Do people realise Coronavirus won't be eliminated

[Shockhorrorno]

And they'll always be lots of Coronavirus deaths every year? I get the feeling people think it's going to magically disappear when a vaccine appears, but at best we'll still have Coronavirus deaths similar to flu and pneumonia. And people will still catch it and be left with long covid. Is it time for a reality check on what we're actually going to be able to achieve?

@MaxNormal

Japan has barely locked down though. Yet still had much lower deaths.

1) Culture difference. Japan has a collectivity culture which promotes the idea of the greater good over individual need. This is typical of east asia. This means compliance with restrictions is taken far more seriously. The west promotes individual need in society far more making it harder to enforce restrictions. 2) Japan is using a different type of tracing system. They arent tracing every contact of every case. They are using back tracing. This relies on a very fast tracing system but it has less contacts to trace. The principle is based on the fact most people dont pass on the virus - most cases are spread by a handful of people instead. So they find out where someone caught it and then trace everyone who was in contact with the super spreader. This only works with high compliance rates and the virus remaining under control with relatively few cases. 3) Japanese culture has its own features which make spread of the virus less likely. Theres more living alone and its a less social culture to begin with than say spain or italy or even the uk. Theres few big families. Its not huggy or known for kissing anyone outside your own home for example. 4) People are used to masks and wore them very early on without the need for it to be sanctioned. 5) Japan has far lower rates of obesity and diabetes than europe. The population as a whole has a lower risk profile than many others despite the age of the population.

Theres lots of reasons why Japan has been better placed to handle the crisis in a way which aren't suitable to be transferred to everywhere else because of how the success relies so heavily on deeply ingrained culture.

The only thing thats potentially useful is back tracing which i believe the uk is now looking at to some degree to understand where the virus is spreading, but this is more about decision making about what the best restrictions to introduce are and what precautions can be taken, rather than a control method in its own right. I think theres some debate over whether back tracing would work here with greater levels of economic inequality, poor compliance and slower turn around - and with numbers of cases so high at present it would overwhelm the system anyway.

Unfortunately we need to look closer to home, to countries more like our own culture for clues as to the best measures that would work for us.

Or you could change culture and way of life. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore have made adjustments. They had strict restrictions and are opening up slowly. It remains to be seen whether they get further big outbreaks, but they have higher population density than Europe.

Pretty sure it was ingrained before not to wash hands or not to sterilize surgical implements. But agreed that it does require society to want to do this.

Cw

That doesn’t back up the PP’s comment. Several vaccines already in use require more than one dose. My understanding is that the vaccines soon to become available will be the same. Waning antibodies to natural infection does not mean that vaccination will not be effective, it just means that boosters and/or annual vaccination will be needed. The PP is the one talking bollocks.

@Qasd

I do think there is confusion- the criteria for vaccination really brought it home to me.

So a vaccine in the U.K. will not be given initially this under 50 who do not have underlying health conditions or work in the health sector.

So

• my 9 year old should not be educated according to many on mumsnet this is “because health is more important than education”
• but it’s ok because there will be a vaccine soon
• but when there is he will not get it, nor will his classmates, parents or siblings or even his current teachers unless they have underlying health conditions (they are under 50 but obviously don’t know otherwise)
• so erm then health is no longer important as he can both get covid (including this long covid of course) and pass it on to pretty much to everyone he could have passed it on to if he got it in March since no one he has regular contact with will be vaccinated
• but yes for now obviously he shouldn’t be educated because erm”health is more important than education”

Better just hold out and wait for the magic vaccine that will not actually change anything other than stop people arguing for for the end of state education...or will it given how little in practice will change?

Medical/scientific experts have said that you don't need everyone to be vaccinated, maybe around half the population is enough. It's like herd immunity - that doesn't need everyone to have been infected either. It's all about reducing the number of people out and about infecting others. As more people are vaccinated, they won't be a risk to other people, so the average Joe Public will come into contact with fewer infected people in their normal day to day lives. When a lot fewer people are contagious, the basic precautions like hand washing, social distancing as far as possible, etc become a lot more effective.

@MadameBlobby this made me lol ... me too .. com

My aunt is a nurse in a hospital in a tier 3 area, lots of staff including her tested positive last week, she is really quite poorly and hasn’t been able to get out of bed for 10 days. One of the other staff members she worked with who is now ill was previously on the shielding list but had to return to work when shielding ended. The department she works in (cardiac) was already short staffed and now they have had to reduce patient numbers even more as lots of staff are off sick. So less people are getting stents at the moment. I really struggle to see the point of view of those who think it is the restrictions that are solely causing delays in non-Covid treatment. If the virus is allowed to spread without restrictions the health system will be overwhelmed within weeks imo as lots of staff will be off sick, some of whom then won’t return to work because of severe illness or death.

ItWasTheBestOfTimes ah well, if your aunt is a nurse and her and some of her colleagues have tested positive we should definitely lock all the country down. Because that would be a really scientific approach

I read ItWasTheBestofTimes post and focused on this:-

"The department she works in (cardiac) was already short staffed and now they have had to reduce patient numbers even more as lots of staff are off sick."

We started the pandemic with half as many beds as 30 years ago, 6,500 GP positions vacant and 43, 000 nursing positions vacant. Most of the vacancies will be filled with temporary staff (which costs the NHS more). The beds are more of an issue. But still staff illnesses (of any nature) will create problems and backlogs. There isn't sufficient flex in our systems - Germany I understand has this built in, which is why they can take in patients from neighbouring countries without putting their own citizens at a disadvantage.

To me this is the biggest issue facing us and the reason why we are where we are.

Toxteth - what she’s saying is that if we don’t take more measures, more people with non corona illnesses will be affected.

Lockdown can be effective - Melbourne dealt with a 2nd wave by doing this.

We could choose to do nothing and just let the situation potentially get worse.
On the continent countries are deciding to put in more restrictions because of severe pressure on the health system.

I should watch Dr John Campbell’s latest youtube video. People who had SARS1 still have the memory T cells 17 years later and are immune to Covid (SARS2). Covid is very similar to SARS1 so no reason to think that the vaccine won’t pretty much get rid of it.

So you are seriously suggesting that if cases in the community increase this isn’t going to affect the number of staff in hospitals getting ill? How can a hospital department continue to function if lots of staff are off at the same time. Hospitals already work at near capacity, sometimes over capacity, in normal times and the NHS as a whole is very short staffed. I am not saying a national lockdown is right, I just think the people who believe that if all restrictions were lifted then the NHS could continue to offer the same patient services as they did pre pandemic are deluded.

My point is, rising community spread is the sole reason less patients are getting heart stents In that local hospital at the minute, it had nothing to do with prioritising COVID patients.

@ItWasTheBestOfTimes

So you are seriously suggesting that if cases in the community increase this isn’t going to affect the number of staff in hospitals getting ill? How can a hospital department continue to function if lots of staff are off at the same time. Hospitals already work at near capacity, sometimes over capacity, in normal times and the NHS as a whole is very short staffed. I am not saying a national lockdown is right, I just think the people who believe that if all restrictions were lifted then the NHS could continue to offer the same patient services as they did pre pandemic are deluded.

You’re wasting your time. Toxteth either deliberately misconstrues or is posting in bad faith. I don’t believe anyone can be as hard of understanding as s/he portrays.

@ItWasTheBestOfTimes

My point is, rising community spread is the sole reason less patients are getting heart stents In that local hospital at the minute, it had nothing to do with prioritising COVID patients.

I'm absolutely fed up of reading stuff like this. Do you realise how many people missed appointments during Lockdown because of the ludicrous obsession with Covid? There is an absolute avalanche of deaths coming down the road from non-covid related illnesses because they have been left to fester since March.

@Notonthestairs

I read ItWasTheBestofTimes post and focused on this:-

"The department she works in (cardiac) was already short staffed and now they have had to reduce patient numbers even more as lots of staff are off sick."

We started the pandemic with half as many beds as 30 years ago, 6,500 GP positions vacant and 43, 000 nursing positions vacant. Most of the vacancies will be filled with temporary staff (which costs the NHS more). The beds are more of an issue. But still staff illnesses (of any nature) will create problems and backlogs. There isn't sufficient flex in our systems - Germany I understand has this built in, which is why they can take in patients from neighbouring countries without putting their own citizens at a disadvantage.

To me this is the biggest issue facing us and the reason why we are where we are.

THIS! So much this!

We need to get over the Tory press peddled fallacy that public spending is bad and "spaffing money" as our dear PM put it.

If we want to have an NHS - and it seems as though people generally do - we need to bloody well pay for it with increased taxation.

If we don't, then we need to look at a European style insurance system. It really is not rocket science. Having hospitals that annually buckle under the weight of normal winter viruses is absolutely insane. And that's in non pandemic years, obviously.

It seems curious that the NHS was set up by a Socialist government after the upheaval and trauma of World War II, and it was vehemently opposed by the Tories at every stage. And now it is being used by that very Tory party as a form of emotional blackmail. "Protect the NHS" - what by not using it, ever? FFS! We are not protecting the NHS with lockdowns. We are protecting the arse of a government who are wrecking it, and who were ideologically opposed to it from its inception.

Bloody hell, we should be marching in the streets, not hiding in our houses!

Oh the irony of suggesting I am hard of understanding WiseUpJanetWeiss from somebody who essentially posts the same old cut and paste guff ad infinitum on covid. I've yet to read a remotely original thought from you yet on these issues. I take it you do have some?

@ItWasTheBestOfTimes

So you are seriously suggesting that if cases in the community increase this isn’t going to affect the number of staff in hospitals getting ill? How can a hospital department continue to function if lots of staff are off at the same time. Hospitals already work at near capacity, sometimes over capacity, in normal times and the NHS as a whole is very short staffed. I am not saying a national lockdown is right, I just think the people who believe that if all restrictions were lifted then the NHS could continue to offer the same patient services as they did pre pandemic are deluded.

No, and you know I am not (or you ought to). I am suggesting we should stop trying to draw broad conclusions from anecdotal evidence. FFS, how difficult can it be to understand that?

@toxtethOgradyUSA

Oh the irony of suggesting I am hard of understanding WiseUpJanetWeiss from somebody who essentially posts the same old cut and paste guff ad infinitum on covid. I've yet to read a remotely original thought from you yet on these issues. I take it you do have some?

You have me confused with someone else. I do not post cut and paste guff. I very rarely post links. My opinions are my own, shaped by actual knowledge about how the NHS works.

Lockdowns are very harmful. Lockdowns should not have been necessary if we had a functioning government and if the NHS has not been pared to the bone over the past 10 years. Yet here we are.

@toxtethOgradyUSA - do you work in the health sector?

People who had SARS1 still have the memory T cells 17 years later and are immune to Covid (SARS2).

That's really interesting, I wonder if that's the explanation for lower rates in the Far East then?

I wasn’t using an anecdote to draw a conclusion, I was using logic, with the anecdote as an example.

It is illogical to suggest that removing all restrictions to the point that the virus spreads uncontrollably will not affect nhs staff levels. It is illogical to suggest that Healthcare operating at near capacity without high staff absence will be able to offer all the services it usually does with high staff absence and an ever increasing number of patients.

Lockdowns should not have been necessary if we had a functioning government and if the NHS has not been pared to the bone over the past 10 years.

So why are lockdowns happening all over Europe, even in countries that have spent more on healthcare than the UK?

Do you realise how many people missed appointments during Lockdown because of the ludicrous obsession with Covid? There is an absolute avalanche of deaths coming down the road from non-covid related illnesses because they have been left to fester since March.

It’s posts like this that make me believe you’re being deliberately obtuse.

The NHS was and is once again dealing with very sick Covid patients. Some of the staff were very sick Covid patients themselves. The NHS essentially focused on dealing with the critically ill only because that’s all there was the capacity to do. Not looking after them would have meant leaving people to die in the emergency department. In my hospital staff were drafted in from other clinical and admin areas to backfill, to expand the ICU and HDU capacity. Currently there is a drive to get people to commit to more overtime shifts as well. We’re encouraged to defer annual leave until the next financial year.

This is not information from tabloids - this is information from our daily briefings.

None of this means that the lack of care for other sick patients is not also a disaster. It is. And it’s terrifying. But the cause of this is not lockdowns, it’s the sheer number of sick patients needing acute care.

Only 8000ish people had SARS1, I think.

@Badbadbunny

Lockdowns should not have been necessary if we had a functioning government and if the NHS has not been pared to the bone over the past 10 years.

So why are lockdowns happening all over Europe, even in countries that have spent more on healthcare than the UK?

OK that was a bit hyperbolic. Lockdowns are necessary clearly, but huge swathes of the country would not have been in fairly stringent lockdown all summer if we had taken swifter action earlier, and had a functioning test & trace system.