Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

More technical difficulties for case numbers for England today?

It is very telling that I read “wotsit”, was briefly confused, then realised exactly who you were talking about!

Latest data for Essex by age band. Cases do seem to be stabilising.

Is BCF down the back of the sofa ?

She is down there , personally rummaging around for the data!

@BunsyGirl
Or maybe it's showing half term effects

@BunsyGirl I don’t think so because if you look at the data, the cases started to stabilise prior to half term. The schools broke up on 23 October and by 22 October the cases had already started to stabilise apart from the 20 to 49 age group. The above chart goes up to 29 October. I have now attached the chart for the previous week which was up to 22 October (i.e. a day before the schools broke up).

Sorry I meant to tag @TheSunIsStillShining in the above, not myself!

private schools finished a week earlier.

although i have no idea how many of those does essex have.

I’m not convinced that is quite the story that the Essex data tells @BunsyGirl

Cases in Essex by week ending

04/10. 720
11/10. 1043
18/10. 1347
25/10. 1625 week before half term still rising
01/11. 1469 clearly falling but does coincide with half term.

Whilst a week on week fall the picture varies considerably across different parts of Essex

Basildon, Colchester, castle point, Tendring all show quite big falls. Chelmsford also down.

Fairly big increase in Epping forest, then at a lower trajectory Brentwood, Harlow, uttlesford, rochford, Braintree all show increases. Maldon no change in number.

So the picture a bit more mixed. Fingers crossed that those decreasing keep going and are joined by those areas not yet falling.

@TheSunIsStillShining My DCs go to a private school (in Essex) and they didn’t finish until 23 October.

Every single journalist asking questions tonight ahs been female. Good questions for a change, too.

There is another slide in the PHE thing that shows big fall off in uni age and a big rise in school age, catching up with the students in top teen age group.

[quote BunsyGirl]@TheSunIsStillShining My DCs go to a private school (in Essex) and they didn’t finish until 23 October.[/quote]
my bad. I assumed without thinking that all priv schools finish when ours does :)

Finally!!

"Protesting students have staged blockades at several high schools across France, burning trash cans to press for better coronavirus protection measures in an environment many fear could be fuelling the pandemic’s rapid spread."

Don't agree with the burning of the trash cans, but i understand that they want to try it out. It's kinda a must in this situation.

Positivity tests on page 33 are very interesting if someone would like to interpret:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/932944/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W45.pdf

@boys3 Uttlesford and Braintree cases have been pretty stable for a number of weeks. I have been following them closely since before we went into Tier 2. The above charts are by age, not area. You can clearly see that some of the age groups started to stabilise before half term: in particular the under 20 age group.

[quote Piggywaspushed]Positivity tests on page 33 are very interesting if someone would like to interpret:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/932944/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W45.pdf[/quote]
hmmmm looking at that in conjunction with p34 (showing number of tests per 100,000 falling quite a lot in week 44) suggests, possibly, far fewer young people being tested "just in case", or by people thinking it will let them get back to school/Uni; positivity rates are up quite markedly but number of tests down also quite markedly. That would suggest a shift towards testing of people more likely to actually be positive.

I suspect w44 will end up being a bit anomalous because of half term of course though.

Thanks , that's exactly how I interpret it, too.

For a whole host of pretty understandable reasons , parents definitely are test avoiding , where they can.

Article from the BBC about how the government has misrepresented data recently:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334

Do the spreadsheet updaters think Trump means them when he screams 'Stop the counting'

Not great news for Operation Moonshot as 50% of cases missed in pilot.

news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJy5Z_x4H23AiDlilDG46lUqFwgEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTClss0G?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

So they are still planning on using that test in Liverpool. Surely that is dangerous, telling people they are virus free and then they can go out and spread it. That can't be right can it?

A paywall came up so I'm not sure if I missed something.

[quote Choconuttolata]Not great news for Operation Moonshot as 50% of cases missed in pilot.

news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJy5Z_x4H23AiDlilDG46lUqFwgEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTClss0G?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen[/quote]
We are part of a school rapid testing regime, they tested 1000 staff and students and had 0,Zero positve results. That's despite the area having rising cases, the two nearest schools being fully closed due to an outbreak (many siblings go there) I'm not convinced it works.