Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@CoffeeandCroissant

Pfizer and Biopharmaceutical New Technologies (BioNTech Mainz, Germany) are jointly developing a COVID-19 vaccine.

Germany also agreed to buy the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine back in June. uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/astrazeneca-wins-coronavirus-vaccine-deal-with-germany-france-italy-and-the-netherlands-idUKKBN23K0HW

Those 2 are likely to be the first to release stage 3 trial efficacy data with Moderna also probably doing so before the end of the year.

Interesting info thanks

"Obviously far too early to say anything definitive but by specimen date it looks as though there might be the start of a slight levelling off or at least slowing down of the rise (even excluding the lag period)."

Sunshine That may be due to the lag effect, the incomplete data of the last 4 days or so
We need some more days' data

Quick google turns up cheap humidity detectors in room thermometers, I googled humidity detector and found them at £6.

My home is 50% humidity and 54% outdoors (according to my digital thermometer).

Never have I been so glad to work in damp draughty office!

@Cloudburstagain

How did you check your humidity *@BigChocFrenzy*?

.... I have a large wall clock that gives temp & humidity, as well as date & day It was a retirement present to myself in Feb, to keep up to date in retirement - turned out handy for this crisis

Looking good for vaccination next year....

but I have the horrible suspicion the UK program could be organised by clones of Dido Harding and Serco
which may mean systems for vaccination, testing, t&t all cocked up

Terrible mistake in Birmingham handing out used test kits.

UK top 10 LAs for 7-day incidence, with weekly history to 11 Oct (COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

Manchester & Newcastle the only ones slightly down

England top LAs, sorry
Derry in NI may well be in the UK top 10

Mixed messages about how many kits and if anyone reused them. Link here www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-54539328

I think these deaths by NHS England are issued Wednesdays as updates to the previous figures going back several days ?
Ages given, all 40+

COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

NHS England reported 68 more COVID-19 hospital deaths that occurred over 8 dates:

9 = 13th Oct (1d ago)
36 = 12th Oct (2d ago)
11 = 11th Oct (3d ago)
3 = 10th Oct (4d ago)
6 = 9th Oct (5d ago)
1 = 8th Oct (6d ago)
1 = 5th Oct (9d ago)
1 = 2nd Oct (12d ago)

54 reported last Weds

The powers that be don't need a clone.

"Dido's super , she can do anything, she's great!"

Research has found that 78 % of people who reported sudden loss of smell and/or taste (at the height of the pandemic) had Covid-19 antibodies.
Of these people, 40 % did not have a cough or fever.

https://www.dudleynews.co.uk/news/18764808.scientists-warn-new-symptom-mean-covid-19/?ref=ar

@BigChocFrenzy

"Obviously far too early to say anything definitive but by specimen date it looks as though there might be the start of a slight levelling off or at least slowing down of the rise (even excluding the lag period)."

Sunshine That may be due to the lag effect, the incomplete data of the last 4 days or so
We need some more days' data

Agreed, but the period between 5th and 9th October (which you'd hope is mostly complete now unless there are very significant delays in results/more missing data) looks relatively flat. Not definitive but better at this stage than a clear rise.

Updated RKI recommendations: Preventive measures in schools during theCOVID-19 pandemic

https://translate.google.de/translate?um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&client=tw-ob&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rki.de%2FDE%2FContent%2FInfAZ%2FN%2FNeuartigesCoronavirus%2FPraevention-Schulen.pdf%3FFblob%3DpublicationFile

The primary goals of infection prevention in schools are:
• The maintenance of a "regular", reliable, continuous teaching offer as Face-to-face teaching.
• Avoidance of complete and preventive or reactive school closings.
• Protection of all pupils and employees from a COVID-19 infection - prevention comes before reaction.
• A large part of the educational staff and pupils with previous illnesses should also be without increased risk of COVID-19 taking part in classes (note: a general Assignment to a risk group is not possible, it is an individual medical assessmentof risk factors required).
• Preventing the uncontrolled spread of infection in schools and in the school environment
Infection protection and hygiene measures, ensuring that cases can be found quickly,
Traceability of infection chains and consistent implementation of isolation and
Quarantine.
• Strengthening the trust of the student body, the legal guardian as well as the School staff in a safe environment in the school.
• Consistency with the measures recommended for the general population,based on the current scientific evidence and traceability of the procedure conveyed through clear communication
....
The risk of infection for pupils and school staff can be minimized by taking suitable measures, howeverdo not reduce to zero.
It should not be higher within the school than in the general population

@knittingaddict thank you for your post. I hope you and all you love stay healthy. I think you are absolutely right - people have lost sight of what a covid death looks like. Even in the best of circumstances in hospital, no family can visit.

This is why many of us are worried about schools - they have been opened against the WHO recommendations on safe school reopening (and Indie Sage and basically every independent group of scientists). They are the perfect environments for spread. They are the environments Fauci etc say to avoid (crowds, indoors, without masks, for long periods). In NYC the threshold for closing schools is way below the infection levels in large parts of the Uk. No money at all has been put into making them safer.

In many parts of the UK children ARE NOT receiving a full-time education. It is disruptive and not conducive to learning as @EducatingArti has pointed out. 'Schools open full-time' is just simply not true, and will be less and less true as time goes on. Whole bubbles are now not even all being sent home for a positive case, without knowledge of the number of asymptomatic children, we just don't know if this is good enough.

Some parents / teachers are older, some have 'underlying conditions'. People in these categories fear dying alone in hospital and the life long burden this would place on their children. Parents are scared as they send children to school every day knowing that if covid gets in the school there is literally nothing to stop it spreading and children bringing it home. And yet, fines - even for ECV parents - and threats if children are not sent in.

If we let our desire for data make us lose sight of empathy for people on this thread, many of whom are having to deal with impossible situations and decisions daily, then we are in dire straits indeed as a country.

The risk of infection for pupils and school staff can be minimized by taking suitable measures, howeverdo not reduce to zero. It should not be higher within the school than in the general population

Can we import some German experts here please, to run things? If only this was the approach here.

7-day averages in England
Nottingham a long way ahead of Knowsley

Richard@RP131 UK

Top 15 of both Upper and Lower Tier Local Authorities in England:

( graphs from Richard@RP131 UK)

7-day averages, top 10 in:

NW England
Yorkshire & Humber
NE England

7 day cases per 100k - is there anywhere where you can see how these have changed over time for a particular local authority or other area?

@BigChocFrenzy

Looking good for vaccination next year....

but I have the horrible suspicion the UK program could be organised by clones of Dido Harding and Serco
which may mean systems for vaccination, testing, t&t all cocked up

From the government that can't organise a piss up in a brewery its a guarentee.

@eeeyoresmiles

7 day cases per 100k - is there anywhere where you can see how these have changed over time for a particular local authority or other area?

... The only info I have for that are 2 links in the OP ==> pls anyone post if they have a better Uk / England link for following cases history

1. If you want a graph, you can use the cases section of the dashboard and choose your LA e.g. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Amber%20Valley

but it is always a few days in the past

2. I like to look at the Imperial table and click off all columns escept the cases /100,000 for the last 2 weeks, plus their extrapolations for the current week and the next week

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54536197

Apparently they're concerned, despite social distancing being possible,
and quite spacious that the house of commons isn't safe for vulnerable MPs.

And getting extra perspex screens and face coverings.

Interesting double standards at work here. I could think of a few locations with greater need of the money for those perspex screens.

France at 22591 today.

According to Macron an average of 200 people into ICU each day. ICUs over 30% full of Covid patients across the country, higher in some cities. Situation critical. The government has rédeclared à state of emergency.

Curfew from 21h-6h in 9 cities, starting 00.01 Saturday. That means you have to be home by 21h. So if you’re live 30 mins away you need to be going by 20h30. Exemptions for people who work at night and for those seeking medical help. Curfew will last minimum 4 weeks, looking to extend to 6. And then if it goes well, they’ll reopen slowly.

Recommending masks at home with any non-resident family. And introducing rule of 6, including children.

50% of patients in ICU in France are under 65.