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Covid

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 29/10/2020 14:07

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

OP posts:
Thread gallery
75
Quarantino · 02/11/2020 11:53

I'm in what was a southern Tier 1 area but it had risen surprisingly quickly in the last couple of weeks. I know the area (several UTLAs) were planning to go into a higher tier very soon anyway so a national lockdown is probably for the best.

For me what's most depressing is that I realise now I'd been holding on to some optimism that we could get back to summer levels, that start of Sept was manageable and everyone would be motivated to keep cases down but clearly I was naive and cases are already at quite a concerning level nationally. I'd thought we could 'live with COVID' a bit better than we did and seeing that we can't makes me wonder what our way out of this really is.

HoldingTight · 02/11/2020 12:07

Sorry - know this is a data thread but I need a small vent. Just had some firewood delivered and the guy (his company, educated to degree level, very pleasant) started on about how the government are overreacting, how the cases and deaths "aren't increasing" and it's all about money. I didn't want to get drawn in and tried to politely point out the inaccuracies and inconsistencies in his argument. They're everywhere. Sad

HoldingTight · 02/11/2020 12:25

It feels like Brexit all over again. False equivalence and 'balance' is misleading people to believe the lockdown is optional depending on which camp you're in. I'm sad and worried.

User24689 · 02/11/2020 12:34

Hi data people!

Can you help me? I was directed here from another thread. I have a DH who is quite sceptical about the covid situation. Just want to preempt this by saying DH is a nice kind intelligent person with a degree in stats and has never particularly been a conspiracy theorist before but I feel he has gone way down some rabbit hole and I can't meaningfully debate any of this with him as he genuinely is so stressed about it all and has such a better understanding of the numbers HE has found than I do. I wonder if you lot can help with the following questions

  1. Do you know anything about the PCR test cycles. Apparently we are doing 30-40 cycles on our tests which is different to other countries like Spain who reduced cycles as the tests are not as specific at that number of cycles. This means we could be picking up virus fragments after 35 cycles or so that are left over from earlier in the year (meaning people are no longer contagious). Can't find anything to help me debunk this as it is all so scientific and I don't understand what I'm reading.
  2. Respiratory virus admissions in hospital are usual for this time of year. This one seems to be true. So DH is worried that when this follows the usual pattern in a normal year the hospital admissions will rocket regardless of lockdown which will make it look like the lockdown isn't working and so we will end up with it being extended. Covid positives will increase as absolutely every hospital admission gets a covid test so as we test more and more people who are sick with other things we will find a lot of them also have covid as there is a lot of it about (Inc fragments of it left over from earlier in the year)
  3. 350,000 fewer cancer diagnoses. Can't find a source for this. A lot of these people will die. A lot of them will die of covid rather than cancer because they will happen to have covid show up on their test within 28 days of passing away.

Basically, he doesn't think the government are setting out to fool people or doing anything nefarious. He thinks flaws in the system mean the more we test the more we will find and they will find themselves in a situation where there will be no way out of lockdown without them quietly ramping testing back down again into he background, making it look like their lockdown has worked. He is therefore concerned that these lockdowns will become the accepted way of dealing with any virus of this kind in future, whether they work or not. .

How much bollocks is he talking? Does anyone have anything that will reassure me or that I can pass on to reassure him that the Gov are doing the right thing.

Piggywaspushed · 02/11/2020 13:08

holding my washing machine man referred to the 'Chinese Virus'. I just laughed and said 'hmmm'.

NeurotrashWarrior · 02/11/2020 13:09
  1. I appreciate this isn't hard evidence but it's the argument I use:

I believe that's why you're only supposed to get tested with symptoms.

A nurse friend who's father was a research dr at Oxford and managed setting up labs etc, including coordinating the nightingales, said told me pcr tests have been around for years and are the best current guide. I believe it's fairly accepted that you get false positives and negatives in medicine; the key is treating. It's accurate enough to be the best guide we have.

So with infectious diseases such as scarlet fever you give the ABs to be safe then send of the test. So you isolate to be safe and potentially stop spread.

That's also why they're focussing so much on loss of smell as a key symptom.

It's splitting hairs to go down the false positive negative route and a bit irrelevant. It's also why hospitalisations are key to this. You look at the bigger picture.

He is therefore concerned that these lockdowns will become the accepted way of dealing with any virus of this kind in future, whether they work or not.

No govt in their right mind would do a lockdown unless it were really necessary. The economy is fucked. I don't think the tories will recover either.

Piggywaspushed · 02/11/2020 13:10

I am wondering whether a flaw in the Tier system was it was only really done by case numbers.

No people in the SW and the East are wondering why they should be involved and there is much resistance. Should the messaging have been clearer about bed capacity?

PrayingandHoping · 02/11/2020 13:13

I think bed capacity should be updated more often (I've said it before). The last lot of numbers out there is a month old now. New numbers out any day now

User24689 · 02/11/2020 13:18

Thanks, I didn't know this about bed capacity. Because it is currently about average for this time of year (though I don't really buy into that as a reason against lockdown as i know cases are rising.)

Thanks for replies so far.

ancientgran · 02/11/2020 13:19

I'm in South West, I think a national lockdown is the way to go, all in it together but we should have done it two weeks ago and had two weeks lockdown with schools closed. Now we have a 4 week lockdown and with schools open who knows how effective it will be.

NeurotrashWarrior · 02/11/2020 13:19

Respiratory virus admissions in hospital are usual for this time of year.

Many areas have had lots of restrictions. So if they're normal for this time of year, what on Earth would they be like if we weren't all mingling?

Some areas have not been allowed to mix with other households at all since the summer. I haven't seen many colleagues in my school since the first training day, at a distance. Infections are reduced - has he looked at data for other infections compared to this time of year? Eg rhinovirus? Flu?

Piggywaspushed · 02/11/2020 13:27

Yes praying and lots of people don't realise our bed capacity is far lower per person than most of Europe who we keep comparing ourselves to in terms of overall measures. In fact we do so much worse on so many core measures : bed capacity, wait time, average school class sizes, funding of emergency measures, funding full stop etc etc...

PrayingandHoping · 02/11/2020 13:29

@upthewolves there is data about beds taken and how many of those are taken by covid patients. It's done by hospital trust. As I said, give it a few more days and we should see what we assume those in charge were seeing at the weekend...

User24689 · 02/11/2020 13:31

I would think they would all be grouped as 'respiratory'. We tried to look at 'all' admissions but there were too many people downloading the file!!

I see what you are saying about less mingling should mean lower spread than normal. I'm just not convinced when schools have been open with no social distancing. Even in general population there has been little distancing going on for quite a long time so I'd be surprised if the usual infections aren't going round like they always do. I'm not sure though.

PrayingandHoping · 02/11/2020 13:47

@upthewolves

It specifically gives Covid figures

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

User24689 · 02/11/2020 13:58

That might have been the link we couldn't open! Thanks. I can't follow the link in your post though as it isn't clicky. Could you post it again please?

PrayingandHoping · 02/11/2020 14:06

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Works when I click on it

Otherwise type into good covid nhs hospital activity and it will take u there

I can never open and view it on a phone. U need to be on a laptop

Baaaahhhhh · 02/11/2020 14:12

Anecdote alert Half of patients in a certain hospital have caught it IN hospital. Isolated before coming in, negative on admission, positive before discharge. How are these patients included in the statistics?

Baaaahhhhh · 02/11/2020 14:13

Sorry, to be clear, half of those with Covid within the hospital, not half of all patients!

User24689 · 02/11/2020 14:24

Thank you.

Interesting Bahhhh. Makes it difficult doesn't it because that would mean some of the 'admissions' you would expect on average are perhaps turning into covid admissions. Meaning that those covid cases would not be an 'extra' burden on the system but just a different category within the admissions figures. I wonder if there is data on how often that is happening.

My dad had a heart attack last week. He was admitted and found to be covid positive which was very scary as he is 71 and asthmatic. He never had any covid symptoms though. I wonder if he is counted as a covid admission? He didn't catch it in hospital, he was tested in a&E on arrival.

(He's fine now btw! Thankfully!)

NeurotrashWarrior · 02/11/2020 14:30

Up flu report breaks infections down further. Each year is different as there are new viruses all the time, such as this one.

They identified early on that it's very different and dangerous.

It's also not technically just a respiratory virus. The issues are mass organ failure and more.

Plus it's clear to see that long Covid research is still in its infancy.

pinkbalconyrailing · 02/11/2020 14:31

@Baaaahhhhh

Anecdote alert Half of patients in a certain hospital have caught it IN hospital. Isolated before coming in, negative on admission, positive before discharge. How are these patients included in the statistics?
doesn't surprise me tbh. hospitals are a bad mix of vulnerable people, bodily excretions of all sorts, and ample opportunity for cross infection.
Baaaahhhhh · 02/11/2020 14:31

upthewolves Glad he is OK. Like DM's husband in their care home. Only one to come back with a positive result when they were all tested recently. He had been in hospital, but 4 weeks ago. He hasn't been anywhere else. Is it a false positive? Is it some leftover contagion? Has he caught it from someone in the home, but they all tested negative. It's a mystery. He has no symptoms either, completely OK, and he is 85 with heart disease, dementia, and cancer.

User24689 · 02/11/2020 14:34

@neurotrashwarrior sorry I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying it was the same severity as other respiratory viruses. I was just saying that I was looking at previous years hospital capacity for respiratory viruses and thought that covid would be classed as a respiratory virus so the admissions for covid plus other respiratory viruses would be the comparable number. Not sure I'm explaining myself clearly even now!

NeurotrashWarrior · 02/11/2020 15:10

I think what I mean is that flu stats break down some of the different strains including Covid this year, and you can compare to previous years.

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