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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2020 09:38

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

  • SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
  • PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

  • PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu
OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
BanditoShipman · 17/10/2020 00:48

[quote SheepandCow]@BanditoShipman
Easier said than done but try not to panic. There's no harm in having a chat with your doctor to discuss any possible risks.

Are you on any medication? Anti blood clotting medication? I wonder whether that might help protect you?[/quote]
Thank you SheepandCow, I will call dr on Monday. Was on clexane for a year but not now 🙂

NeurotrashWarrior · 17/10/2020 07:21

Regarding Newcastle numbers easing; yes I think asymptomatic cases being picked up was really helpful, but we also had a rule that isn't in tier 2 or tier 3, until last Wednesday when tier 2 over ruled it.

Around the time students were returning/ starting uni, the rule of no mingling at all was brought in, anywhere.

While only advisory, and actually you could meet another for a SD walk in the park (I've only recently realised), everyone was so confused no one that I know did. In fact, I remember many of us (anecdotally, but speaking to colleagues and friends) felt we had to
Pretend it was like early lockdown, but also going to work. They strongly urged us not to use public transport if possible.

There was a lot of frustration and it was quite depressing so some will have broken it, but enough perhaps to have an effect. I remember snatching what we felt was an illegal conversation with a fellow mum friend in the supermarket, 3m apart.

Even tier 3 allows more socialisation than we thought you could have.

Restaurants were open but a few bars have closed as the impact was in a way worse. Many in the trade would reportedly prefer a circuit breaker.

sirfredfredgeorge · 17/10/2020 07:49

How about weekly veg box deliveries to places like food banks and refuges?

No, money, just money, actual support for poor, so far almost all the financial subsidy has gone to the wealthy. House prices propped up, mortgage interest rates cuts, secure jobs furloughed. A house owner was even allowed to take a break on their mortgage at borrow that money at maybe 2% over the next 20 years. Insanely cheap Government loans to private equity companies, so the extremely wealthy don't lose out.

Whereas a renter, just got told, "well we'll not let your landlord take possession for 6 months, you'll still owe them the full rent, but...", the zero hours contract person just got zero hours. Eventually access to 74 quid a week, or maybe a bit more if you're lucky.

A veg box doesn't prevent the rising inequality caused by covid.

I realise now why when people talk about "economy and covid" on the data thread I find people talking past each other - the data posted when people say the economy is important is always the GDP / national / equity economy, if the country will fall 5% or 10%. It's just not the relevant fact.

ceeveebee · 17/10/2020 08:50

So the new experimental dashboard seems to have removed the ability to download the spreadsheet which showed all the weekly cases by MSOA (previously you could download this and see all the data behind the map). Does anyone know whether this is available anywhere else?

sleepwhenidie · 17/10/2020 08:53

Chronic stress is without question hugely detrimental health wise but I’m not sure Valium and the like are a workable solution..just a little research on the opioid addiction crisis in the US would show you that.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 09:41

@Defenbaker

I follow the Youtube channel of Dr John Campbell, and he is very analytical and presents facts in a balanced way. He presented some stats which indicate that the overall fatality rate is thought to be 0.3%. If this is true, it equates to 3,333 per 1 million people, so by looking at the deaths per 1M column on the Worldometer stats chart it is possible to gain an idea of how far the virus has spread through the population of each country (rather than just going by the number of infections, which are thought to be way less than the true figures).

Using this method, it seems that around 20% of the UK may have already been infected, with USA being in a similar position. Other poorer countries, such as Chile, Peru and Bolivia, seem to be much further along the road to herd immunity (I think a couple of these had deaths of around 1,000 per million, so perhaps they are around 30% infected). I realise this is all rough conjecture, but I will keep watching that column with interest. Maybe when/if the numbers for a country hit 2,200 per 1M that will indicate that they have gained herd immunity.

A vaccine would be great, obviously, but this is the way I'm trying to keep track of how widespead the virus really is, because we may acquire a large level of immunity before one is rolled out.

..... There are differing estimates of IFR, mostly much higher than 0.3 for the 1st wave, so I wouldn't take just one person's opinion as fact

The best study I have seen so far exxplains that the apparent wide variation in IFR between countries is because of its age dependence
So countries with v few elderly people and / or who have protected the elderly will have a lower IFR than those who don't

That's a major reason why the death rate despite the rising cases has been low over the last few months in Europe:
the much lower age of infection compared to summer

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 09:45

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6.full.pdf

While the NYC data indicate an IFR of about 1%,
seroprevalence estimates from other locations have yielded a wide array of IFR estimates,
ranging from about 0·6% in Geneva to levels exceeding 2% in northern Italy.
.....
We find that differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 explain about 90% of the geographical variation in population IFR.
......
These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults,

for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident
and
far more dangerous than seasonal influenza.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 09:49

Maybe Campbell said the IFR = 0.3 for the under 60s, which is very plausible,
but it seems low for a typical Western population with a substantial % aged 60+
e.g. in the UK > 20%

OP posts:
herecomesthsun · 17/10/2020 09:50

@BigChocFrenzy

very nice, thank you

Was it you who did a similar analysis of lightning strikes Grin?

Augustbreeze · 17/10/2020 09:54

If stress produces ill health, then surely having to deal with racism is another contributory factor to greater susceptibility in BAME communities? Not just any major /violent incidents, but the daily barriers and slights.

Don't know if there is any data on this, but am just making a common sense observation.

Augustbreeze · 17/10/2020 09:55

Sorry, common sense observation = a call for data!

Prokupatuscrakedatus · 17/10/2020 10:01

On the other hand being close to other humans in a supportive community reduces stress.
So social distancing for the already stressed might - in the long run - not be that good an idea from an immune system point of view.

Eyewhisker · 17/10/2020 10:12

The BBC have a good graph here on IFR. Really shows that no risk to under 45s and very stark post-75
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54570373

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 10:15

SD for thr elderly in particular can cause them to rapidly deteriorate

and in a care home, they don't have the choice to risk it and go out

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 10:24

[quote Eyewhisker]The BBC have a good graph here on IFR. Really shows that no risk to under 45s and very stark post-75
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54570373[/quote]
...
That article says
"It is estimated that 1% to 3% of peoplee_ who catch the virus require hospital treatment."

That presumably includes those milder and asymptomatic cases who are never tested,
because German stats, even now with the average infection age mid-30s, are 5%
In the 1st wave it was up to 20%

The comparatively high need for hospitalisation, compared to e.g. flu, is a major cause of all these measures governments are taking:

IFR rises drastically for the middle-aged and even the young, if there are no hospital beds, health rationing

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 10:25

German stats for hospitalisation

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/Oktt_2020/2020-10-13-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 10:34

Their calculated population IFR of 0.5% is in the range of most others (without a political agenda !) for the current situation

When it was a "novel" virus in the 1st wave, IFR was calculated to be higher in most studies,
e.g. of NYC and N Italy
which is why we still sometimes see higher IFR values quoted, but that was the past situation.

"The number of people that die after catching the virus, known as the infection fatality rate, is about 0.5%.

Or one death in every 200 people infected.

That is five to 25 times more deadly than a seasonal flu infection, despite ongoing myths that Covid is just like flu.
Influenza kills between 0.02% and 0.1% of people who are infected.

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RedToothBrush · 17/10/2020 10:46

@sirfredfredgeorge

How about weekly veg box deliveries to places like food banks and refuges?

No, money, just money, actual support for poor, so far almost all the financial subsidy has gone to the wealthy. House prices propped up, mortgage interest rates cuts, secure jobs furloughed. A house owner was even allowed to take a break on their mortgage at borrow that money at maybe 2% over the next 20 years. Insanely cheap Government loans to private equity companies, so the extremely wealthy don't lose out.

Whereas a renter, just got told, "well we'll not let your landlord take possession for 6 months, you'll still owe them the full rent, but...", the zero hours contract person just got zero hours. Eventually access to 74 quid a week, or maybe a bit more if you're lucky.

A veg box doesn't prevent the rising inequality caused by covid.

I realise now why when people talk about "economy and covid" on the data thread I find people talking past each other - the data posted when people say the economy is important is always the GDP / national / equity economy, if the country will fall 5% or 10%. It's just not the relevant fact.

I think this is very relevant. I thought yesterday's press conference against Manchester was all about smearing the city and making out it was unreasonable. Johnson offer of financial assistance for closed business looks on the surface for t3 to match the furlough scheme. But it doesn't. It only helps people in certain businesses directly. What it doesn't do is help those in connecting businesses who are left high and dry with nothing. Nor does Johnson address the council financial crisis which is looming. The Greater Manchester Councils were struggling before covid. They were promised money by the government but reneged on it, leaving these councils high and dry and THEN the local lockdowns started. So god knows what state they are in now. That means even services such as social care and child welfare which are the very last to be cut are in danger. There really is that little left. (Worth pointing out here Greater Manchester has a significant stake in Manchester Airport and they generate a lot of income from that).

It was the slight of hand with the 80% figure which has really got to me. Its presentation of numbers in a misleading way.

I just felt Johnson wasn't pitching to Manchester citizens at all. People in Greater Manchester will be well aware of how friends and family are up shit creek and will be seeing notices going up saying places are permanently closed. Even those in the wealthy bits in insulated jobs will be aware of it to some degree. When you have Tory MPs on the same side as the Labour City Leadership it is a big clue as to a problem. Its only older pensioners who perhaps aren't in social circles with people of working age that can escape what they see happening around them.

It definitely felt like it was pitched past Greater Manchester and more at those in areas so far more unaffected around Manchester and more precisely at those in the Home Counties who haven't got a clue whats going on and feeds into their prejudices about the north.

I am torn between thinking its born of an outright contempt for those who are poor or a complete blindness for the lives of those who are poor. I am inclined to lean towards the latter only because the government and senior individuals in it, are so incompetent and out of touch when it comes to practical reality and supply chains that they are incapable of understanding concepts such as people not having 'other money' or a means to get another job because they cannot afford the bus fare or they haven't got a nanny to pick the kids up from school. Im not sure thats any better than malicious contempt for the poor.

I will urge people to consider going forward the details on stuff like this and who they are pitched at because i do think it significant.

Its relevant to data because seriously undermined public trust in government will start to have an effect on public engagement with whats happening. Thats stuff like using track and trace and complying with rules. Thats everything from isolation to where gyms open illegally etc. We know poverty doesn't just affect your risk factor due to your health. It affects you due to your job or lack of financial ability to isolate. That affects R rates etc etc. Its not a coincidence that the ward of Knowsley Village is tracking at more than 1000 cases per 100,000 atm.

I did think it interesting that the Telegraph today said that the government backed off t3 for Manchester after a telephone call with the head of Greater Manchester police who said if the council were not fully onboard it would make it impossible to enforce t3 restrictions.

I also note the story which was headlining the Manchester Evening News online for much of the day yesterday. There has been some graffiti in piccadily gardens in the centre of the city which states that manchester is not a petri-dish. The response from councillors was that they understood the sentiment and the angee behind it and that the graffiti would remain in place for some days.

I do grow deeply uncomfortable about how the government is deliberately stoking divisions and how local lockdowns are causing tensions which im not sure everyone outside realises.

In Warrington they have announced they will have police 'monitoring the border areas' and they will patrol the town centre for people coming in from outside this weekend. I cant help feel uncomfortable with it. There is no legal reason that people from t3 cant leave the area. Its only guidance, so what legal basis do cheshire police have to even speak to anyone they think is from out of town. Is this going to mean hassle or prejudices towards anyone with the wrong accent? I find it worrying.

I really don't like the way this is developing and the complete lack of interest in the data that connects poverty and deprivation with higher rates of covid and higher risks of death. This needs to be more seriously considered.

Financial issues are hugely relevant to this, because if you increase poverty and deprivation as part of trying to control the spread of the virus, you risk making the problem worse not better. And im not entirely sure how much this is being considered as its beyond the remit of sage, even in terms of behavioural science because they cant predict the degree to which the government will deliberately facilitate and engage in social division though their policy making and rhetoric.

We have the prospect of food price hikes and supply chain shock upcoming in a few weeks too.

I find myself feeling quite scared not because of the virus, but because of what widespread restrictions will do to local communities and how desperate people will become. I live in an area which is a commuter area - people move about a lot here and its close to numerous different councils. Dh and I have worked in no less than 9 in the years we've lived the area we do. We've had to get our heads around the rules in 5 different areas to continue living under restrictions since August. The new tier system was supposed to make it easier but i can't see that being the case. Theres already two versions of t3. Dh has been training in Wales too in the last 2 months, so thats another layer of complications. Am i going to start being careful where i go, not simply because of the virus but will i be hassled by police or locals for not being in the right place (even if i have a legitimate reason to be there)?

This is something that has crept in over 2 months. It was a bit of joke when Manchester was first put under restrictions in my circle of friends. Now its starting to take a turn i find much darker and more sinister. Saying local lockdowns are better really neglects all of this and social cohesion. I doubt this is being monitored or measured in any kind if data format, but its something i think exists beyond anecdotes. There is a rising anger happening in the north west and i find it unnerving.

I am really starting to despair over what is being overlooked, neglected and ignored in terms of what we know in favour of stuff like this which is not reducing problems but increasing them.

Perhaps this post isnt in the spirit of this thread as much as every poster would like, but i have a growing sense of how important the financial impact is and feel it needs to be stated in the context of where data driven science is leading us and where its limits lie due to the politics playing in here.

I hope people do understand why i feel the need to make it.

EducatingArti · 17/10/2020 10:52

Redtoothbrush.
You have expressed with great eloquence many of the things I have been thinking and feeling. Thank you.

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2020 11:03

Or to put it another way, where is the data for the places with the highest rising levels of benefit claims?

Where are the maps showing the places where most people were furloughed?

How can we measure the number of people who didn't get financial support because they are self employed?

IloveJKRowling · 17/10/2020 11:05

Great post @RedToothBrush

I think your analysis is perceptive and insightful and it's important to consider rising inequalities as it will directly impact on the trustworthiness of data sources.

The government still hasn't, for example, got on top of the need to cover people financially if they're isolating. If testing and results takes too long (which it still does), and a positive test means 10 days without proper financial support (that is easy and straightforward to access), there is no hope that people that are only mildly ill will do it rather than pay their rent or feed their children - which would mean a significant underreporting of cases.

Private landlords are still racking up huge debts for renters - they've been given mortgage holidays but renters are expected to pay it ALL back at some point - even if their source of income has reduced or disappeared - it's completely unequal in favour of the richest. It's difficult to ask people to be community spirited when they feel they are being cast aside by the community.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53860154

"Government guidance says that tenants should continue to pay their rent where possible, and that agreed rent levels remain legally due. If a tenant currently has difficulty paying rent, the government says they should work out a payment scheme with their landlords."

I'm constantly wondering how much the poorest in our society will take before there is widespread civil unrest. If food prices go up and the supply chain is affected by Brexit on top of a surge in coronavirus, I very much fear we'll get to that point.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 11:07

That's a worrying analysis, red
but analysis is very much in the spirit of the thread and it isn't being said elsewhere

Unfortunately, this government has been playing politics all along with this crisis,
in taking the opportunity to appoint cronies to top jobs, attack mayors like Burnham for doing their job instead of listening to them

Leading epidemiologists keep stressing the importance of transparency & honesty for the authorities in any country, the importance of keeping public trust

Back in March-April, there was huge public support, rallying round the leaders, in most countries around the world.
Unfortunately, some governments, like this one, have squandered that priceless good will and btrayued the public trust

Without that trust, even the recommended public health measures don't work
and attempts to enforce them can just continue a spiral of public disengagement and anger in those areas that are not the "favoured" ones

As a first step back from the brink, the govt need to put in the money to fill the black hole in Manchester council finances
listen to what the local leaders, Labour Mayor & Tory & Labour MPs, say their communities need and would respond to

OP posts:
NeurotrashWarrior · 17/10/2020 11:12

Well said Red

but because of what widespread restrictions will do to local communities and how desperate people will become.

Especially this.

Re stress; DV is a considerable issue among many poorer communities in the NE, of white and BAME backgrounds. I imagine so also in the NW.

It's also cyclical as stress increases DV and the impact of daily coercive control or threat of violence impacts stress.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 11:15

People aren't stupid and can balance a 0.5% or much less (at their age) risk of death, the risk of Long Covid
vs the 100% certainty of financial ruin and horrendous consequences to them lasting many years

Those on low incomes who barelt have anything left over in normal times don't have luzuries to cut, don't have the mc safety net of savings to fall back on

Renters fear being dumped in emergency shared accommodation, with their families sharing kitchens & bathrooms with strangers

There is much talk about the young, but someone of 50+ who loses their SE / small business and their life savings is probably fucked for the rest of their lives, with a miserable retirement in poverty to look forward to

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 11:20

NW

(from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats) 7-day rolling averages

. New cases by specimen date
. Deaths (by date of death)

Increase in cases may be tailing off before the lag, bit we need a few more days data
Deaths would take another week or so to show this, if indeed it is a genuine trend

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25
OP posts: