Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

That's based on pupil to teacher ratios.

Just to add to my post below, there's a big difference when talking about primary and secondary pupils and data and behaviour, impact of a school closing etc.

apple.news/A-V1VZx_pQJemtVN8g2uJtQ

Just saw this article on the rise in harm to, and deaths of, babies during the first lockdown. I'm not sure what the answer is but I can see there being an argument that, for that particular group (young children and babies) the harm of lockdown outweighs the benefit to them personally.

That said young children and babies also need access to a functional health service for non covid reasons and if the NHS collapsed that would obviously cause harm to that group.

I'm really hoping that the changes put in place during lockdown 2 help mitigate some of the direct risks to this group and generally.

Zoe is now down to 38,799 new daily cases, ~3% down on the previous day.

Just catching up...

It's obvious that there is some work going on around looking at the risk to teachers which, knowing the way the govt works, means that they have been spooked. However, it is also obvious that the data are being manipulated to suit the "teachers are safe" narrative that the govt has decided on. I understand the position of the teaching unions and definitely believe schools should shut this time, but I wish that they hadn't been so vocal because politically they have shot themselves in the foot as a Tory PM is never going to accept the request of a union. And fuck knows what Kier Starmer is doing.

Another thing that you boffins have probably already covered on these threads is sensitivity and specificity. No test will be 100% correct but the most we can hope for is to miss as few cases/have as few false positives as possible. However, sensitivity of a test is dependent on the population in which you are using it, who is doing the test and the concentration at which you judge that test to be positive. I admit I haven't looked into what constitutes this test, but anything involving DNA and antibodies in is affected by temperature and a hundred other things. If anyone is interested in further reading about tests and sensitivity google articles for the faecal immunochemical test which is used in asymptomatic patients (for sceeening), patients at low risk of having colorectal cancer and also patients who are being referred on a 2WW pathway for suspected colorectal cancer.

Yes that's horrific sunshine, sadly also to be predicted.

Secret, I've been interested to see that when you book a test online and go down the key workers route, there's an option to add whether you attend a place of education, and which one, worded too include any individual, pupil or any type of staff member. That's new.

@NeurotrashWarrior hmm, interesting. It makes me very angry on behalf of teachers that they are seen as less important than other workers.

I didn't see it like that, more that they're now asking at time of test booking if you work at or attend a school what school you attend or work at.

So collecting data at source?

@NeurotrashWarrior that's fine if they are going to use the data to make decisions re closing schools or make things safer for schools. I hope that is the case, but I'm worried that things are being manipulated by politicians. But ,at be im just cynical.

Thanks @Nellodee I hadn’t seen that from ROI, but have had a read through a few articles now.

Bear in mind that there are three other unions , plus UNISON for the non teachers. NEU is a bit of an outlier. The others are making less extreme requests/demands . Funnily enough, these don't make the press.

Reductions may also be from the earlier point with just general awareness that cases have gone up. The Tier system and lockdown are rules, but we saw back in March that awareness led to some taking earlier action.

It's good that they're capturing more data up-front. Are they also capturing workplace information?

It's obvious that there is some work going on around looking at the risk to teachers which, knowing the way the govt works, means that they have been spooked.

Something did sneak out a week or so ago in the BBC about numbers of teachers testing positive, and the data analysis right here on this thread put the risk of contracting it, for teachers, at about twice the rate of the general population. I think there are some stats somewhere which might be trying to come to light, which need massaging away!

@MRex I think they have always collected workplace information when you book a test?

Our head told us the number of staff absent in our county has skyrocketed since half term : due to a combination of positive tests , awaiting tests and SI.

All our student absences at present are SI and all in year 12! Interesting that they all have the app whereas year 11 (most of them) don't.

It's good that they're capturing more data up-front. Are they also capturing workplace information?

I can't remember as I wasn't very well when booking the test; I clicked key worker but I don't remember any other questions about occupation other than if you go to or work in a school. (It may be that my brain has forgotten as I was rather coughing my guts up, drowsy and panicking. Negative, just bad asthma and a different bug.) You had to name the actual school.

I remember previously it wasn't possible to even say you were booking for a child on the form.

I have to say that in the NE some areas are still rocketing in a worrying fashion as it's gone out to more residential areas. Anecdatally I know if a lot of schools affected too.

@NeurotrashWarrior when I booked a test around 4 July (requested by Zoe app) I wasn’t asked for occupation/employer, but when I booked one on 5 October (as a non-key worker) I was asked employer name, job role/type/industry question, if I had been in the office recently etc. So I think it must be fairly new

We got a test for my son towards the end of September. He was asked questions about occupation, but there was no answer option for him to say that he was a secondary school pupil. It's good that has been changed.

I did mention that on a feedback form they sent me (as well as suggesting they get rid of Dido Harding )

Ah that's good to hear lurker.

Shame they only followed one suggestion here!

I booked tests for DH and DS last week and didn't chose essential worker and pretty certain it asked for employer/had DS been to school.

I think you need to be careful in interpreting what the ONS is really saying about occupations. Looking carefully at their charts with the 95% confidence bars, they ought not to be claiming: "Teachers, keyworkers and other professionals all have the same risk" so much as "the numbers in our survey aren't large enough for us to be about to say with any degree of confidence whether there are differences between teachers, keyworkers and other professionals" The confidence intervals bars all overlap. That means the numbers in each group in their survey are too small to measure any differences that exist. All they can really say is that there aren't enormous differences. If teachers were, say, five times as likely to be positive as other professionals that would have shown up even with their small numbers. But an increased risk of maybe 40% or so wouldn't be statistically significant with the numbers they have.

Good to hear @lurker101, thanks

24957
413 deaths
Cases still seem to be plateauing