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Original poster

Are we heading for another national lockdown

424 replies

thebeachismyhappyplace2 · 30/10/2020 16:18

Do you think we are going in the same direction as France and Germany? And do you think schools will stay open if we do?

OP posts:
Ecosse · 30/10/2020 21:54

@user1471530109

We will not have a vaccine that prevents transmission for many years, if ever.

Dustysilkflowers · 30/10/2020 21:57

[quote Ecosse]@Appuskidu

Why are the lives of elderly people worth more than the lives of DC who need an education?

Is it because the reductions in life expectancy caused by DC being out of school are caused by lockdown rather than COVID so don’t matter?[/quote]
I have an 88 year old grandmother who has health issues and is has already been isolating since March. She’s deteriorated so much.

If some one came out and said ‘ hey lock down will last six months and this virus would disappear’. I’d buy in to it 100%

But no one can say that will happen. It could be here another year. In the mean time I’ve lost my business and my kids have lost the best part of 18 months of schooling and im about to lose my house.

Sorry but I’ve got to be pragmatic about it. There is no quick fix to this. This isn’t going to disappear in January. There is the strong likely hood it’s here next year too.

user1471530109 · 30/10/2020 21:57

If the vulnerable are vaccinated, they won't be ill and in hospital...Confused. Which is the point, is it not?

WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 21:57

[quote Ecosse]@Ijustcantcope

All a ‘circuit breaker’ (which is really just a PR term for a lockdown) would have done is kick the can down the road.

We locked down for 3 months and cases started rising as soon as things opened up. 2 weeks would do nothing.[/quote]
Ecosse you are showing a massive misunderstanding here.
Putting a dampener on infections is not "just kicking the can down the road". Although bthat in itself is valuable as it gives NHS staff a breather, and gets us closer to a vaccine, and allowed the disastrous Test and trace to actually get some competence and start working.
A dampener will also decelerate infection rate. Put the breaks on a bit so too many people aren't all ill at the same time. Allow the NHS to do cancer screening, operations etc instead of having staff off ill or seconded to Covid everything. It will allow people confidence to go and spend their money to keep the economy going. It will prevent thousands from being incapacitated through long Covid.

MiniTheMinx · 30/10/2020 21:58

[quote Ecosse]@Ijustcantcope

All a ‘circuit breaker’ (which is really just a PR term for a lockdown) would have done is kick the can down the road.

We locked down for 3 months and cases started rising as soon as things opened up. 2 weeks would do nothing.[/quote]
You have no understanding of maths do you? nada.

Where would we be in terms of daily positive test results, R no, and daily death rates if we hadn't locked down?

Look up an idiots guide to exponential growth, then factor in season, other variables such as behaviour and measures short of lockdown. So where would we be now?

WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 21:58

[quote Ecosse]@user1471530109

We will not have a vaccine that prevents transmission for many years, if ever.[/quote]
That's not what the preliminary results are showing.

CoffeeandCroissant · 30/10/2020 21:59

According to The Times

" Boris Johnson is preparing to introduce national lockdown restrictions from next Wednesday.

The restrictions could see everything except nurseries, schools, universities and non-essential shops close until Dec 1.

PM press conference on Monday. "

Source: mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1322294630906503171

Ijustcantcope · 30/10/2020 21:59

[quote Ecosse]@Ijustcantcope

All a ‘circuit breaker’ (which is really just a PR term for a lockdown) would have done is kick the can down the road.

We locked down for 3 months and cases started rising as soon as things opened up. 2 weeks would do nothing.[/quote]
If I hear ‘kick the cab down the road’ once more I’ll bloody scream.

Of course that’s what we want to do!!!! We are possibly months away from a vaccine, new treatments are coming in which halve deaths. I know it’s hard for you to have any empathy from your responses on other threads but imagine that one of your loved ones catches Covid in 2 weeks time because we didn’t lockdown. And dies. Then in a month the trials of all the new drugs which look promising cut the death rate right down. What a waste of a life.

But no, none of that matters. You just don’t want to homeschool again Hmm Yes it was shit, we working parents were properly shafted but we can’t sacrifice lives (and many are not 80 as you always bang on about) just because our children will miss some months of school.

ohthegoats · 30/10/2020 22:00

We need to kick the can down the road so we can sort out track and trace. Testing needs to be sorted out, it's the only thing that can genuinely keep schools as open as possible. We then need to have people paid properly to isolate if they are positive.

But we have a shit government, it's pretty much everyone for themselves. So, good luck with that.

Itisasecret · 30/10/2020 22:00

Flag waving in the Telegraph tomorrow. It looks like they will be heading for a lockdown with educational settings open....for now.

I say for now because if the shit is still hitting the fan after they close everything and wreck the economy for no progress, again. He will be left with no choice. Like some regions in Italy.

The Telegraph seem to always get the heads up, they think he is announcing on Monday to begin Wednesday. It does appear, they will shut the economy. I wonder if they got the memo from mn posters who said this must not happen. Obviously not.

WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 22:01

Lots of people don't really understand exponential growth. But few people are as resolute to maintain that ignorance in the face of repeated efforts to explain.
One might think they are one of the people advising government policies.

MiniTheMinx · 30/10/2020 22:02

WhyNotMe40, yes, yes, this too. Lots of people have patiently explained all of this to Eccose over the last few weeks. I lose count of how many times it has been explained.

MiniTheMinx · 30/10/2020 22:04

Thanks CoffeeandCroissant

WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 22:04

I hear our world beating test and trace system is mainly run by management consultants rather than public health experts...

Completmentfille · 30/10/2020 22:05

I hear our world beating test and trace system is mainly run by management consultants rather than public health experts

Quite.

WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 22:11

Things might be going better if they had actually got in public health experts instead

MiniTheMinx · 30/10/2020 22:11

@WhyNotMe40

I hear our world beating test and trace system is mainly run by management consultants rather than public health experts...
Yep, apparently they know it all
WhyNotMe40 · 30/10/2020 22:14

Dunning-Kruger...

MiniTheMinx · 30/10/2020 22:15

Eccose I'd be interested in you opinion on how to sort out Track and trace. Last I read you thought it would be a good idea to deny school teachers and children tests, then hide all the data and fail to trace their contacts. Perhaps you should offer your services 😉

Inkpaperstars · 30/10/2020 22:16

@Codexdivinchi

Only a small percentage experience severe illness but a huge number of people get sick at the same time that small percentage amounts to a large number. Then on top of that there are all the people who are not severely sick but need time off work, or who get sicker later (most longer term cases are apparently initially mild and don't go to hospital). Then on top of that there are all the people who live with those regarded as vulnerable and so will be unwilling to carry on as normal while it rages unmitigated. Many people will not want to risk attending businesses as a consumer, and many businesses and workplaces will close to protect staff or due to low footfall, this was already occurring before lockdown. Or they will ask staff not to come in if even a mild illness might be covid. If the NHS is overwhelmed and not able to offer A and E services or treat any other conditions at all, many people will want to reduce their risk for that reason alone. The 'vulnerable' will not be able to shield as they include too many people including of working age, key workers, parents etc. Even if they could, the rest of society will be affected in too large numbers. People will see things that leave them too scared to participate too.

It's not possible to say exactly what would happen either way, but some things can be fairly definitely predicted.

Ecosse · 30/10/2020 22:16

@Ijustcantcope

It’s not about ‘struggling with home schooling’. ‘Blended learning’, ‘online school’- call it whatever you want. It means that the most disadvantaged DC (and many others) receive no education at all. Because they do not have the equipment, facilities or support.

Given the extent to which education impacts life chances and therefore life expectancy, this will result in people living shorter lives than they would have done had they received an education.

Why are the lives of 85 year olds more important to you than the lives of teenagers now who have their whole lives ahead of them?

Is it because COVID is the only thing you care about and all the deprivation, loss of education, denial of treatment for other conditions (25,000 excess deaths from non-COVID causes at home this year) and mental health issues do not matter?

Polkadotties · 30/10/2020 22:17

Daily Mail now reporting there will be a national lockdown next week

Titsywoo · 30/10/2020 22:17

I just had a breaking news thing pop up saying full national lockdown from next week?

FrippEnos · 30/10/2020 22:18

@Ecosse

Perhaps some testing capacity could be moved from schools for example.

Are you going to explain this or are you going to pretend that its true, like so much of the drivel that you post?

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