Do people realise Coronavirus won't be eliminated

[Shockhorrorno]

And they'll always be lots of Coronavirus deaths every year? I get the feeling people think it's going to magically disappear when a vaccine appears, but at best we'll still have Coronavirus deaths similar to flu and pneumonia. And people will still catch it and be left with long covid. Is it time for a reality check on what we're actually going to be able to achieve?

if we had taken swifter action earlier, and had a functioning test & trace system.

It is worth noting that no European country (really) is at the races with Test & Trace. We need some consultancy input from the Asian countries that know how to do this. Urgently.

Out-of-home quarantine, if you really want to keep it suppressed. The problem is that we have now got to so many cases that we don't really have much of a hope of getting it to work.

Best strategy right now, probably, is to just do everything possible to blast down viral loads (masks, ventilation, shifting things outdoors) and pray for a vaccine ASAP.

The vaccine plus better treatments will probably reduce the mortality and morbility to something more like flu. Meaning that we will have this to deal with every year as well as actual flu, and annual vaccines for the foreseeable. Great. Thanks, China. On the other hand, perhaps the virus itself will evolve to become less deadly, as SARS did. The fatality rate already seems to be very low compared with the spring.

Re: Japan:

Japan's handling of the pandemic has not always been great, but we do seem to have been helped out by universal mask wearing from the start, low levels of obesity and vitamin D deficiency, and the "Three Cs."

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/27/national/japanese-cluster-study-3cs-warning-coronavirus/ "closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded and close-contact settings"

I remember many people including many foreign residents here taking the piss out of the 3 Cs advice at first--it seemed a bit wishy washy compared with the measures being taken in some other countries. However, it seems Japan was roughly correct about the 3 Cs. Especially the ventilation bit.

There is also some speculation that some similar cold-type coronaviruses may have been doing the rounds in Japan during the winter, giving people some immunity.

I do understand why the likes have Japan, China etc are fairing better than Europe but when it comes to China I can’t help but wonder how they have managed this pandemic. Scientists are saying it probably started back in September in China they didn’t even admit and confirm there was a problem until the end of December. They have had 86,000 cases and 4634 deaths, for such a large country with a massive population, it just doesn’t add up-to me.

They have had 86,000 cases and 4634 deaths, for such a large country with a massive population, it just doesn’t add up-to me

I think the giveaway was when they decided to build a hospital in a week when they had only 3 deaths.

It does make me wonder about the true figures

@ItWasTheBestOfTimes

I wasn’t using an anecdote to draw a conclusion, I was using logic, with the anecdote as an example.

It is illogical to suggest that removing all restrictions to the point that the virus spreads uncontrollably will not affect nhs staff levels. It is illogical to suggest that Healthcare operating at near capacity without high staff absence will be able to offer all the services it usually does with high staff absence and an ever increasing number of patients.

Who has mentioned removing all restrictions? I certainly haven't.

I think some people do not realise this. I was a bit surprised when I saw a response to another covid thread a few weeks back and the first two responses made a reference to eradicating the virus in a way that suggested it would happen very soon. It is so unlikely it will be eradicated anytime soon...

Coming soon to hospitals in the north - and given the massive increase in the last couple of days in bed use in the Midlands to them shortly afterwards www.demorgen.be/nieuws/patient-stierf-omdat-we-geen-machine-meer-hadden~b3df7f24/?utm_source=link&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=shared%20content&utm_content=free&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2F

Deaths because there is no equipment to treat you and then even fewer staff to treat you as health care staff leave rather than watch it.

The government will try to conceal it, the NHS wont want to admit it is happening but it will unless people stop doing what they are doing now.

New treatments are constantly being trialled - we would not be in this position next winter if we could get through this winter.

And for those claiming that precautions do "fuck all" this is an American study showing infections 50% lower where masks are worn www2.ljworld.com/news/ku/2020/oct/23/covid-19-spreading-half-as-quickly-in-counties-with-mask-mandates-ku-research-shows/

Drugs like this one will provide a way out - investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates

with rapid testing to help.

We need some consultancy input from the Asian countries that know how to do this. Urgently.

Asian is aided by a different culture which doesnt translate to our society - their systems wouldnt work here because of ideas of the individual first over society first.

This can not be changed.

their systems wouldnt work here because of ideas of the individual first over society first

I’m talking about things like backwards rather than forewords contact tracing.

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

This is worth a read

Sorry if this is a stupid question but will it become seasonal like flu and chicken pox because it seems relentless right now!

@TheKeatingFive

their systems wouldnt work here because of ideas of the individual first over society first

I’m talking about things like backwards rather than forewords contact tracing.

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

This is worth a read

Backwards tracing is being used here to identify where exactly outbreaks are occurring in order to help decision making over restrictions.

However backwards tracing wouldnt work in the uk at present because we have too many cases and even backwards tracing systems would be overwhelmed and backwards tracing still relies on high compliance rates which are driven by economics and culture. Backwards tracing also relies on very fast testing turn around and very fast tracing which we are still yet to be anywhere near being able to achieve.

Our basis problem is once youve fucked it, you can't go back to tracing being effective until cases drop substantially.

Red tooth brush - is Australian and nz culture v different from U.K.? They seem to have taken drastic measures to halt infection. Look at Melbourne. Or Isle of Man.

I agree that it’s hard to do much with the tracing/testing when cases are so high. However, it is a bit silly to do same restriction for everywhere in the country because there are different rates. I think it could work if you divided the country into regions and required 14 day quarantine to go into a low infection area - to enable more normal life and economic activity in the places that have few infections.

@TheKeatingFive

their systems wouldnt work here because of ideas of the individual first over society first

I’m talking about things like backwards rather than forewords contact tracing.

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

This is worth a read

Again, different culture. They're probably more honest over there. Here in the UK, people would lie and claim they've never been out, always wear masks, havn't been in crowded pubs, etc. Both my sister and next door neighbour lie constantly about how they're complying with all the rules.

@Namenic

Red tooth brush - is Australian and nz culture v different from U.K.? They seem to have taken drastic measures to halt infection. Look at Melbourne. Or Isle of Man.

IOM is a tiny Island with low population and only a couple of ships per day bringing people/supplies. Very easy to control who's coming and going. You really can't compare that to the UK!

I think it's going to take a couple of years for people to get the message mostly people are still hoping that they can go back to things I enjoyed, wishful thinking and refusal to accept harsh reality are parts of Human nature

Can someone help me understand the figures that are being put out.
I am probably being really thick in not understanding this

We are getting reports as an example that 240 people have died who tested positive within the last 28 days.

Then the next day the figure goes up to 252

Isn’t that just double counting as only 12 + the number of people who died on the previous days 28th day (IYSWIM) and the same number of people for the previous 27 days are being counted again.

Is it designed to look scary or am I missing something.

@TheKeatingFive

their systems wouldnt work here because of ideas of the individual first over society first

I’m talking about things like backwards rather than forewords contact tracing.

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

This is worth a read

Considering plenty of people have readily admitted/boasted about not answering their phones when they suspect it's the test and trace people phoning them, I really don't think we'd have anywhere near the compliance level needed to do backwards tracing.

@Oliversmumsarmy

Can someone help me understand the figures that are being put out. I am probably being really thick in not understanding this

We are getting reports as an example that 240 people have died who tested positive within the last 28 days.

Then the next day the figure goes up to 252

Isn’t that just double counting as only 12 + the number of people who died on the previous days 28th day (IYSWIM) and the same number of people for the previous 27 days are being counted again.

Is it designed to look scary or am I missing something.

You're reading it wrong. It's not people dying in the last 28 days. It's people dying in the last day. The 28 day refers to when they tested positive, not when they died. So in your example, it's 240 day 1 then 252 day 2, making a total of 492 over 2 days.

Yes, I think (hope) most people realise it will become an endemic disease much like the flu. There will still be deaths of course but far fewer when we have a vaccine and better treatments and we (NHS) will be much better prepared to cope with it.

Considering plenty of people have readily admitted/boasted about not answering their phones when they suspect it's the test and trace people phoning them, I really don't think we'd have anywhere near the compliance level needed to do backwards tracing

I think people underestimate the number of people who don’t have regular employment and are s/e in the gig economy. Hence why whole sections of the Arts have been decimated and whilst Rishi Sunak’s handouts were generous there were a lot of people who fell between the gaps

People just can’t afford to be told that just because they were in an area at the same time as someone else they have to give up work for 2 weeks. Which means they miss 2 weeks pay.

No one is going to adhere to T&T if it means their home is going to be put at risk

@HesterShaw1

How long and how many times will we have to lock down to "prevent the health system collapsing"?

How about, you know, using the fuck ton of money we are flinging at the effects of lockdown, we use some of to actually invest in the health service so it doesn't "collapse". Every bloody autumn we are told that certain hospitals are close to "collapse"? Why is this ok with people?

Yes someone will loftily tell me that it takes years to invest in the NHS so that is no good now. So how about we bloody well start now, so that we don't have keep locking down in the future? Oh yes, because there won't be any money, because of all these ridiculous and unsustainable lockdowns.

If there is anything we have learned in the last 8 months, it's that you can't slash health spending to the bone and expect it to actually be a health "service". At the moment it is nothing but a covid service. Why do you think Germany's numbers are so much better than ours? Possibly because they have better health provision and they were able to treat people earlier back in the spring, rather than telling them they had to stay away from the health "service" in order to "protect" it?

Great post.