Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Probably a silly question but after reading up there ^ re blood clots I’m now a bit worried. I had a pulmonary embolism 10 years ago, does that make me more at risk of a bad outcome if I catch covid?

@wintertravel1980

I think the England numbers are still going up (incomplete data for Oct 12 and 13 is not looking great) but there might have been a slow down since Oct 5th.

Tim Spector estimates that R for England has fallen to 1.1. Good that it might be down - bad that it is over 1.

One place that seems to be going down is the City of Manchester. Trafford may be following but other GM areas are, unfortunately, still on the rise.

.... Official SAGE estimates issued today:

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Latest R number range for the UK1.3-1.5
Latest growth rate range for the UK+4% to +7%

English region figures:

Yes, Newcastle is definitely following the downward trend.

Re: Leeds - it had a bad day on Oct 12 (in the incomplete set - 510 cases reported so far and more may be added). Hopefully, the downward trajectory will continue.

London numbers were not great this week. I am wondering if we are also seeing some impact of student testing.

@BanditoShipman
Easier said than done but try not to panic. There's no harm in having a chat with your doctor to discuss any possible risks.

Are you on any medication? Anti blood clotting medication? I wonder whether that might help protect you?

Yes, I have seen the official R numbers but Tim Spector believes his projections are one week ahead.

SAGE are modelling their numbers based on triangulation of reported cases, hospital admissions and deaths so their estimates are more accurate but also more out of date.

London was always going to be badly hit. It's deja vu. Not much hope for any improvement there either. Heathrow airport is (even during the pandemic) one of the world's busiest airports. Thousands of international travellers are arriving everyday and going straight onto the busy public transport. No restrictions, no tests, no proper quarantine.

@SheepandCow
Valium is HIGHLY addictive. So is Xanax.
What is not so much is Valeriana, in its natural form, extracted from the root of valeriana officinalis plant.

Fun fact: this plan is also a cat attractant.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@SheepandCow
Valium is HIGHLY addictive. So is Xanax.
What is not so much is Valeriana, in its natural form, extracted from the root of valeriana officinalis plant.

Fun fact: this plan is also a cat attractant.[/quote]
So what if it's addictive?
What's more deadly - daily valium or extreme stress with the associated raised cortisol, obesity, inflammation, diabetes, hypertensive, cardiovascular problems?

Too pessimistic re London in my option no look at the figures suggest it is raising rapidly. The graph in the phe report puts London forth region in the U.K. and growth on a lower trajectory than the other higher regions.

Interesting as to why and assume it relates to working from home and possibly some immunity? But while London is increasing it is not increasing at the same rate as other areas and the “two weeks behind the north west” is a fallacy we are about where the north west was six weeks ago if you look at the latest phe report.

I accept logically London should be high but we are not in relation to the rest of the country and it’s wrong to suggest we are, we actually had the lowest predicted r rate in the country today at its lowest 1.1 - 1.4 nearly below one at the lowest end without the new measures!

It doesn’t make sense I agree there are a lot of people here! but it is wrong to suggest London is a big problem at the moment compared to the rest of the U.K.

I follow the Youtube channel of Dr John Campbell, and he is very analytical and presents facts in a balanced way. He presented some stats which indicate that the overall fatality rate is thought to be 0.3%. If this is true, it equates to 3,333 per 1 million people, so by looking at the deaths per 1M column on the Worldometer stats chart it is possible to gain an idea of how far the virus has spread through the population of each country (rather than just going by the number of infections, which are thought to be way less than the true figures).

Using this method, it seems that around 20% of the UK may have already been infected, with USA being in a similar position. Other poorer countries, such as Chile, Peru and Bolivia, seem to be much further along the road to herd immunity (I think a couple of these had deaths of around 1,000 per million, so perhaps they are around 30% infected). I realise this is all rough conjecture, but I will keep watching that column with interest. Maybe when/if the numbers for a country hit 2,200 per 1M that will indicate that they have gained herd immunity.

A vaccine would be great, obviously, but this is the way I'm trying to keep track of how widespead the virus really is, because we may acquire a large level of immunity before one is rolled out.

Just a random musing - many of us are pondering why there is a difference between the North and the South and people are positing social differences. Since it's a geographic divide, what if it's a geographic cause? Humidity, or temperature, or some other consideration? Geography is not my strong point.

I'm not negating factors like population density or deprivation, but could there be something about "The North" being ... well... northern, that is doing it?

I did wonder if weather made a difference we did have a great summer..whether die to behaviour (stayed outside because it was so nice weather) or if the virus spread was less due to the heat but yes I think the weather must have made a difference

Watch this space re London.

I like Dr John Campbell. He's very calm and measured. Haven't had much time to look at what he's saying recently. Has he covered Long Covid?

We can't rely on immunity. We're already seeing cases of reinfection.

Further to my post re death rates per 1M, Bolivia's rate is currently 717, but apparently it is thought that the true death number is twice that number. So, assuming that figure is nearer 1,400 per million, it indicates that perhaps nearly half of the population have been infected. On the other hand, the death rate will probably be much higher there, due to lack of medical care for the poor. So that probably throws my theory out of kilter, as far as very poor countries are concerned.

But on a data thread we cannot just decide London is bad “because it should be” it does need to have a bit of data behind it and why it isn’t currently could provide useful info re the virus.

I am not saying it shouldn’t be bad but I cannot see how in the current data we can say it is!

Anyone interested in the inequalities of health - for example in the relationship between obesity and deprivation - should read about the social determinants of health by Michael Marmot. Some extracts from the 2010 report here.

www.instituteofhealthequity.org/resources-reports/fair-society-healthy-lives-the-marmot-review

Also findings reported by ONS that ethnicity higher risk factor of Covid more related to where people live and what jobs they do.

In response to some previous posters querying the factors underlying why deprivation is a factor in many causes of ill-health - and looks like it is also a factor in Covid19- Marmot et al have done some major studies over the years and factors such as chronic stress, lack of control, lack of support, environment tends to be worse, lifestyle choices more limited, accumulation of stress/adverse events throughout a lifespan, all push up the risk factors so...

Just to break it down. Someone who is obese but otherwise in a fairly affluent set up, good life etc will have less risk than someone who is the same level of obesity but from a deprived set up and background.

It's nothing perhaps in the grand scheme of things, but every little helps and we have to start somewhere.

How about weekly veg box deliveries to places like food banks and refuges?

Those seemingly small things add up @SheepandCow it’s not a bad idea at all. Several localities I think have started to do this kind of thing - in my area there’s a great scheme where several businesses are contributing veg, fruit, food to community hubs for months now.

@SheepandCow Yes, he has discussed it, and interviewed people who have Long Covid.

@Qasd Yes, I think the weather is a factor, for so many reasons to do with behaviour, fresh air, ultra violet light, and the biggest factor of all - vitamin D levels. Generally, southern England gets more warm weather than the north, so southerners have more opportunity to top up their vit D levels during sunny weather. Also, there are large communities of BAME people living in many of the worst affected places in the Midlands and northern towns. There are many cultural reasons why some BAME people prefer to keep their skin covered (for example, many Philippinos dislike having tanned skin) but these reasons are never spoken of on the media. I'm white, and take Vit D supplements through autumn and winter. If I was black/brown, I would be taking a much larger dose, but the media seems to be pretty much silent on this point. The government also seems dismissive of the vital role of Vit D in fighting viral infections. Dr Campbell has bee discussing the importance of Vit D on his channel for months.

I truly believe the role of stress has been significantly underestimated for a very long time. Continues to be. I'm not talking acute trauma. I mean more the type of low level chronic stress that grinds you down. Short of giving everyone a better life - secure affordable housing, happy and healthy relationships, satisfying jobs - the best (at least short-term) solution is sedatives.
Valium and the like. What's worse - addiction to an otherwise relatively safe drug, or chronic wearing stress brought about by a life of drudery, misery, and daily battle for survival?

*drudgery

@IceCreamSummer20 Yes, all those factors are relevant too, I realise that Vit D is only one factor.

Many BAME people work in lower paid jobs, in high risk environments, such as factories, care homes and hospitals, or on public transport. They work long hours so get little chance to enjoy time in the sun. At the other end of the spectrum, there are many Asian doctors in the UK, who earn decent money and enjoy a good standard of living, but they have been on the front line during the pandemic.

Money affects health and life chances in so many ways, and a pandemic highlights this issue.

@SheepandCow there have been studies linking chronic stress and risk of ill health. And not the ‘high powered executive stress’ - the daily grind as you’ve pointed out. It is incredibly difficult to pin down as a ‘cause’ but some solid evidence on correlations.

Vitamin D seems very important with Covid-19 doesn’t it - so good points with the weather and also ethnicity too. Covid does certainly appear to be hitting those most deprived and most vulnerable the most. I haven’t seen many analysis of all the risk factors - apart from the medical ones (David Speigelhalter link) - and the ONS.