Lockdown in England from next week **title edited by MNHQ**

[Velvetpeel]

The Times is reporting that we are headed for a month long lockdown until Dec 1st.
No details yet...
Why do they always announce things on the drip feed - makes it all even more stressful

Can someone post evidence from a reputable source that schools are a key driver of Covid infections - everyone is saying it but where is the empirical evidence?

In the absence of proper evidence for or against, I don't see why people shouldn't theorise.

People went back to work, no rise in cases. Non-essential shops reopened, no rise in cases. Cinemas and gyms reopened, no rise in cases. Schools opened, sudden rise in cases.

It's also quite logical that a secondary school full of teenagers with little regard for social distancing, mixing for prolonged periods in closed environments before returning home to their families, would be one of the potentially biggest sources of spread.

@Littleposh

How do people not understand that the whole reason schools can stay open is because we sacrifice other freedoms?? Does your rampant desire to go to the gym or the pub or dorothy bloody perkins outweigh the educational, emotional and mental positives of your children still being able to go to school??

To be fair people should really have been doing that of education was such a priority since the schools went back. Chris Whitty was right that there was very little wiggle room after the summer before schools opened up. The government should have said if you want schools to stay open you need to really cut back on other points of contact.

... but then again only 8% of the workforce have school aged children so I'm guessing here about 3/4% of the total popularity have school aged children so protecting school reopening was never going to be in the forefront of everyone's minds.

*population not popularity

I’ve done nothing and been nowhere really since schools went back.

It's also quite logical that a secondary school full of teenagers with little regard for social distancing, mixing for prolonged periods in closed environments before returning home to their families, would be one of the potentially biggest sources of spread

I think there's some truth in that - my eldest is at college and even though they have to wear a mask when they're walking the corridors, he says it's impossible to social distance and feels weird as you have to social distance everywhere else but can't at college.
They all mix together as far as I'm aware too - as in not just in your class bubble.
Youngest in high school bit better as they only mix within their class bubbles but it certainly doesn't seem the case college wise, and I'm assuming uni too.
It's bound to raise when schools/colleges/unis go back, but what are we supposed to do, keep them off forever?!
They need education

@Quaagars 'some truth'? It's the total truth and some!

Blended learning for above year 7. Year 7 to remain in school I would say (purely because of the childcare argument... now I'll get the education argument thrown at me!)

There were quite a few studies suggesting that schools would increase R by 0.3 to 0.5.

The Ons infection survey shows case numbers rising in all school age groups and fastest in the older age groups.

There has not been widespread testing in schools during outbreaks or mobile units sent out like they have been in other workplaces.

And whilst not a reputable source staff infection in my school is running between 15% and 30% when the community rate is 3%. This is despite spending breaks and lunch with form groups not coffee with colleagues.

Bear in mind that when universities tested halls of residence 80% of cases had no symptoms. Lots of people think cases go up due to increased testing. It is quite likely that increased testing in schools would show there are more infections than we think.

We may see what keeping schools open during a lockdown will do to the r rate as France are doing it right now. Let's hope theirs still drops below 1

Do you have a legal minimum of adults to children? I’m guessing supply teachers are in short supply?

We don't have supply teachers. We have cover supervisors. This can be anyone from kitchen staff/admin/librarian staff. Means not having to pay anyone. Secondary school.

SLT no where to be found...

@GoldenOmber

No it won't be 'pointless' without schools closed.

Look. Here is Ireland's second wave. They are in the middle of really heavy restrictions at the moment, starting late October, and that's starting to bring the cases down again. (The bars are the daily cases, the blue line is the 7-day average.) And that is with schools still open. So clearly it's not pointless to do this without closing schools, and it can work.

People who have decided off their own backs that it's 'not a proper lockdown' if schools are open, therefore they aren't going to bother with any of the other restrictions they don't fancy either, are not helping.

Cases seem to be falling in Liverpool after their huge surge as well. Clearly it's not impossible for numbers to go down even while schools are open.

I find this really sad, everybody wants it to be gone.

The idea of the new hospitals opening without enough staff to make them meaningful makes me feel very angry towards the government.

What a waste of money, could have the furlough money have gone to better use? Like pumping it into the NHS whilst letting businesses operate normally?

I really don't know.

Hopefully childcare stays open.

Why do they leak news like this so late at night?

Teachers.... with lots of staff off, do you double up on classes? Who teaches the sick teachers kids?

Do you have a legal minimum of adults to children? I’m guessing supply teachers are in short supply?

Also, are headteachers stepping up and getting stuck in too?or are they in offices ?

I work as admin in a secondary school and our self-isolating teachers taught the children at school and those also SI at home.

So surreal experience where I would go to a classroom and see students being taught virtually via the interactive board. At the same time students from home were following the same lesson.

The students at school were physically supervised while this happened - by another teacher. And yes our Head both teaches and supervises.

This only worked because so many students were learning from home. Due to the number of SI teachers.

@GirlCrush

Teachers.... with lots of staff off, do you double up on classes? Who teaches the sick teachers kids?

Do you have a legal minimum of adults to children? I’m guessing supply teachers are in short supply?

Also, are headteachers stepping up and getting stuck in too?or are they in offices ?

So far we've been getting supply teachers in where normal staff are off, and there doesn't seem to have been any issue getting enough people in for cover. We've run out of money though, so no idea what will happen next half term. There's not physically enough space to double up classes. My guess is SLT will step in first, then they'll start getting regular teachers to do (more) cover during their planning periods, and if it comes to it finally recruit every member of non-teaching staff they can persuade to supervise classes. If there's still not enough staff to supervise everyone safely then they'd have to send pupils home I suppose.

A bit of a side question, but are schools really spreading this is large numbers? Universities definitely are, from tbe stats I've seen each has been hit with minimum of 100 cases and has been spreading in university towns significantly. However schools outbreaks seem to be 2 or 3 pupils not large numbers? There doesn't seem to be a massive issue in schools?

Sage recommended this weeks ago. It could have been shorter than it’s going to be had the government acted sooner. The learnt nothing. Psychos and idiots. I’m baffled as to why Wales did it first when England seems to have higher rates.

Every time there has been a case at Dds secondary - 3 times to my knowledge the school has been told not to burst a bubble. 250 kids btw. It makes you wonder just how high rates are in the school. Personally I think it’s a lot higher but up to 80% of people are asymptomatic.

To clarify 250 per bubble....

@ARoseInHarlem

I don’t see why schools and universities have to shut down. The point isn’t to prevent anyone and everyone from catching the virus: that would be impossible. The point is to limit the number of people who need treatment when they catch it. So, best to shut down everything except what’s required to keep the economy ticking over. Children at school is crucial to that.

I also don’t see the problem with kicking the can down the road, as a strategy. Why not, until a vaccine is rolled out? Periodic, scheduled, shut downs that people can plan around (people being schools/businesses/ everyone) to keep hospital admissions stable and to give healthcare workers a chance to breathe and work under reasonable conditions.

Shhhhhhh you're not supposed to be rational!

I said to my husband, the lockdown will be coming any moment and so did he. Not surprised in the slightest.

My work Instagram is chocker block with everyone going out for meals with 10 other people sitting close by, parties,events and weddings and christening and playing pass the parcel with everyones baby. Drives me nuts. No wonder this is bloody spreading. Just saw a video of a girl in london had her 23rd birthday in her lounge absolutely packed like sardines with them all videoing her dancing. I'm all for a small get together but this is getting ridiculous now.
One girl I know as well, is telling me she cant believe it herself , cant believe people aren't social distancing and sticking to their bobbles, yet happy to send me pictures of her everyday meeting up with anyone and everyone and minding peoples small children and babies along with her vulnerable father who is in and out of hospital like a yo yo also looking after the babies. .... seriously...
At my youngest two kids school, people are high fiving and hugging and standing next to each other as close as can be.
I mean come on this is ridiculous.

This is how it's all spreading. .....

Why do they leak news like this so late at night?

I don’t know. But it makes it difficult to sleep. Makes me hate this bloody government even more.

The stupidity of not closing schools is breathtaking.

Our primary has one bubble down as there’s a confirmed case ( teacher)
My daughter (in a different bubble) sits next to a boy who’s sister is off.

People will not go back to strict lockdown while their children are mixing. I’m not sure what the best plan is, but I’m leaning toward just carrying on now. We missed the boat with early lockdowns sadly.

@ShortFatandDumpy @Mamimawr @torthecatlady

Cardiff will be making the decisions for us.