Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

So Warrington is going into T3. Most likely Thursday 00.01.

Here are some stats from the local paper which explain things a bit more:

He explained: "As of 11am this morning we have a total of 110 inpatients with Covid-19 at WHH – at midday yesterday this number was 116.

"Sadly there have been seven more Covid-19 positive patient deaths overnight – an occurrence we have not experienced since April.

"Fourteen of our Covid-19 patients are in critical care, in addition to a further nine non-Covid-19 patients in critical care.

Earlier in the week there were 6 deaths in a 24 hour period which is a lot for the number of cases and the size if the hospital.

Not only that but theres 23 people in critical case. I believe there are normally 20 beds. So i think this means they are now running at above normal capacity.

Its now more or less at the same point it was during the April peak. There is some talk from the hospital that they think the number of cases is stablising in the area so they are fairly hopeful about the situation being under control.

But given all this, it is quite remarkable that Warrington has only agreed T3 today, and only after the council requested talks from the government not the other way round. Its a very different picture from Manchester which was forced into it, despite the numbers there being much much better in pretty much all respects ive seen - cases compared to april, icu capacity, age profile.

And the age profile i think is the really telling bit here.

"The weekly case rate is 341 per 100,000 population. More worryingly is the 195 per 100,000 in over 60s, approximately twice the level of the national average. This equates to 717 cases in a seven-day period with test positivity currently at around 12 per cent.

Wasn't it Warrington who erroneously got invited to the Liverpool City Region talks? Could the different treatment literally come down to a poor understanding of Northern geography?

Red Have you found out any more about using the Cheshire hospitals (Countess & Leighton) as "overflow" for Liverpool (and Warrington)? I've looked through local news websites but it's not been mentioned.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54648323

Luton has voluntarily gone into tier 2. Not much more than a month after its previous restrictions were lifted

Oh goodness praying. My DS is due to play football there today...but I assume that's OK. I haven't seen much about sport reported for the tiers.

That article says people in Luton are being asked by their council to follow tighter rules, but without going into Tier 2. So it's still Tier 1.

@Piggywaspushed - no change for children's sports even if they move into Tier 2.

That's interesting as we had calls from residents there last night and they have been told they are tier 2. Just checked the council website and yes they are still tier 1 but have asked their residents to behave as if they are tier 2 🤨

Which is much like what happened before. Gov released their restrictions but the council kept it going for a lot longer. They must think it will work again (it won't.... a lot of residents had no idea they weren't meant to meet in each other's homes last time!)

Interesting piece about a change in the US CDC definition of close contact.
Six Feet Is Not Enough and 15 Minutes Is Too Long
elemental.medium.com/amp/p/69071e5750d2?source=social.tw&__twitter_impression=true&s=03

So the data for areas with large student populations seems to be showing a peak which is now slowing. Not surprising as start of term involves lots of people moving and sharing germs, freshers flu has been an accepted part of university life for decades.
My question is will we see the same thing in December when most of these students travel home and then what about January. Do we just accept this is an inevitable part of educating our young people or does there come a point where we say those who can study online stay ‘home’.

NuttyinNotts, the government if they are making evidence led decisions they should be following the data in each area. We are led to believe that pressure on hospital beds is one of the key factors in deciding a T3 lockdown is required. They should be collecting data from across the country on the icu and bed problem. We know it is being done on a regional level and we know that g manchester certainly are collecting and monitoring this data on a trust by trust basis even if they are publishing it as this was demonstrated by the debacle with the MEN over this exact type of data set (only for this info to be released to the MEN the day after the Burnham Fiasco).

Why its not publicly accessible data when its now a key marker for t3 admission, is quite frankly beyond me. The lack of transparency on this is dreadful.

T3 is supposedly bed pressure / cases per 100,000 / age demograph profile of cases.

We don't have eyes on two of these by council / trust level. Thats nonsense.

Geography should also be considered too because of contigency planning for overflow. Its not an excuse to say oh its an oversight because of the mix up over the LCR.

As ive been typing this, ive just had a message saying the local paper is now reporting that theyve moved forward plans to go to T3 to Tuesday 00.01 after previously saying Thursday 00.01. This is only adding to local frustrations about how this is being handled. People who want to adhere have made plans accordly only to be mucked about again. Whilst Warrington clearly has just about the best case for going to T3 theres been, the mucking about over it and now shifting dates etc etc is causing stress and anxiety. Not only this the schools broke up for half term yesterday so lots of people were going away yesterday or today anyway! So given this the council and government clearly werent concerned about the local rates and potentially spreading the virus across the country or they'd have tried to get the restrictions in before then.

Pussycatinboots, when ive looked around for data on bed etc for various different councils / trusts / newspapers in the north, i found that very few seemed to have data on beds. I think there was only 2 or 3. Halton and Warrington NHS Trust data is on their website and is being reported in both the Liverpool Echo and Warrington local newspaper which is why its particularly easy to find. And even more of an annoyance as to why the government havent done anything previously when the hospital itself is being shit hot on this - its just about the most transparent area in the north of whats actually going on.

No excuse on this. Once again it just serves to show up the mismanagement and lack of transparency on this on just about every level. And this is the thing giving me the most rage. Its being badly handled with just about no thought and consideration and strikes me more as being driven by when people can be arsed to do something about it.

The link about beds in use is in the OP @RedToothBrush, there is no "lack of transparency" because it's updated all the time - www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/. I've personally posted it multiple times to draw attention to it.
That won't show you every layer of contingency plan around stopping other care to make extra beds / opening nightingales etc, plans like that don't fit on a spreadsheet and are dependent on knowledgeable decisions to make changes.

Further to that, you can see the updated admissions every day on the corona virus dashboard if you drill down by region: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North West.

There is lack of transparency in terms of local restrictions. How is that data remotely useful to the public is terms of understanding why they are going into lockdown but the neighbouring area isnt. This is my point. The regional level data just isnt helpful.

@MRex

Further to that, you can see the updated admissions every day on the corona virus dashboard if you drill down by region: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North West.

Use that data to explain why Liverpool but not Warrington, then why Lancashire and then G Manchester and then Warrington but not Cheshire East or Cheshire West.

This matters to people seeing all these invisible borders being erected around them and they are having to plan and rearrange their lives and businesses accordingly.

This thread was set up to share data. If anyone wants data, just put in a post to ask if anybody can find it for them. There's no need for long angry rants just because you couldn't find something, nor aggressive challenges to explain data from specific towns. If you're interested then you can look at the data sources and raise specific discrepancies that might be interesting for discussion. I haven't looked because I don't live there, and I don't work for you.

Not sure the aggression is helpful, @MRex?

Agree the hospital data is v hard to interpret - it reminds me of earlier this summer when the positive test data was sort of available but very hard to make any sense of. I'm sure there is a way government data scientists could make the hospital data clearer and easier to understand in terms of the key metrics, what they mean and how they are being used in policy terms.

Devils advocate here, bed data : I understand the feeling of not being given all the data which can lead to mistrust in administration. However, there is also the adage that too much knowledge without context, can be a dangerous thing. I actually would advocate that not all data should be available to the general public. Why do you need to know? Do you have expertise in this area? Do most of the armchair critics on MN?

I could give you all sorts of data, which is available to DH in the course of his job, and is available to many hundreds of people like him, but they understand the data, and are working with it, and believe it or not, are actually trying to get the best out of the NHS in these extraordinary times. It is often very frustrating that the narrative is always that everyone involved is doing a shit job, and don't know what they are doing.

Excuse me @IrenetheQuaint? Check again for the rudeness from @RedToothBrush. You have a poster there who didn't say thank you for the information they supposedly wanted being provided, who then says "use that data to explain" without saying please, who deliberately links the higher level not lower level data to mask that the information is there in the other post, and who is making random demands of someone who merely provided them with data they said they wanted. All this from a poster who already successfully drove away the lovely OP (see threads #24, #25, #26 for the pattern). I was very restrained actually, given the circumstances.

@Baaaahhhhh

Devils advocate here, bed data : I understand the feeling of not being given all the data which can lead to mistrust in administration. However, there is also the adage that too much knowledge without context, can be a dangerous thing. I actually would advocate that not all data should be available to the general public. Why do you need to know? Do you have expertise in this area? Do most of the armchair critics on MN?

I could give you all sorts of data, which is available to DH in the course of his job, and is available to many hundreds of people like him, but they understand the data, and are working with it, and believe it or not, are actually trying to get the best out of the NHS in these extraordinary times. It is often very frustrating that the narrative is always that everyone involved is doing a shit job, and don't know what they are doing.

I dunno. I think that when the government is making decisions which are based on data then they should be prepared to share a (slightly simplified as necessary, with caveats) version of that data.

This isn't about whether the NHS is doing a shit job (I suspect they're pretty good at managing bed capacity after years of underfunding), it's about how the government uses the data to make decisions that have a massive impact on people's lives. This is a good (I thought) article in the Manchester Evening News trying to get to the bottom of the situation in Manchester, with zero success because of the secrecy and obfuscation.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/secrecy-spin-surrounding-greater-manchesters-19131905

@Baaaahhhhh

Devils advocate here, bed data : I understand the feeling of not being given all the data which can lead to mistrust in administration. However, there is also the adage that too much knowledge without context, can be a dangerous thing. I actually would advocate that not all data should be available to the general public. Why do you need to know? Do you have expertise in this area? Do most of the armchair critics on MN?

I could give you all sorts of data, which is available to DH in the course of his job, and is available to many hundreds of people like him, but they understand the data, and are working with it, and believe it or not, are actually trying to get the best out of the NHS in these extraordinary times. It is often very frustrating that the narrative is always that everyone involved is doing a shit job, and don't know what they are doing.

Because without data, are people supposed to have blind faith in the government? Someone in one town can visit their friends, whilst someone in another has their business closed down. When there are such varying restrictions across the country, people need to understand why. If that data isn't accessible, then for in some cases other things will fill that vacuum, whether it be random anecdotes, conspiracy theories or something else. If people understand why their area is singled out then they are far more likely to comply.

Table from @RP131 showing 100 England Local Authorities by positives per 100K population in last 7 days, up to 3 days ago. The LA are in the colour of their tier. Places with falling rates have the rate highlighter in bright green.

Nottingham an outlier, in Tier 2 and towards the top- but their cases are falling.

Bright green means lower than previous period.

twitter.com/RP131/status/1319672034276892672

Good job Essex was put in tier 2 so its easier to spot our local authorities down the bottom end of the table...

Long time lurker joining the thread, I come in peace 💗✌️🕊️
Thank you for all the calm rational discussion at this difficult and confusing time 🙏

You challenged me in saying i was wrong about transparency of data.

So i responded to explain why this data is insufficient. And you seem to think me challenging is rude.

Data is about understanding. We use data to make decisions. These decisions are being made, but at present since we cant see the relevant data to our areas about the decision there is no transparency.

If you can't understand why this data is important to everyone and not just me, then you are just being difficult. Its not me being rude.

I think you've basically got a problem with me rather than what im saying.

shrugs

If where we are headed is primarily about local lockdowns over the next 12 months then the data relating to this is the most important data out there now. Otherwise you get a loss of trust and compliance. Which affects x, y and z.

My point: councils and nhs trusts should be routinely reporting this is these are the key data points that trigger / release us from lockdowns.

We also need to monitor economic changes on these local levels because this could indicate problems because covid rates are so closely linked to deprivation rates. It indicates that more financial support may be necessary to control the virus.

Regional level is not good enough if decision making is made at council level.

But yes. I'm being rude rather than pointing out how a local example shows the inconsistency and why we need these data sets and why they are important.

We should question whether what is supplied is sufficient for the purposes we need.

Its not.

Whilst the stuff in the OP is important its also pretty damn useless at the same time in terms of monitoring whats happening beyond a very large overview.

That makes it rather meaningless in some respects too.

If people understand why their area is singled out then they are far more likely to comply. That is the crucial point isn't it.