Lockdown in England from next week **title edited by MNHQ**

[Velvetpeel]

The Times is reporting that we are headed for a month long lockdown until Dec 1st.
No details yet...
Why do they always announce things on the drip feed - makes it all even more stressful

"Problem is, the rates will come down massively, we will all be told how good we have been, then in December"

Will they though? According to hospital admissions (:which is what is driving the lockdown timing)

Tier 1 doubles every 7- 10 days or so
Tier 2 between 14 to 21 days
Tier 3 somewhere around 21 days plus.

Lockdown in April halves them every 2 weeks
This time compliance might be lower and with schools open it might halve them every 3 or 4 weeks.

Seems that what ni did/are doing which was close schools for 2 weeks then lockdown everything else for another 2 was a sensible compromise. As has happened so often this year, boris' intransigence means the chance to minimise the disruption to education has been missed.

Either way, we might well find that come December the lockdown is extended for a further 2 weeks.

At least a lockdown is clear cut and everyone knows what is expected. No ambiguity.

People know what's expected now, it's not rocket science. People have just had enough of all this and will do what they want.

If everything else is closed I'm not sure how you can't abide by it but if you mean mixing households then if people do that they are just thick!

I think we've long established Boris's idea he can rely on common sense in the UK is bollocks. Too many are selfish, reckless, entitled or just plain idiots. We got about 6 weeks worth of vast majority compliance in the spring and that was because it was actually enforced and people were scared of catching this new virus.

I'm in a tier 3 area and the roads are constantly busy. Household mixing is banned, most things are shut. Bearing in mind it's been half term this week, where is everyone going? They're not all going to Tesco. Back in April the roads were dead and people still had to shop then.

It is only on mumsnet parents want schools to close.

66million people in the UK, at 100k/day it would take nearly 2 years for everyone to have it. They don't know what the herd immunity level is - but lets just say it's 80% (like polio, measles needs 95%) then that's 53 million people who need to be immune, which would take 520 days at 100k/day.

No, because you aren’t taking into account the Spring peak.

I think the lockdown will extend until Xmas or so.

@PollyPelargonium52

It is only on mumsnet parents want schools to close.

And a lockdown!

They can keep schools open and it will still significantly slow the spread. It's a reasonable halfway house.

I don't WANT schools to close, I just don't think a lockdown without one will work.

@walksen

"Problem is, the rates will come down massively, we will all be told how good we have been, then in December"

Will they though? According to hospital admissions (:which is what is driving the lockdown timing)

Tier 1 doubles every 7- 10 days or so
Tier 2 between 14 to 21 days
Tier 3 somewhere around 21 days plus.

Lockdown in April halves them every 2 weeks
This time compliance might be lower and with schools open it might halve them every 3 or 4 weeks.

Seems that what ni did/are doing which was close schools for 2 weeks then lockdown everything else for another 2 was a sensible compromise. As has happened so often this year, boris' intransigence means the chance to minimise the disruption to education has been missed.

Either way, we might well find that come December the lockdown is extended for a further 2 weeks.

Boris just wants to go down as the man that 'saved Christmas', that's what these measures are about.

What he needed to do was a circuit break for a couple of weeks during half term - with everything shut - but he wouldn't because Starmer called for it.

@Glitterynails

Leaks to the press have been happening all the way through this. Michael Gove’s wife works for the Mail, in case that wasn’t known widely. She used to work for the Times.

Yes and she wrote an article criticising him and his policy in the Mail. Funnily how all you conspiracy theorists never actually read the paper.

Top pic is from a news article in the Mail on Sunday about how Gove was responsible for the strict 10pm lockdown.

Bottom pic is from Sarah Vine's column in the same newspaper on the same day criticising her husband's policy.

@annabel85

If everything else is closed I'm not sure how you can't abide by it but if you mean mixing households then if people do that they are just thick!

I think we've long established Boris's idea he can rely on common sense in the UK is bollocks. Too many are selfish, reckless, entitled or just plain idiots. We got about 6 weeks worth of vast majority compliance in the spring and that was because it was actually enforced and people were scared of catching this new virus.

I'm in a tier 3 area and the roads are constantly busy. Household mixing is banned, most things are shut. Bearing in mind it's been half term this week, where is everyone going? They're not all going to Tesco. Back in April the roads were dead and people still had to shop then.

I posted another thread about our neighbours having a party last night. We're in London so also no households supposed to be mixing. Wankers.

As a family we have lost too many people this year. I refuse to lose anymore so will be keeping my children at home and take the fines. I live in the North in a place that is in the top 10 for highest cases. Children from the local schools are out in crowds, people refuse to wear masks and social distancing is just not done by far too many people. I am lucky enough to be able to homeschool mine (or maybe unlucky as I am disabled) and they enjoy being at home so no damage to their mental health will occur.
In my opinion schools should stay open to children who need to go in, either due to being vulnerable or children of "keyworkers" and give the parents who can safely keep their children at home the choice to do so.

Republic of Ireland are a week and a bit into a hard lockdown, with schools open.

The numbers are coming down very significantly.

In fairness, what we’re seeing now is the result of slightly less harsh measures taken earlier that banned any mixing of households. That seems to be the key measure.

The whole situation is such a mess and I don't have any idea of what a solution would be now. No one I know has any trust or faith in the government. All our family members in tier 3 (or whatever the current highest restrictions are called!) haven't followed any guidance so I can't see them not mixing if a full lockdown was imposed.

The area we live in seems relatively unaffected. I don't know anyone here who has had the virus. I think if I knew someone personally who had been seriously ill or died then I would feel differently but I am so detached from the bigger picture. All the people I know who are suffering are those who have lost jobs and are struggling financially.

I just can't see a good way forward. I don't want vulnerable people to be locked away and risk their lives but I also don't want my friends to lose their jobs and homes. I am sick of worrying about it all.

@DBML

As a teacher I’m going to do one of two things:

Option 1: if it’s ok for me to mix with 500 secondary age children a week, then it’s fine for me to visit my friends and family. I am not sacrificing my own well-being, just to go to work.

Option 2: if cases continue to spread in school and I am still expected to go in at my own personal risk, then I will take the long term stress leave that I probably should already be on.

How stupid. Well done for wanting to transfer your high risk on to your friends and family! You're soooo clever!

I think it's horrendous that the government are saying that schools stay open during this next national lockdown. Wondered if I should go against this and keep my children at home whilst this virus is extremely bad. At least they'll be safe out of the way of this. They can do school work online. There has already been reports of children with the Coronavirus in our local secondary school where my child goes. As we know, this can be passed onto others. Surely we have the human right to keep our children safe. In this case away from the Coronavirus.

@RedToothBrush

Its not about deaths from covid.

Its about hospital bed management and the complete collapse of the nhs system. Which would impact the availability of care to children in other areas leading to their deaths.

Covid causes about x10 the amount of hospitalisations than flu. Thats the problem. And once you hit the point where hospitals are full you get an effect where the number of deaths from all causes skyrockets with people dying from all sorts of managable ailments.

This is the bit the 'its only the flu' crew dont grasp.

We have one of the lowest number of hospital beds (remember its about staffed hospital beds) Europe and one of the highest rates of economic deprivation and poor underlying health in Europe.

This is not a pretty combination.

This. I really don't understand why people aren't understanding that it is not about deaths from COVID.

That said, I am not looking forward to another lockdown and am feeling really anxious about it. I am dreading that I might have to wfh full time again, and worried about how the isolation might affect my mental health. At least this time we have support bubbles so I will be able to see my DP (assuming that it will be permissible for us to walk or get the bus to each other's homes to spend time with each other)

I don't think it is a UK lockdown? Press seem to be saying England only?

The government have completely lost control and respect which doesn't help at all. Where is the personal responsibility though? Exercise, essential shopping, school, work and emergencies aside people need to stay at home.

Boris wants to go down as the man that saved Christmas
Boris is cancelling Christmas for many who's earnings are going to be affected by lockdown. Pointless having Christmas day with no presents under the tree!

@pinkearedcow you are right, it is just the English, health is a devolved matter.

Does anyone think all European governments are banking on a vaccine being ready end of this month? France, Germany etc it’s all for a month. The only way they can justify lifting a national lockdown in a month (cause death rates won’t have fallen by then, potentially will be higher) is if we have a vaccine ready to rollout.

My concern is what if this doesn’t happen?

@pinkearedcow

I don't think it is a UK lockdown? Press seem to be saying England only?

On account of Wales, Scotland and NI already being on lockdown.

If the gov is monitoring web chatter for reactions to leaked lockdown articles in the papers, may I ask for dentists/orthodontists and medical services to stay open please?
Thanks.