Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Offtopic question to @BigChocFrenzy
what are big german rening sites like zoopla in the uk?

@TheSunIsStillShining

Offtopic question to *@BigChocFrenzy* what are big german rening sites like zoopla in the uk?

... the best is www.immobilienscout24.de/wohnen/mietwohnungen.html

Place marking

@FingonTheValiant

50% of patients in ICU in France are under 65.

... Curfew sounds sensible and commensurate with the crisis

Do you know the % free capacity in ICU, or beds, in Paris and nationally ?

France and NL have both requested to reserve some capacity in German ICUs, plenty available so far, but ....

Some local stats in UK believed to be inaccurate with some student cases being registered in their home town rather than uni town because t+t used home gp location of the student.

Loads of the cases have disappeared from my borough on the MSOA map. LOADS. Also from other areas one might have expected to be suspects for uni cases elsewhere. But they're still in the borough cases by specimen date table. Could it be a test of the postcode update, or is it just a bug in the fancy new map?

Ah no wait, map must be broken, all the cases are disappearing in loads of places.

Paris appears to suggest there are no empty ICU beds. As the Covid % goes up, the percentage of surgery patients (for example) goes down, they’re just taking ICU beds from other things. Overall in Ile-de-France they’re at over 40% covid (524 people). But in Seine-Saint-Denis it’s 58%, and 55% in Val’d’Oise.

There are normally 5432 ICU beds in France. One département in Normandie is at 116% covid occupation... the government proved 12000 in case of a second wave, but it hasn’t happened.

Macron said a big part of the problem this time is that ICUs are filling up all over, so there’ll be no moving patients around.

«The government proved» should read «promised»

*1) If you want a graph, you can use the cases section of the dashboard and choose your LA
e.g.
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Amber%20Valley

but it is always a few days in the past

2. I like to look at the Imperial table and click off all columns escept the cases /100,000 for the last 2 weeks, plus their extrapolations for the current week and the next week

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table*

Thanks, I have looked at those. The first one I look at every day for areas I'm interested in. I hadn't spotted you could hide columns for the second one though - that's useful. (What I'd really like to see is something like the 7 day average line on the main graph - the first link - but with the scale showing per 100k numbers rather than absolute numbers. I'm curious to see how fast areas in the SE are catching up current areas in the north by that measure.)

Well our spare ICU cpacity is ~10,000 beds, but going by the 1st wave you'll have to share with Spain, NL and a few others,

... not to mention Germans
Over 600 now in ICU here

That's to fing and France

COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

England COVID-19 Healthcare

628 admissions on the 11th Oct, 22% (+113) increase over the previous day.

3905 in hospital on the 13th Oct, 7% (+240) increase over the previous day.

441 in ventilation beds on the 13th Oct, 4% (+15) increase over the previous day.

NW England (COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

Doesn't show beds let

beds still left

==> Does "in ventilation beds" mean being ventilated ?

If so, I see what Van-Tam means by "deaths baked in "

Going by the survival rates in the last ICNARC report, that's ~200 deaths just to be expected from those currently ventilated in England

The progression dashboard with 111/999 triaged has some interesting views: digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/progression.

North East is looking a little better, North West still dire and Yorkshire looking worse. So Nottingham looks dreadful more because the rest of Midlands is improving . London / SE/ SW cases are very high against triage, suspend questions until we understand the postcode issue. Strange outliers; how is Kingston upon Thames up so much yet Merton down so much? Bristol triages also going up a lot.

@FingonTheValiant

50% of patients in ICU in France are under 65.

That isn’t unsurprising - ITU can be physically very tough, many of the very elderly would not be considered good candidates for aggressive ITU treatment. I would expect most of the over 65s in ITU to be 65-80 rather than 80-105

Strange outliers; how is Kingston upon Thames up so much yet Merton down so much?

Kingston is the home to its own university and halls for Roehampton and St Mary's, don't think there's any in Merton is there?

[quote cathyandclare]Do you mean the MSOA map RTB or another one? The MSOA one is here in lovely colours!

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map[/quote]
Apologies if I missed it but what does 'suppressed' mean? As it's where I live.

It means there's 0-3 cases so won't show as it could be identifying.

RE HUMIDITY can someone explain in basic terms I read the article but lets say a large airy room with high ceilings has some windows open in colder weather - do we need to make the room warmer or colder?

Colder the virus hardens - the fat - the windows however keep the room well ventilated but what can we do about humidity?

Mr Constable says the situation at Warrington and Halton hospitals is ‘escalating pretty quickly’.

He said there are currently 83 in-patients with Covid-19, of which 12 are in the intensive care unit.

He confirmed the unit is typically configured to have no more than 20 patients in normal circumstances – and that there will be other patients who aren’t coronavirus positive being looked after in intensive care.

Mr Constable said all the patients with the virus are being looked after at Warrington Hospital.

He stated that at the peak of the pandemic there were 124 patients in total with Covid-19, with 22 in intensive care.

“So we are very rapidly approaching that figure that we saw back in April and clearly it is of concern that we’re getting there and we’re getting there so quickly,” said Mr Constable.

But he added the rate of escalation does not appear to be as rapid as it was earlier in the year and there are ‘tried and tested’ escalation plans in place.

That's at least 60% capacity albeit with the escalation cavet.

Keep room well ventilated but heated sufficiently to prevent it getting cold, so imo 18C+
(my place is 24-25 C even though I air every 90 mins or so)

but check humidity is > 40% - buy a humidifer ?

On an earlier thread I posted a German office App to calculate how often to ventilate a room of given height & floor area, for the chosen number of people
Airing rooms has always been a national obession here !