Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Nellodee Another excerpt:

Experts say it is possible that doctors have set a lower clinical threshold for admission to intensive care because the system is not as overloaded as during the first wave.

Yet the improvements have come even though patients are entering intensive care with roughly the same "Apache" score as the first wave – an indicator of the probability of dying based on age, oxygen levels, blood pressure, heart rate and blood cell counts.

So although patients are just as sick, they are far less likely to die.

@FATEdestiny

Nottingham hospitals have stopped non-urgent surgery until November. Nottingham Post (local rag) reporting Tier 3 talks likely to conclude next week. Suggestion the announcement will be Monday to move into Tier 3 Wednesday.

Confirmed Non-urgent surgery stopped at NUH until 6 November.

www.nuh.nhs.uk/welcome-to-nuh

That's very good news, then. And the shorter stay duration should help expand capacity quite a lot over the last wave.

I hope we give our NHS staff everything they need to continue doing their job this well. We cannot afford to fuck this up.

Thanks for the collation of sources and threads so far @BigChocFrenzy.

They have been very useful to dip into and I've discovered sources I would never have found on my own.

I've liked your style!

I do want to point out that I didnt follow the end of the last thread we'll due to being flung into isolation when a school bubble closed. I'm not sure who said what.

The point about not responding with and labelling people with the term "conspiracy" shuts down debate and is therefore can be seen as form of bullying. The behaviour that is. Everyone is discussing data with compassion here from their own POV.

And bigchoc has worked tirelessly for 6 months to keep them going, for which we are all extremely appreciative .

I know outright conspiracy theorists and I've just heartily debated the point with them as debate is definitely more effective than no debate.

In the same vein, being labelled a bully is also a form of bullying. Any form of name calling and negative labelling is.
There's no need or room for it in debate.
I'm extremely sorry if it sounded like I was accusing anyone. I was trying to make the point that dismissing points with words like 'conspiracy' to someone directly, isn't great.

Long time lurker dropping in to say how much I value this thread and its predecessors for highlighting research and data and for the informed and intelligent debate thereon. I hope it can continue.

I think the fear and stress of the current moment is impacting everyone.

It is very much the case in real life. There's lots of people I know acting very out of character and its laced with very real anger.

I don't think its escapable either. Its a reflection of the world and what we face.

The problem isn't Covid. Its a breakdown in our ability to talk to and empathise with others. Everyone is guilty of it atm. Its part of an ongoing issue, and the isolation of covid certainly can't have helped either - people losing their patience and social skills. And its everywhere. Not just MN.

Please stay BigChoc.

At the very least we haven't even started on the joys of the sewage yet 💩

Red I'm seeing that in real life among colleagues.

BCF

I have previously been on these threads under a different user name.

I deactivated my account a few weeks ago in disgust at a post of my being deleted as a personal attack (not my style). MN did actually reinstate post.

But I got called a troll and told I had an agenda, purely for disagreeing with some people.

Unfortunately this thread is no longer a place for reasoned debate.

I think MN would be a worse place without you being on it BCF but sadly I also think its time for this thread to come to an end.

Its no longer possible to have a different view than some on the thread and there is astounding hypocrisy.

I will deactivate my account again after this as it was 100% the right choice.

Before I go Red I agreed with your long post. I would have preferred more managed levels of the virus over the summer when people were at their healthiest. But I do think we need to start being realistic. This isn't going away.

For those concerned about economics v health - Iowa didnt close much but they are finding people dont come, so businesses close for lack of custom.

And as an anecdote - or "lived experience" if you prefer I had several large expenses planned for this year that wont be happening. Not buying anything large that involves delivery people needing to come inside my house, not getting work done in the house because I wont have workmen in, not getting a new car because I'm not sure how they'd do a covid safe test drive. Also not going on holiday abroad and if we travel in the uk it wont be anywhere in the north.

NHS staff are treated like shit. No PPE initially, blamed for being unable to carry on with routine work but having to watch people die and try to ease their passing. Blamed for passing on infection when it's as likely to be asymptomatic patients and unreliable tests, although it could be you getting it from those patients and passing it when you are asymptomatic but you are not able to get a test yourself. Worrying about passing it to your family. Pissed off with the idiots like this www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/police-investigate-superspreader-who-flew-19107065 who brought it on themselves. You still have to try and save them from their stupidity while knowing they could be killing you and your family.

America has 1000 deaths a day now, Brazil has passed 155,000 coronavirus deaths and 5.3 million infected. How many of those will have permanent reduced lung and heart capacity or other damage no-one can yet say.

Your health is the most important thing you have. With it you can start another business, without it your life is considerably limited.

@BigChocFrenzy thanks for the oasis of almost calm during social media madness, can understand why you dont want to carry on. The thread has been deliberately driven off course recently, I dont accept any justification for that and I dont want to read rants either.

NI’s Public Health Agency has released their data for Week 42 (up to 18 Oct).

Some interesting things in the data, they have newly added details on schools(much more in the report, worth a read) and care homes:

• 17 Care home outbreaks reported in the week (out of around 465) mostly in the Southern Trust (I.e. not Derry and Strabane or Belfast which have the highest case numbers). They have broken this down into symptomatic and asymptomatic - much larger proportion of asymptomatic outbreaks since data has been recorded in August
• 608 incidents reported in all schools (no date range given) involving 519 schools (50% of all schools) 39% of these were clusters of 2-5 cases, 11% were clusters of 5 or more and the highest proportion (76%) were in Belfast area.
• 75% of single cases at schools in NI (to date) have been at primaries compared to clusters of more than 5 cases being 80% at post primary - potentially supporting previous data on teenagers being more likely to spread than younger children. They have also compared proportion of schools affected vs community rate/100,000 population
• They have provide pupil/staff breakdown for schools, which again supports the differences between younger children and teenagers - primary 58% pupils compared to 79% at post primary

www.publichealth.hscni.net/sites/default/files/2020-10/Monthly%20Epidemiological%20Bulletin_week%2042_0.pdf

Please stay BigChoc

What time does the ONS report come out on Friday?

Very sorry BCF is going. You have been fantastic. Very happy to send chocolate or alcohol if that is any solace, I've really appreciated this.

I think we should definitely keep the thread going, it's great to have somewhere to discuss the numbers. It would be even better if BCF were to remain involved of course.

Take care x

ONS infection survey is out! www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tFP1zcsNM0qyk1KsjBg9OIvyElNLE5VSMnPUy9RSM8HAJrmCe4&q=please+don%27t+go&rlz=1CAKMJF_enGB912&oq=please+dont&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j46i10i433j46i10l2j0j46i10l2.12441j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The number of infections continues to increase; an estimated 433,300 people (95% credible interval: 407,500 to 459,300) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 10 to 16 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 130 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 130 to 1 in 120).

I'm a long time lurker and have benefitted from the wisdom in these threads to (mostly) keep calm, thanks to the efforts of @BigChocFrenzy and others.

I remember ages ago that studies were being done into sewage waste, and I just spotted this BBC report today. It's an interesting read although with the present widespread and high numbers of cases, I suspect its current value as an 'early warning' sign are probably limited.
Covid: Sewage sites to test for more traces of virus www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54646451

I think the fear and stress of the current moment is impacting everyone.

So very true. I am very bad tempered, angry and stressed right now. Have hitherto been quite placid, following the rules, following data and info here as well as other media.

Waiting to go into tier 3 - which actually doesn't impact me that much more - it's the WAITING and wondering how long we can all live like this.

I appreciate your thread BigChoc and have for a while. Mn isn’t great atm, hard to discuss, quite a bit of anger from various posters. Anyway I hope you stay.

Your health is the most important thing you have. With it you can start another business, without it your life is considerably limited.

This crisis isn't ending this year. Nor possibly even next.

Our health is precious. But so is living the life we have.

The dawning realisation that we may not get a vaccine which works very well - and may still mean that some of those who have the vaccine but are at risk of it might still die. Covid also (increasingly) being used in ways which will result in things that impact our health in other ways (no job = poorer health) means I do think we need to rethink how we view this.

The health v economy thing is massively interconnected. If you get poorer, your health goes down. That puts you more at risk of getting covid / being more ill from covid.

We can't escape the structrial reality of existing inequality nor chronic underfunding of our health service which leaves us much more at the mercy of the wealth/health problem. Far more than Germany. Or Sweden. Or anywhere else in Western Europe. Covid is only showing this up by putting a mirror to it.

Its a catch 22. You can't priortise health at the expense of the economy because if you tank the economy you impact health outcomes.

In essence its all about hospital beds and nothing else. Its not the death rate now. Its bed management. Thats all.

For years we've had a problem with bed blocking and staff shortages. In reality this crisis has simply spilled over into wider life.

The public health crisis in the UK didn't start when someone got on a plane and flew from China / Italy / wherever with it. It started much earlier than that and thats whats unravelling.

I am concerned - my Dad is extremely clinicly vulnerable. He goes with my Mum to Sainsburys at 6.30am on a Monday. Thats his life. He is retired. And even with a vaccine, his life next year may be the same as this needing to hide away as there still isn't sufficient immunity in the population. The economy stuff is relevant to him because if it tanks that means there is a real danger of less health care available and you get rationing of beds and all kinds of other services. Its not about 'still being able to rebuild businesses'. Thats a remarkably naive idea. For starters, most people start businesses off the back of bank loans of some form at some point. If the banks are up shit creek, loans dry up and if your old business goes bust you can go to the back of the queue for any available loans there are.

You can't priortise health over wealth, because they walk hand in hand with covid.

All these debates seem to centre on the idea that its one or the other. Even the idea that as long as you've got your health you can rebuild your business. Its really not that simple. And this black and white thinking even amongst really intellect people who understand data is remarkably blinkered because they are only starring at one thing and seeing the merit/value of one thing. Its really really unhelpful.

@BigChocFrenzy

icecreamsummer20 The continual sniping and accusations from you and a couple of others are why I won't be continuing the threads and I will be quitting MN by the end of this thread

So congratulations, you have managed to drive me off MN

That would be a real shame BigChoc. Your threads have been such a helpful and clear source of information. Why does MumsNet always have to turn into nastiness.

I was musing this morning on the issue of restrictions and their effectiveness (or not). I've always been of the view that it was a reality that people simply will not socially distance or comply with restrictions long term. Not because they are selfish or stupid (although some are!) but because it is contrary to human nature and consequently really hard.

I had thought we would get more compliance through the Winter but I'm not sure about that now (that's not a criticism, I can completely see why it might be happening).

I wonder if we should now start to focus less on which restrictions we think, if complied with, would have the biggest impact on R/case numbers and more on which restrictions people are most likely to comply with and lead with those?

Have there been any studies on which elements of the restrictions people are complying with the most/least? Do we know whether the reduction in isolation periods in France has increased compliance?

I have also appreciated these threads, and Big Choc's frequent contributions which kept them going, along with a number of other regular posters. I 'lurk' because I have nothing to add to the discussions, but I don't want them to end without acknowledging all the effort people have gone to on here, and what a difference it has made to me, and the young people who have me as a source of information as a result of me reading this thread. So thank you.

The SAGE minutes released a week or so ago (Iirc) categorised each measure by how likely people were to comply, I think.

But yes, sometimes measures are announced and you do think, "Do they really imagine most people are going to stick to that?"

Eg the return to WFH BJ called for in early September. Has it actually changed any business's policy, given that many were so pleased the kids returned to school and therefore they could actually go to work?