Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@BigChocFrenzy quick google your PC used was terminated by the PO 8/14

Won't a circuit breaker be too late again by then? I thought the idea was we locked down too late last time?
That's why we have highest deaths behind Spain?

Coffee that article makes me want to cry.
Why can't we learn from countries that do it well, he said in article they tried t emulate South Korea, Japan etc.

Quite right to say that Liverpool will convert other beds to ICU beds - it will be their theatre beds, I believe they stopped routine surgery last week. They'll also push anyone out of ICU who can be moved into a less heavily staffed unit. But that doesnt necessarily give you a lot of beds and they have to be staffed by people whose specialty is not intensive care. No idea what their capacity is in those beds but they'll run out of those beds too if numbers continue to rise and then you have people not getting a ventilator when they need it or attempts to wean off too quickly and then you get a higher death rate. It wont necessarily be covid deaths because if you need intensive care after your road accident and your chance of survival is slim you may not get it, when in normal times you would. The beds will have to go to those with the best chance of pulling through.

I dont see any alternative to lockdown in Liverpool and we have to hope other places dont go the same way.

Gold command has recommended most of nw goes into t3. Source bbc nw news headlines.

I've noted this before. But in Surrey, all schools are now encouraged to wear face masks in all communal areas. Decided by local council, for the local community. I think we are very lucky in Surrey.

Surrey is lucky as we're currently low.

But I'm in Surrey and no schools I know are even encouraging masks at all, I'd say it was closer to they won't object if someone chooses to wear them. The council also refused to lay on extra buses for the school buses as requested for social distancing, as the school buses were totally packed... they still are.
I don't think Surrey has behaved any differently from other councils.

[quote Coquohvan]@BigChocFrenzy quick google your PC used was terminated by the PO 8/14[/quote]
..
😂 Thanks for the info !

New thread already?!

We need a graph to chart number of threads per fortnight; I bet there's a correlation to the pandemic waves.

Thanks big!

On tier 3 v national circuit breaker

I’d be more for localised action where hospital situation is more severe.

German health minister, Jens Spahn, says he expects the vaccination program will start here in the first quarter of 2021

First will be high-risk groups, such as people who suffer from preexisting medical conditions, the elderly, health care workers and nursing home employees.

www.dw.com/en/germany-to-start-coronavirus-vaccination-before-april-2021-health-minister-says/a-55251114

A glassmaker here is boosting its capacity to produce 1 billion vials to contain whichever vaccine countries choose

www.dw.com/en/covid-19-vaccine-vial-coronavirus-germany/a-54975715

Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spreads more indoors at low humidity

Indian-German research team recommends at least 40 % humidity in public buildings
< and presumably good in private homes too - I've just checked and mine is 36% >

https://www.tropos.de/en/current-issues/press-releases/details/coronavirus-sars-cov-2-breitet-sich-bei-niedriger-luftfeuchtigkeit-in-innenraeumen-staerker-aus

I remember we used to recommend putting a bowl of water in a room, or hanging a damp towel over a radiator as a cheap home humidifier.

BigChoc is that with any of the vaccines that could be ready or do you have a German one ready then

American economy has suffered very badly www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53574953#:~:text=Coronavirus%3A%20US%20economy%20sees%20sharpest%20contraction%20in%20decades,-30%20July%202020&text=The%20US%20economy%20shrank%20at,spending%20cutbacks%20during%20the%20pandemic.&text=Reduced%20spending%20on%20services%20such%20as%20healthcare%20drove%20the%20fall.

In an election year what is said/forecast about the economy may not be entirely accurate and the Trump administration are noted for blatant lies.

Projections for the uk economy have to factor in the effect of Brexit. Not sure anyone can produce accurate forecasts at the moment for anywhere.

Local news in reporting on uni thing now.

715 cases in Herts last week : 453 are said to 'live elsewhere'.

Surrey isn’t really low, it’s only comparatively low.

Elmbridge has roughly the same 7 day per 100k rate that Liverpool had 3 weeks earlier:

Elmbridge (02 Oct-8 Oct) 148
Liverpool (11 Sept- 17 Sept) 145.4

[quote BigChocFrenzy]Richard@RP131 with UK new cases by specimen date overlaid with 9-day doubling
[/quote]
Obviously far too early to say anything definitive but by specimen date it looks as though there might be the start of a slight levelling off or at least slowing down of the rise (even excluding the lag period).

@MarshaBradyo

BigChoc is that with any of the vaccines that could be ready or do you have a German one ready then

... A German one

School where one of mine teaches is closing, staff and kids some with positives some isolating.

Is it working and ready to go? That’s a big deal

Being reported on twitter that the “gold command” meeting between Lancashire, GM and the government have agreed to move both into tier 3. Matt Hancock expected to announce it tomorrow in parliament - will be interesting (if true) to see what financial agreement they came to and what each region have decided to close. If it’s different from LCR it is not going to make for clear messaging...

Pfizer and Biopharmaceutical New Technologies (BioNTech Mainz, Germany) are jointly developing a COVID-19 vaccine.

Germany also agreed to buy the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine back in June. uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/astrazeneca-wins-coronavirus-vaccine-deal-with-germany-france-italy-and-the-netherlands-idUKKBN23K0HW

Those 2 are likely to be the first to release stage 3 trial efficacy data with Moderna also probably doing so before the end of the year.

How did you check your humidity @BigChocFrenzy?

West Midlands hospital bed use has increased a lot in the last few days. Admissions are not as up to date for some reason but West Mids needs to be upping compliance with the current measures or they are rapidly going into tier 3 too.

Useful health tips, cathy
like having the flu jab to avoid having the 2 viruses together, or near.