Do people realise Coronavirus won't be eliminated

[Shockhorrorno]

And they'll always be lots of Coronavirus deaths every year? I get the feeling people think it's going to magically disappear when a vaccine appears, but at best we'll still have Coronavirus deaths similar to flu and pneumonia. And people will still catch it and be left with long covid. Is it time for a reality check on what we're actually going to be able to achieve?

Plus perhaps if we can see Europe is failing we could look at countries doing better

What about Sweden. Take precautions but business as usual and falling figures

In terms of what works and what doesn't, all other countries have something to offer, if any of the tossers in government chose to learn.

Of course there is no off the shelf package, but those countries that have had better success - which lets face it is almost everywhere bar USA - will surely have useful insights.

What we know works is: masks, quarantine/border measures, distancing, testing. The UK has been really rather weak at all of them.

But the UK was good at hand washing. So well done to us for that.

Blah blah culture, blah blah population density, blah blah complex/connected economy, blah blah free-thinking citizens - all these are just excuses for the truth which is we don't listen to best practice (especially from other countries) and have been very very slow to act at each step of this mess.

Of course there is no off the shelf package, but those countries that have had better success - which lets face it is almost everywhere bar USA - will surely have useful insights.

Could you be specific?

Which comparable countries have had markedly 'better success' than Britain and which measures do you think led to that 'success'? From what I can see, all of Western Europe is in a bad way, incl those countries everyone was praising only a few months ago. I'm not seeing too many success stories at the moment.

I’m not sure what things we could copy from Sweden to stop hospital being overwhelmed currently. Unless you are saying we shouldn’t stop them being overwhelmed and just accept it as a consequence of the virus and continue with the current rules/relax them

Australian city Melbourne controlling its 2nd wave must be because of low population density, being on the other side of the world, different culture... do we not think we can compare it to Manchester or any of the U.K. non London cities? Or learn anything?

@Namenic

Australian city Melbourne controlling its 2nd wave must be because of low population density, being on the other side of the world, different culture... do we not think we can compare it to Manchester or any of the U.K. non London cities? Or learn anything?

Melbourne hasn't done anything novel. It imposed an extremely strict lockdown which has lowered infection rates dramatically. Nothing that hadn't been done in Wuhan months previously. Everyone knows that lockdowns will suppress the virus, but the effect is temporary. Let's see how Melbourne gets on when measures are relaxed, although the fact that it's now summer in Australia also has to be taken into account.

Sweden has lower rates of economic deprivation and poor underlying health. It also has more hospital beds per head of population.

At this stage, looking around at what other countries are doing to ideas of how to manage the crisis rather misses the pressing issue.

Lack of beds.

We are now so deep into this and not managing the situation up to this point, that it doesn't matter what the overall strategy has been or is in another country.

We've past the point at which we can make decisions like that.

We are now locked into a situation where its all about bed management and not a lot else. And that will require very harsh restrictions whether we can afford them, whether we want them or whether many choose to ignore them.

The basis point is its now too late to be looking at anything but emergency last resort measures.

Its been the case for some considerable time that we were always one of the most vulnerable countries in this crisis because of our demographics, economics and lack of investment in the NHS.

Beds. Its all about beds.

If the penny hasn't dropped yet about this, unfortunately I think it will for far too many people in the coming weeks.

Beds.

I’m pretty sure they have the beds in the nightingales. They don’t have staff though.

Icedpurple - So in places where we are running out of hospital beds, we could just carry on as normal, which is likely to mean that we see nhs overrun in those areas (which is the stage places like Belgium are like on the continent). Or we could do what Melbourne did - don’t think it is culture that is stopping us.

I believe that Australia did require quarantine between states - which would help reducing infections in low prevalence areas.

Beds = staffed beds.

Otherwise its just irrelevant none functioning furniture.

Or we could do what Melbourne did - don’t think it is culture that is stopping us.

But like I said, Melbourne didn't do anything original or special. It went under very strict lockdown. France and Spain - much more comparable to the UK seeing as they are nearby countries, not individual cities - did much the same and many MNers were going on about how much 'better' they had handled it. Now, they have experienced serious resurgences and are going into lockdown again.

Imposing lockdown is the easy bit but it's no more than a temporary measure. I thought that was clear at this point.

To maintain it aus and nz have good border control. Good enforcement of rules - actually checking people are following quarantine. They also maintained the lockdown until cases are v low rather than opening up v quickly.

It is possible to have good border control in U.K. ironic that the Tories are ok with it for immigration but don’t want to do it for health. If they have internal borders, requiring quarantine to cross, then I think it would help. I think aus required quarantine between states at one point.

" if only people would do as they were told / wear masks/ stop mixing then this will go away"

Well that is actually true. Get R down below 1 and eventually the virus dies out. It would take a long time but that doesnt mean it wouldnt happen. You would then need to quarantine anyone coming into the country, as New Zealand did, but for an island nation its feasible, there just isnt the will to do it.

This is the message we should learn from the Nordic countries - look after your population www.france24.com/en/20200903-nordics-welfare-model-limits-corona-economic-damage

It’s true about the beds and staff. I think I was just trying to say that staff are an important part of the equation. even if we maintain same number of beds but too many staff get ill, we are in a tricky situation

Germany’s DIVI intensive care and emergency medicine association is warning of a “dramatic shortage of nurses” as infections surged 11,409 in 24 hours – there’s no shortage of beds, just a lack of 3,500-plus specialists

It's always about staff - Europe has a shortfall of medical staff. You can have all the beds in the world, but if you don't have the staff to run them, it's irrelevant.

On the first page of this thread, a pp said the government had all summer to prepare the NHS - how? DH does a lot of work with NHS hospitals, they HAVE been working all summer on planning, but at the end of the day, you can't magic up staff, that will always be your limiting factor.

There are some people out there who seem to think we will be ok by Christmas. I do not share their optimism.
I think we are realistically looking at around April next year for things to settle and be back to some kind of 'normal '

@MiaMarshmallows

There are some people out there who seem to think we will be ok by Christmas. I do not share their optimism. I think we are realistically looking at around April next year for things to settle and be back to some kind of 'normal '

It won't be ok for Christmas.

Every projection says we won't be ok for Christmas.

Anyone still thinking we will be is dellusional.

We will be sold that though in the press conference this evening. Told we can have a Christmas if we go along with these plans and Boris will make out that by then the virus will be practically over.

@MiaMarshmallows

There are some people out there who seem to think we will be ok by Christmas. I do not share their optimism. I think we are realistically looking at around April next year for things to settle and be back to some kind of 'normal '

Yep

@Oliversmumsarmy

Plus perhaps if we can see Europe is failing we could look at countries doing better

What about Sweden. Take precautions but business as usual and falling figures

Are you sure about this?

Yes. Of course

Sweden 0 deaths today.

Infection isn’t an automatic death sentence.