How is this going to pan out without a firebreak?

[Starlight101]

I’ve just listening to a sage scientist on the radio. He spoke a lot of sense. He basically said that even if every part of the country went into Tier 3 now then that wouldn’t bring the R rate below one. It might get it to one but it’s more likely to remain above one. So in 2-3 weeks we can expect 300-400 deaths a day due to the current amount of infection in the population. If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

A circuit breaker would likely half the infection levels thus halving all those numbers above. He agreed it’s also easier for track and trace to do their thing with smaller numbers involved.

How on Earth is this going to pan out without a circuit breaker. The numbers are shocking

Link to radio piece

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000nl83?fbclid=IwAR1irEwt9Ez_n389HdHB9urKsRQMMfYVUP26eHdtopTxjgOZuBeg0d5TkaI

If the R rate was one then the number of infections would neither grow nor reduce which would mean the death rate would stabilise. But the R rate would reduce as the number of susceptible hosts reduce (even short lived immunity would do this).

All a "firebreak" will actually do is delay this, and potentially cause even more deaths and illness due to the actual measures taken.

The only way I can see it being fully beneficial is if a vaccine were to be fully ready for roll out within 4 weeks of the firebreak starting

Slowly but surely more and more areas are going to fall into Tier 3 restrictions. It's going to have little or no impact on numbers and then they'll impose the "fire break" they should have imposed in September. Which will also have hardly any real sustainable impact on numbers because it's too little, too late.

We'll go into some sort of lockdown but it'll be a panic measure once it is out of control and it'll be too late to get control of quickly enough.

@PetitFours

Slowly but surely more and more areas are going to fall into Tier 3 restrictions. It's going to have little or no impact on numbers and then they'll impose the "fire break" they should have imposed in September. Which will also have hardly any real sustainable impact on numbers because it's too little, too late.

Tier 3 is a joke. It's tier 2 with pub closures but Wetherspoons can stay open.

Like that'll make a difference.

@annabel85 I agree with you, I can see a panic lockdown in about a months time when numbers are out of control.

Lockdowns and restrictions and masks all seem to be working really well then....
All I can here is the sound of a can being kicked down the road. Better hope they hurry up with that vaccine.

I can’t see any alternative but to a panic lockdown before xmas. Why oh why are they doing this!? Why didn’t they go for the sustainable approach with schools and circuit breakers. I’m so fucking angry.

Hospitals in the north won’t be able to cope in a few weeks time. Then what? They have another 2-3 weeks of increases to after that?

Agree feels like we’re inevitably headed towards everyone in Tier 2/3 followed by (short?) lockdown before Christmas. Maybe it’s even the governments plan? Not a good one but hard to see what else they’re thinking.

@MaxNormal

Lockdowns and restrictions and masks all seem to be working really well then.... All I can here is the sound of a can being kicked down the road. Better hope they hurry up with that vaccine.

Given the vaccines are looking pretty promising (and as yet, we've no reason to think that they won't be an option - data coming out soon etc) surely 'kicking the can down the road' is exactly the right thing to do 🤷‍♀️

If there were no sniff of any sort of vaccine, I think they would have to just say sod it and the numbers would rise as the economy would tip the balance. Currently, health prevention in the mid term tips the balance.

[quote Rainbowllama4]@annabel85 I agree with you, I can see a panic lockdown in about a months time when numbers are out of control.[/quote]
And me.

You can see that government are trying to preserve the economy (a bit) in tier 1 areas but tier 2/3 isn't going far enough to reduce the spread and once the hospitals all start saying they can't cope (which isn't far away from my tier 1 hospital) - he'll have to impose something greater but blame it all on the public (which if people are sticking to the rules, I guess it is everyone's fault)

Any circuit breaker now looks like end on November into the Xmas period.

We can’t bring anything down significantly without Test/Trace/Isolate being reformed. They will never admit that. Till then it’s on individuals to manage their risk and the risks to those around them.

looks as though the government plan is to keep this up until hospitals are at dangerous levels and only then rethink. Stupid as usual and as we saw earlier in the year it is much slower to to get levels back down.

Surely they only had one shot at a full national lockdown. We did it for weeks and now the country/ the government presumably just can’t afford another one. The debt is astronomical already.
If we can just about limp on until the vaccine with the tier system that is presumably all they can do? Happy to be corrected! But how can it be funded?

I just can't see that it's that straightforward. We know there's been a surge in university and school cases, but those are very definitely now slowing down. Hasn't Patrick Vallance just talked about cases slowing or levelling off? It's not as black and white as saying things will just rise and rise.

Honestly, I really don't know what is going to happen and if we can start vaccinating some by December, that is a light at the end of the tunnel. And we can always bring in other measures, like shutting schools for a couple of weeks if things are getting desperate (obviously that needs to be a last resort) I just don't think anything is predictable at this point in time. There is room for optimism too in all sorts of ways.

There’s no vaccine that’ll be ready anywhere near December. That’s six weeks away!

Last estimate I heard was end of summer 2021.

@Starlight101

Hospitals in the north won’t be able to cope in a few weeks time. Then what? They have another 2-3 weeks of increases to after that?

Stop being ridiculous and go have a lie down. Come back on here in a few weeks time and let's see if even one hospital in the North has closed.

"Tier 3 is a joke. It's tier 2 with pub closures but Wetherspoons can stay open."
In tier 2 you can see family and friends, in tier 3 you can't. That's the big difference surely.

As to the main point of the OP, Sage scientists have been known to get things wrong. In fact, their default setting is actually getting things wrong (and often by quite significant numbers) as well as using the stats to paint the worse possible picture. Weird thing is, unlike the rest of us when we fuck up in our jobs - eg the sack, a discipline, stage one warning - these people are never held accountable. They just carry on making their shite predictions.

@TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair

I just can't see that it's that straightforward. We know there's been a surge in university and school cases, but those are very definitely now slowing down. Hasn't Patrick Vallance just talked about cases slowing or levelling off? It's not as black and white as saying things will just rise and rise.

Honestly, I really don't know what is going to happen and if we can start vaccinating some by December, that is a light at the end of the tunnel. And we can always bring in other measures, like shutting schools for a couple of weeks if things are getting desperate (obviously that needs to be a last resort) I just don't think anything is predictable at this point in time. There is room for optimism too in all sorts of ways.

I want to be optimistic and you are right that possible transmission will level off with the measures in place. I'm in tier 2 but can only see the next option will be tier 3. I don't know what direction tier 3 areas will go in? The vaccine is hopeful and maybe we will get through on a wing and a prayer. It's the NHS situation that will determine whether circuit breaks or whatever they call them.

OP if you and others like you want to go hide under the stairs, feel free. The rest of us have got jobs to do, families to feed and roofs to keep over our heads.

Yes, Tier 3 is a joke because schools will stay open...even in a fire break the younger children will still be going.
A fire break will only delay things as others have said, not stamp the virus out.
The virus is never going away, get used to it. We'll have a vaccine at some point but in the meantime, start looking at ways of living with it, not constantly thinking we can somehow eradicate it any time soon.

@MaxNormal

Lockdowns and restrictions and masks all seem to be working really well then.... All I can here is the sound of a can being kicked down the road. Better hope they hurry up with that vaccine.

Isn't that exactly what's been said right from day 1? It was all about reducing the peaks (saving the NHS) not eliminating the virus. If anyone seriously thought covid would go away without a virus or hundreds of thousands of deaths they're deluded.

First time around, we had a pretty severe lockdown and it still took 2-3 months for the numbers to fall to reasonable low levels. A 2 or 3 week circuit break wouldn't achieve that because far more places would remain open this time around. It would probably slow down infections for a few weeks, but that's about all really. It'd need to be longer and stricter to get the numbers down to what they were in June.

It's a balancing act trying to keep as much open as possible without the numbers getting too high. Unfortunately, clearly too much was opened in August/September and that needs to be reigned in now, hence tier 3, which personally I don't think goes far enough.

@toxtethOgradyUSA

OP if you and others like you want to go hide under the stairs, feel free. The rest of us have got jobs to do, families to feed and roofs to keep over our heads.

Which is fine as long as you stay away from the vulnerable unless they are happy for you to get close to them. I.e. respect the 2 metre social distancing from strangers, wear your mask in enclosed places, don't go into peoples' houses if they don't want you to (even if it's your job or you claim to be exempt from masks!). Personally I don't care what you do, but keep away from me and my vulnerable family!