Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

This is not data as very basic hypothetical modelling/simulation of Covid epidemic/pandemic, but I thought it showed the situation re: control measures, R and spread really well visually.

The two links he mentions right at the beginning are also good here:

www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR1YYNiVeH-_bB40zkPNNyXkAgeByGYlPCfICK0GEyJozPRsio3KLYPpBYI

meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Oh my goodness did anyone see Dispatches on channel 4, it was about hygiene measure to keep us safe from covid. All I'll say is if anyone is going to watch it on catch up don't do it while you are eating and if you want a Costa coffee or to stay in a Britannia hotel then Torquay looks the safest bet.

One for all the data lovers.

Covid-19: The global crisis — in data
Charts and maps show paradoxes of a pandemic that has claimed a million lives:

ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/?fbclid=IwAR3anBsNc16nojONdyjGTE458sHbk-S6KJYDmMwPU9e6kGrbymuR2fGVwOA

@ancientgran

Oh my goodness did anyone see Dispatches on channel 4, it was about hygiene measure to keep us safe from covid. All I'll say is if anyone is going to watch it on catch up don't do it while you are eating and if you want a Costa coffee or to stay in a Britannia hotel then Torquay looks the safest bet.

Thanks for this, off to have a look.

@Bb14
I saw this a few days ago and it still baffles me that after all the clear and obvious paths that should be taken to gain control over this pandemic Europe seems to be plugging in gaps, trying to persuade people to "do the right thing for society" and really just messing about.
If we look at continents Europe -again- is driving the whole pandemic.

Be warned Regulus you might never want to eat anything of a Costa Coffee plate again. (Unless you are in Torquay obviously)

Nottinghamshire County Council have announced Tier 3 restrictions from 00.01 Thursday. Government announcement tomorrow.

I am by no means a cleanliness freak, don't have ocd....but....when did anyone - ever- think that eat/drink out establishments were clean?
And yes I occasionally did get take away coffee...fully knowing that it's anything but clean.
I cannot even count the number of times I had to ask for clean cutlery or glasses. In pubs after the first couple of pints you don't care, but in restaurants it's harder to look past....

I'm no clean freak either but when they find fecal coliforms on the table you are eating off it is a bit beyond what I can cope with. There is a reason we wash our hands when we go to the loo.

The surprising thing was how much it could vary, with the bacteria from zero to hundreds.

Some interesting data on some huge educational disparities here. This is something the government urgently needs to address (and listen to)rather than burying collective heads in the sand:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54695618

It would be wise to address this politically, let alone regarding issues to do with already existing inequalities. The keeping schools open at all costs mantra does not work if some schools are more open than others, to paraphrase Orwell.

710 teachers is 35%, so that means 2,029 teachers infected on that mid-October date. Given that isolation lasts 10 days from a positive test, that gives 203 positive test results per day.
506,400 teachers in total. So 0.04% new infections per day. Mid-sized so 15th had 19k cases per day or 0.03% of the population. That makes teachers 25% more likely to have covid than general population, or put another way, it suggests that 25% of teacher cases have been acquired at work.
I would say that's fairly low for no distancing with teenagers and in some cases other teachers. It's another covid paradox though, where it's a figure at the level where some could argue that's awful and others that it's not too bad.

Do they mean teachers, or "staff working in school"?
Local primary in tier 3 area has had 3 staff test positive: one teacher and two TAs. Only 2 children positive, both linked to the first teacher and TA (working in same classroom).

MRex, are you working that out against national figures? Don't forget, teachers have been told their workplaces are 'covid secure'!

I am most concerned about disparities and inequalities exacerbated by the level of even partial school closures in the North, especially. This data may worry the government, but who knows??

It's probably sloppy journalism culturally but it is an interesting question.

@Piggywaspushed , I was assuming it's 35% of UK figures because that's the most pessimistic slant.

If it was just England:
"North" = NW = 7.34m, NE 2.67m, Yorks = 5.5m. Total = 15.51m.
"Rest" = 40.77m.
So 38% of England's population, 35% of cases. Teachers in the North are less likely to catch covid than elsewhere. How is that right when the rates are so much higher in the North?
I'd change the calc I did above on overall infection rates to be England, but I have a work call, sorry.

I don't really have a view on the inequalities because I think levels of online provision can make a difference (plus I can't see the exams proceeding regardless, and they'd have to be simplified because of missing last term anyway).

Don't worry MRex, just wondered!

If anyone wants to redo the percentages.
Number of infections mid-October 710 teachers is 35%, so that means 2,029 teachers infected on that mid-October date.(Could add up the 10 days prior?)
Workforce: explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england.
Population by regions: www.statista.com/statistics/294681/population-england-united-kingdom-uk-regional/.

Worrying situation in Cornwall www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/18819835.e-cornwall-plea-stay-away-treliske-royal-cornwall-hospital/

I think we all know that Cornwall has very low covid numbers but the main Cornish hospital is struggling with other issues. This morning on local TV they showed 17 ambulances queuing with patients being treated in the ambulance because there was no room in A&E. Heaven help Cornwall if they get a big covid strike.

apple.news/A5x0HeRlvR7KkmDYJy0wk8g

I think we already knew this really though didn't we....

It would be wise to address this politically, let alone regarding issues to do with already existing inequalities. The keeping schools open at all costs mantra does not work if some schools are more open than others, to paraphrase Orwell. It does seem very unfair. I wonder how the reduction in computers/tablet provision is affecting kids in the worst hit areas?

@PrayingandHoping

https://apple.news/A5x0HeRlvR7KkmDYJy0wk8g

I think we already knew this really though didn't we....

I found this an interesting (and reassuring) article (from a paper in Cell). I shared it a few threads ago.

It talks about the fact that antibodies don't take the lead in COVID immunity, but that this doesn't mean that a vaccine won't work.

www.lji.org/news-events/news/post/t-cells-take-the-lead-in-controlling-sars-cov-2-and-reducing-covid-19-disease-severity/

@MRex

710 teachers is 35%, so that means 2,029 teachers infected on that mid-October date. Given that isolation lasts 10 days from a positive test, that gives 203 positive test results per day. 506,400 teachers in total. So 0.04% new infections per day. Mid-sized so 15th had 19k cases per day or 0.03% of the population. That makes teachers 25% more likely to have covid than general population, or put another way, it suggests that 25% of teacher cases have been acquired at work. I would say that's fairly low for no distancing with teenagers and in some cases other teachers. It's another covid paradox though, where it's a figure at the level where some could argue that's awful and others that it's not too bad.

Thanks for this, MREx, I came on here to see whether someone had done the analysis - especially as i was not clear from the article whether the figures meant '710 teachers tested on that date and found to be positive' or '710 teachers absent from work on that date due to positive tests', which would obviously mean very different things.

It is probably worth noting that there is significant pressure in many schools for staff NOT to get tested 'because being off work waiting for the test result [subtext 'which might be negative'] is so bad for the children'. Also significant pressure for staff not to admit they have been within 2m of children, because they have been 'told not to', and therefore they are not identified as close contacts of positive cases.

The teacher calculation is ignoring the fact that not only teachers are catching covid at work. The general population includes care home staff, nurses, bus drivers etc. They are 25% more likely than the average worker to catch covid, but the average does also include other high risk professions.

Thanks for this, MREx, I came on here to see whether someone had done the analysis - especially as i was not clear from the article whether the figures meant '710 teachers tested on that date and found to be positive' or '710 teachers absent from work on that date due to positive tests', which would obviously mean very different things..

Right - I've got the back a fag packet out again -

Indeed - statistically I can't see it being the former, as 2,028 (if 710 is 35%) of positive tests on Oct 16 alone from Teachers would be 16% of all tests that day being teachers..., which is … unlikely!

TBH, I would think it's most likely to either be "number of positive cases from teachers we've had reported to us from when schools went back". So over about 4 weeks - or "teachers we have off right now self isolating because of a positive test".

If it's the former, that suggests 2,028 Teacher cases in a month, If it's the latter, that suggests 2,2028 Teacher cases in 10 days or so.

In a month Sept 15-Oct 15, that would be 2028/425000 = 0.48% positivity rate for teachers over a month. In England we had 285,613 cases in that period - 285,613/55,000,000 = 0.52%.

In the 10 days Oct 5-15, there were 140,717 cases in England = 140717/55,000,000 = 0.26%.

Soooooo - if it's over a month, teacher infections are basically the same as England as whole. If 10 days, teachers would seem to be twice as likely to get it as the average population.

I would suggest the latter is more likely tbh

HUGE CAVEATS TO DATA HERE THOUGH! LOTS OF ASSUMPTIONS.

@PatriciaHolm I really hope it's the former of the two scenarios but the article does make reference to it being a "snapshot" on the 16 Oct, which does rather imply its teaching staff off on that day, rather than a cumulative total of staff off since September.