Secondary schools are fucked

[noblegiraffe]

The latest ONS data for infection rates in pupils in Y7-11 shows that they are now nearly as high for university students, the ones who were getting blamed for catching it at pubs and parties.

The latest data for number of cases per 100,000 in each year group looks alarming, even more so when you realise that the latest column is an underestimate. The figures for Y11 in particular are horrendous, and this is a crucial exam year group.

Attendance data for secondary schools is going down each week - 82% according to the latest data (excluding those on half term).

On 22nd October an estimated 557,000 pupils were off school, either isolating, or with covid (this includes primaries, I can't see the data for just secondaries).

On 22nd October, 55% of secondary schools had at least 1 pupil self-isolating due to contact with a case in school.

There is, as far as a I can see, no discussion from those in charge about what to do about this. Schools are a priority, except when it comes to talking about them. Data is hidden, covered up or just ignored. People use arguments about primary schools (parents need to work!) to apply to all ages of pupil.

Secondary schools were set up with 'bubbles'. Risk assessments were based on premise that bubbles would be mixing, and would be sent home if there were cases. This was abandoned a few weeks into term when the DfE elbowed PHE out of the way and took over the the decisions about who would be sent home. Now only 'close contacts' are sent home rather than whole bubbles, which makes no sense in the context of what we know about covid transmission in poorly ventilated spaces with no social distancing. Kids who were told that they could mix 'because they were in a bubble' are now wondering why they're in a bubble but not in a bubble in any meaningful sense.

If, when it comes to any upcoming lockdown, the message is 'schools will stay open' and there is no distinguishing between primary and secondary, and no discussion about how this trend in secondary can be addressed, then be aware that any lockdown isn't going to solve the problem because it's spreading in secondary schools.

PS: I don't want schools to close but they shouldn't stay open as they are because the data shows there's a real problem with as they are. I do want a discussion about specifically secondary so talk about primary elsewhere. If you find the data scary then that's a problem with the situation, not me posting it. I don't want any anecdotes about how your school hasn't had any cases unless you put the word 'yet' at the end of it. If your school has masks everywhere that's great for your school, but the government says their use should be avoided in classrooms and their use in corridors is only mandated in lockdown areas. Schools are not all open in Europe.

Some suggestions: masks, ventilation, review of who is being sent home, regular testing (especially if there are cases), review of fines for pupils who would be safer at home, review of working conditions for ECV teachers, it to be made clear that if a school sends your child home they are legally required to isolate.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8571373/Headteachers-SUED-irrationally-forcing-pupils-wear-face-masks.html

A) That's from the Daily Mail. Has it actually happened? I generally ignore stories from the Daily Mail. B) That's not what being sued means.

I’m suggesting that head teachers may not introduce masks in classrooms because it’s against government guidance and therefore will make things difficult for them to justify with batshit parents.

They are on telly telling us how grim it is and yet... We have the stress of sending dc into school and being fined!! Shocking!!

Ffs.

It's grim, it's a awful but send dc in. 🤔🤔😭😭

You have pupil and parents Moaning about the cold too..
Why not let them keep their dc at home.

For the first time in our lives, the NHS will not be there for us or our families..

But tra la... Into school you go!!

Fuck sake.

@noblegiraffe

So given that schools broke up for half term on either the 16th or the 23rd, if schools were the cause of transmission, then we'd expect to see a drop in prevalence in school aged children on or around the 21st. Then from the 28th you'd expect to see another fall, since I believe more children have the later weeks holiday.

Most schools didn’t break up on the 16th.

As well as incubation periods you have not factored in the time taken to get the test results and prepare the reports.

“In the research study, it takes a day to get the swab to the labs, then often three to fourdays to do the tests because we are behind the queue of all the symptomatic testing.”

This week’s data doesn’t represent half term transmission.

@noblegiraffe

You agree that some children broke up on 16th, yes? And therefore this means that there were less children in school for a week from the 16th than when no schools had broken up.

Therefore we would expect less cases from the 21st, which is 16th plus 5 days incubation.

Even more children broke up on 23rd (and some children went back) so there were less children in school still in the week from 23rd. So given that there are less children in school from 23rd onward we would expect a further drop in cases from 28th (23rd plus 5 days incubation).

I agree with you that there is a lag in reporting. This means that the number of cases that is rising, when if schools were spreading more than the general community we would expect them to fall is currently being under-reported. This means that if you allow for the lag, you actually prove my analysis over yours more strongly, rather than disproving it.

You're a secondary maths teacher, right? You must be able to do this simple analysis, so I can only assume you are being purposefully disingenuous in your interpretation of the statistics to follow your own agenda and bamboozle those who don't have the skills to interpret data meaningfully (my GCSE age children can do this level of interpretation/analysis confidently, although to be fair we're all of a mathematical/analytical mindset).

For what its worth, I strongly agree with your premise that we should ensure that schools are able to remain open safely. I don't agree with your opinion that they are currently less safe than the general community or that they are particular spreading grounds for the virus.

I do think we will have to shut some schools for short periods (say a fortnight or so), at times, because some schools may have a level of infection that becomes unsafe for staff and pupils. I think its vitally important that through these periods schools continue to provide cohort appropriate remote learning so that students whose schools have to shut for short periods are not disadvantaged. Thankfully very many schools and very many teachers are working hard to ensure that could happen, and there are many examples where schools were able to provide a full, meaningful education to their students throughout lockdown.

Oh come on, Boris has said that he is extremely grateful to teachers! So that's ok then!

I’m suggesting that head teachers may not introduce masks in classrooms because it’s against government guidance and therefore will make things difficult for them to justify with batshit parents

I guess that comes with the job. If most parents at a school don't want it then it's reasonable not to do it of course.

You're a secondary maths teacher, right? You must be able to do this simple analysis, so I can only assume you are being purposefully disingenuous in your interpretation of the statistics to follow your own agenda and bamboozle those who don't have the skills to interpret data meaningfully

Eh? I’m saying that data reported this week represents transmission last week when the vast majority of kids were still in school.

cohort appropriate remote learning

What does that mean? In plain English.

@noblegiraffe your data is correct and so are your assertions.

Well from the briefing:

"Schools, colleges and universities to remain open
Unlike the first national lockdown, schools, colleges and universities will be allowed to stay open.
"We cannot let this virus damage our children's futures even more than it has already," says Johnson.
He urges parents to continue sending their children to school. "

"I do think we will have to shut some schools for short periods (say a fortnight or so), at times, because some schools may have a level of infection that becomes unsafe for staff and pupils"

The school in at had 30% of staff absent in the last 2 weeks. At least half had tested positive covid. We had 2 kids a day testing positive also. No action was taken. I'm curious at what level of infection things become unsafe because at present I feel like that the view at phe is that risk to kids is low and they don't care how many teachers are getting infected.

Note Boris blaming the virus there and not his government's decisions or actions....

@mrsm43s you made a big mistake in your calculations. You said that some schools broke up earlier, so we would expect to see less cases from this point.

Not at all.

Lets say we have 100 schools. 10 stop a week early. The other 90 go up by, oooh, let's say, 20% in a week.

Let's be generous and assume the 10 who stop a week early get no cases at all. But the other 90 go up by 20%.

90 x 1.2 = 108

We would have an 8% rise in cases (as opposed to a 20% rise had they all stayed in school).

Yours faithfully,
A maths teacher.

How can they fine and prosecute parents for not sending their children in?! This is fucking madness.

Are LA's actually implementing fines and threatening prosecution, does anyone know?

There are very important safeguarding reasons for schools to keep tabs on pupils and accelerate persistent absences through LAs.

One of my ds's friends went off radar during the spring/summer. School phoned and went round (I know this because his teacher asked if he'd heard from her). With no legal requirement to send children to school, they couldn't pursue their usual absence procedures.

Another of ds's friend's long-term foster placement broke down very near the end of the summer holidays. She moved 200miles away overnight by herself, no siblings. Having to ensure that she was at the right school seemed to be the only motivating factor for social services to find her a placement in the local area. She possibly would have been left to wither on the vine miles away from her friends and support network if there hadn't been a mandatory requirement for her to be in school.

“If, when it comes to any upcoming lockdown, the message is 'schools will stay open' and there is no distinguishing between primary and secondary, and no discussion about how this trend in secondary can be addressed, then be aware that any lockdown isn't going to solve the problem because it's spreading in secondary schools.”

From my OP. They’re ignoring the problem in secondary schools. No extra protection for teachers.

Rushed through, poorly thought-out, reactivate rather than proactive.

Typical of their incompetence so far.

@noblegiraffe What measures are in place in your school? I know you post regularly about secondary schools in general, but I don't think I've seen you post about what your school is (or isn't) doing re Covid. I assume you have spoken to your Head about masks, sanitiser, windows open etc? Because if it's possible in our school, it must be possible in yours.

The only way that schools staying open will work is if students and teachers stay off if they are sick. Even if they think it’s just a cold.

Yes, it’s not want we’re used to but there needs to be a policy that anyone that turns up sick gets sent home. There also needs to be testing for more than just the three symptoms for students and teachers.

@Beebityboo

How can they fine and prosecute parents for not sending their children in?! This is fucking madness.

Many LAs are not pursuing fines, but are still checking why kid is not in school.

I assume you have spoken to your Head about masks, sanitiser, windows open etc?

Of course. In my school it is generally agreed that the Head is doing as good a job as they can within the guidelines and level of funding, and it's the government that are a useless pile of wank.

@bluetongue

The only way that schools staying open will work is if students and teachers stay off if they are sick. Even if they think it’s just a cold.

Yes, it’s not want we’re used to but there needs to be a policy that anyone that turns up sick gets sent home. There also needs to be testing for more than just the three symptoms for students and teachers.

I agree. We need to be cautious and not dismissive and say oh it is just a cold blah blah blah.

Oh OK, fair enough. What exactly is your Head doing? Do you have masks in corridors? Windows open? etc.

It would be helpful to know , as you always seem so angry on your threads! So it seems as though you feel you are being let down, whereas the schools I'm involved with have been very proactive in doing far more than the government has suggested, and nobody has sued them and our cases are not going through the roof.

Not criticising you; just politely asking what the position actually is in your school.