The problem they have is that closing hospitality has the smallest effect on R and costs them a fortune.
They can model households meeting outside only till cows come home but the reality is most aren’t adhering, which will only get worse as the weather turns.
Some areas have been under restrictions for months now and the restrictions are not having enough of an effect.
They need to start reducing R by areas they have control over and education is the main area that they can control. They’ll hold off as long as they can but there simply isn’t anything else they can do which has enough of an impact or that people will voluntarily adhere to in big enough numbers.