hope in order to make us comply.

This will not last forever but we are in the shit for a good while, and we bloody well should ask the questions of the people who put us here.

OP, I think you framed the question badly but I wholeheartedly agree that we should not blindly do as we are told, as much of that is bullshit. I worry we will never have freedom again, but I also know we have to lockdown or we are all buggered.

What a pickle.

Great post.

I work in NHS also and worked throughout pandemic on front line.
I had my first day off for two weeks annual leave two weeks ago. I was exhausted and could not move out of bed really for a week.
Unless you have been in the position; I feel you think you know, but you have no idea.

I appreciate how hard it has been and continues to be however everyone has made sacrifices. We have another few weeks to push through. Keep going.

@MoonJelly ... agreed .. my dad is 90 .. goes for a walk every day , does his shopping, cooks, washes, irons, is very busy !! .. don't see why he has to get sacrificed to Covid .( he's being very sensible also ) .. can't believe the lack of empathy on this thread .. maybe the OP just kicked a few cages last night , sobered up and disappeared ????

The average age of death is irrelevant

It's the overwhelming of hospital, and the provision of love and dignity to others in our society that matters

We don't do much about asthma deaths because the cost benefit analysis says it's not worth it, although many disagree and have been campaigning about this for years

In this case the cost benefit analysis says it is worth it, not because of the lives directly saved, but because of all the potential fall out

Given that tens of thousand of children die from asthma each year, many of whom could be protected but it's not financially sensible, does that not indicate to you the scale of disaster if the virus is not controlled ?

@southeastdweller

Long Covid isn't a proven thing, what with this being a new virus.

100% wrong.

Respiratory illnesses mainly pneumonia are the commonest cause of death of older people and I see no particular reason why Covid would be a worse death than that. I would choose to have a syringe driver in the care home myself

But it's an individual thing
It's very very clear from how upset people got about LCP and DNAR and the Times article last week with the shocking application of a scoring system that many people want as much treatment as they can possibly get at any stage and they do not want it rationed by chance if success.

That's why I am puzzled by all those saying 'only the over 75s get ill' no need to lockdown. That's still quite enough people to take up all the beds unless you suggest we just leave them at home which people also seem to think would be a scandal.

In normal times about 70% of hospital beds are taken by over 65s.
If we let Covid rip through the elderly then all the NHS will be doing this winter is treating elderly COVID sufferers.

You cannot shield them all. There will be quite enough to keep us busy and to ensure that other services are stopped, staff redeployed etc etc.

I’m still here @Alicatz66 - just reading with interest.

There are a few other threads similar to this - it’s good to hear everyone’s views.

And yes I’m still ready to fight - the government. Not the virus.

@MoonJelly

Has anyone actually asked the elderly what they wish to do instead of people automatically assuming they all want to be holed away from friends and family with relatives determined to preserve life at " all costs"?

The average age of covid death is above natural life expectancy at 82 years old so the idea that it targets huge numbers of the vulnerable younger people is a myth or the average age of death wouldn't be higher than the lifespan a human can expect to live. Therefore we come to the argument of what is best for an elderly person and whether destroying the lives of millions of people to protect predominantly this age group is sensible.

If I were this age and were offered the choice between a reasonable possibility of dying naturally, and the near certainty of a horrible, painful death from Covid by drowning in my own secretions, somehow I don't think I'd be offering myself up as a sacrifice to Covid.

I dont think most logical elderly people would say they are prepared to stop living their life over 80 for a 5% chance of covid death compared to a 100% chance of death of anything in the not to distant future and a 60% chance of it being before 90... how long do you think that age group has to lock down in isolation, what are they waiting for exactly? That said it should be personal choice and I would support each individuals person to choose rather than the government deciding for them

Not all elderly people agree with you moonjelly, respect their wishes as the day free will disappears we revert to becoming a completely totalitarian society

Why don't you move to America? Trump doesn't care about Covid so you can live happily mask free!

Just wanted to say that this is nonsense.
Many states have stricter mask mandates than England.
My dc have been wearing masks in school full time for months along with any other dc over the age of 2.
All indoor areas require masks and although there are some legal exceptions I haven't actually seen anyone without a mask inside for months.
Don't believe every headline about the USA.

@Dan1980

Has anyone actually asked the elderly what they wish to do instead of people automatically assuming they all want to be holed away from friends and family with relatives determined to preserve life at " all costs"?

The average age of covid death is above natural life expectancy at 82 years old so the idea that it targets huge numbers of the vulnerable younger people is a myth or the average age of death wouldn't be higher than the lifespan a human can expect to live. Therefore we come to the argument of what is best for an elderly person and whether destroying the lives of millions of people to protect predominantly this age group is sensible.

A human being at 80 has a 5% chance of dying of covid if catching it ( 1 in 20) yet has a 60% chance of dying before their 90th birthday of something else. Is a logical course of action to say to someone in this age group " If you see loved ones, friends , family and retain as normal a life as possible you have a 5% chance of death from catching covid. If you don't you can spend what little time you are likely to have on this earth for many living in social isolation /misery with most hobbies/interests gone and avoid a 5% chance of a covid death.... but you are 60% likely to die before your 90th birthday whatever you do. This doesn't seem a very logical course of action for someone in this age bracket to take. Then you factor in the damage done by missed cancer screenings ,dental abscesses not being treated, loss of houses with jobs being lost and the course of action proposed of lockdowns becomes to look more like insanity with no perspective on the finite lives we all have.

Quality of life is as important as longevity and expecting elderly people in their 80s to be holed away wasting what limited time they have left whilst destroying the lives of the younger generations is insane in my view

So shall we refuse hospital admission to anyone over the age of 80 and leave them to gasp their last breaths at home alone?

This is about hospital admissions and not deaths (other than that most deaths occur after hospital admission).

it would be interesting to see how many patients are estimated to have been saved with ventilators for eg as opposed to " more harm than good " statements from many drs

By the time patients require a ventilator their overall chances aren’t great (I want to say 50:50 but I don’t think that’s right and it’s more like 80:20). The patients who are ventilated will already have a profile meaning they stand a reasonable chance of surviving the procedure, many more will never be considered for ventilation. It’s been a few months since it’s been recognised ventilators are the saviour here and patients have much better prognosis’s with less invasive therapies. However the therapies that are required need professional, well timed interventions in a hospital setting. It’s impossible to tell whether the patient recently admitted is going to be fine after some CPAP therapy supporting them or whether their kidneys are going to fail or they’ve developed myocarditis and are on the verge of a heart attack.

I think it’s a fair presumption to make that there’s a large percentage of patients (>50% of those who reach the point of hospital admission) who would die without hospital based intervention. Indeed we saw that from the first lockdown when community deaths were first included in the figures. A lot of those were from care homes but there were a sizeable amount of people who just never made it due to admittance criteria at the time and lack of quick intervention. The kind of care and observation people receive in hospital is all based on supporting the body fight the infection, if they can’t keep the struggling bits going then it’s more likely to be fatal.

ventilators aren’t the saviour here

There is also an element of being responsible for your own health. As stated, I would support someone elderly to receive the care they need but also support their wishes to make an informed decision of whether they wish to see relatives or not.

If I had a chronic lung issue I wouldn't ask for the road to close outside my house to prolong my life- I'd try to move to an area more suitable. if someone vulnerable was concerned about covid, they should be given the financial support to be able to alter their circumstances - I realise in many cases it's not straight forward but it's preferable to " Everyone needs to stay in for a virus that kills those on average over the expected age of death for a human being".

The definition of a deadly virus is reducing the life expectancy of a person beyond what can be reasonably expected so age of death is relevant. I would argue someone looking to protect the health of a person at all costs over 80 meaning lives of younger people are likely to be lost is actually incredibly selfish and short sighted.

Of course no government would state this as we all have elderly relatives and they would lose any election so all countries are locked into the path forward apart from the likes of sweden etc with far fewer deaths from covid and non covid ailments. The fact a person over 80 has less than a 1 in 20 chance of dying from it means cancer , dementia are all much greater threats but again this isnt said as the government will be accused of sacrificing the 1 in 20 despite many more dying with long term health/economic fallout so round and round we go on this carousel of madness

I would be genuinely interested what hospitals are doing exactly to help the prognosis of someone with covid. If it is merely the administration of drugs , could this not be done in a non hospital setting?

Do you seriously think patients would be in hospital if they could be treated at home?

And yes I’m still ready to fight - the government. Not the virus.

OP how are you going to fight? Like what are you actually going to do?

I’m genuinely interested in what you think will make a difference or not make things worse.