Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@Ontopofthesunset

Although apparently even in eg Sweden, though population density is much lower, about 75% of the country is uninhabited (dense forest etc) so apparently the actual difference isn't always as stark as it seems, since all the Swedes are pretty much living in 25% of the territory. So population density isn't always as clear cut as the topline data.

... The land area of most countries is uninhabited

Population density is a rough & ready measure, not something you'd put in an equation,
but it is a good guide

Sweden's population density is ~ 1/12 that of the UK's,
23 people / km2
vs
280 / km2

Deaths per million look related to population density

deaths per million / country / pop density

51 Norway 16
63 Finland 16
109 Denmark 123

but no lockdown - made a huge difference
585 Sweden 23

I think 84% of Sweden’s population live in cities, a couple of percent higher than the UK.

The number of cities and distance between them is very different in the 2 countries

Sweden has the highest number of single person households without children in Europe, over 50%

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170905-1

why Sweden's death rate / million is 5-12 x its Scandi / Nordic neighbours ....

There are many attempts to explain away this inconvenient statistic,
but the very obvious difference - and the dominant factor - is lockdown in the 1st wave

Total Deaths / million population

The contrast Sweden vs other Scandi / Nordic countries is astonishing

its death rate is nearly that of the UK, with 12 x the population density, far more cities & big towns, much closer together

and Sweden has had efficient and honest government, no cronyism, a professional public health authority

very high public trust in the authorities and compliance with the rules

Neuro - the links between deprivation and obesity are well studied and reported, see this from RCPCH.

“Deprivation and obesity. There is also a strong relationship between deprivation and overweight/obesity prevalence. In 2015/2016, 40% of children in England’s most deprived areas were overweight or obese, compared to 27% in the most affluent areas.

As deprivation increases the number of children at a healthy weight decreases, and the number of children measured as overweight or obese increases. The most recent data show that overweight and obesity prevalence for children living in the most deprived areas is greater than it is for those living in the least deprived areas: in England, 25.8% compared to 18.0%; in Scotland, 25.1% compared to 17.1%; and in Wales, 28.5% compared to 22.2%. This pattern is in contrast to the early 1970s where obesity prevalence was greater in children from the most affluent areas than in the most deprived”

Thanks troo, it's almost one of those things you don't need data for it's so noticeable.

I was quite unnerved when I saw the children at my son's school. So slim. They also were all Doing handstands. I've never actually seen the children in the schools I've taught in do that. (Though for many years latterly it's been sen.)

An OT once said that since new schools had been build that were all on the flat for accessibility, there had been a significant drop in children's hip flex skills. Lack of climbing/ going up steps.

Certainly in an old Victorian school I was in once you lost several lbs every September from running up and down big flights of stairs.

Stockholm 4279 people per km2
London 5710 people per km2

Quite different

Stockholm population is < 1 million
London is 9 million

England especially has so many cities and big town close together
So easy to spread infection from place to place

English regions, positivies by specimen date
(charts Richard@RP131 UK)

NW
NE
Yorkshire & Humber

(Richard@RP131 UK)

UK by specimen date overlaid with 9 day doubling, maybe a slowdown recentl?

(Richard@RP131 UK)

English regions by specimen date and 9-day doubling

NW doubling looks slower than 9 days
NE and Yorshire & Humber look closer, but still slower than 9 days

@ancientgran

It seems like we need to get quicker results to the 300k people who are having them daily at the moment. I wonder how long tests are taking to come back, one of mine tested almost 48 hrs ago but no result yet.

If you look at Richard’s tweets he has a very cool animated chart that attributes cases by specimen date.

twitter.com/rp131/status/1317123831941763073?s=21

London

(charts from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

1. London borough new cases / 100,000 Newest data (purple column) = 7-13 October. .....
2. London cases by specimen date deaths (by date of death) and patients in hospital.

Caes can't be meaningfully compared to 1st wave, but hospitalisations and deaths can

That’s interesting BCF - did you make the graph? I agree on your point re cases/admissions/deaths...would be good to see hospitalisations and deaths without the cases as deaths look so small on there it’s hard to grasp the comparison now to then.

Wow...Camden, where I am, has really jumped up after staying relatively low for ages

@sleepwhenidie

That’s interesting BCF - did you make the graph? I agree on your point re cases/admissions/deaths...would be good to see hospitalisations and deaths without the cases as deaths look so small on there it’s hard to grasp the comparison now to then.

.... As I posted, charts are from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

They also have charts for London just showing

1. hospitalisations
2. patients in ventilation beds

and these are the daily London admissions:

@Heartyhooker

I'd be interested in studies of cortisol levels across socio economic classes as it's the chronic stress hormone. It also promotes formation of abdominal and visceral fat which is metabolically active. I know shift workers have higher levels .

Still catching up on the thread so haven't seen replies to this.

It's something I feel quite strongly about. I think the role of stress is consistently overlooked, downplayed, and dismissed.

Stress is linked to another high Covid risk - hypertension.

People, particularly those living in deprivation where daily life can be a grinding struggle, need some form of comfort. We're currently in a semi Brave New World - but without the soma.

I think it's no coincidence obesity rates have increased since smoking and valium use has fallen.

Would old fashioned sedatives help? Modern antidepressants, which are now known to also be addictive, are linked to weight gain. Valium and similar aren't.

[quote BigChocFrenzy](Richard@RP131 UK)

UK by specimen date overlaid with 9 day doubling, maybe a slowdown recentl?[/quote]
Yes, still looking pretty flat from 5th October onwards (ignoring the lag period). Be interesting to see how things go over the next few days and whether it's a trend or a blip.

@Coquohvan

Did I hear that the Gov is paying now 80% of salary to those who are forced to close in T3? I heard Gordon Brown on BBC1 this morning saying that Rushi needs to reconsider his help and give 80% to these workers. It was unfair to people now losing work again compared to March lockdown payments.

I really feel for people who got made redundant or became too ill to work before the pandemic. Apparently it's just fine for them to struggle on £74 a week.

I heard London, unlike the NW, hasn't been given a support package? I think Sadiq Khan is trying to get something in place.

I think the England numbers are still going up (incomplete data for Oct 12 and 13 is not looking great) but there might have been a slow down since Oct 5th.

Tim Spector estimates that R for England has fallen to 1.1. Good that it might be down - bad that it is over 1.

One place that seems to be going down is the City of Manchester. Trafford may be following but other GM areas are, unfortunately, still on the rise.

@wintertravel1980

I think the England numbers are still going up (incomplete data for Oct 12 and 13 is not looking great) but there might have been a slow down since Oct 5th.

Tim Spector estimates that R for England has fallen to 1.1. Good that it might be down - bad that it is over 1.

One place that seems to be going down is the City of Manchester. Trafford may be following but other GM areas are, unfortunately, still on the rise.

If you look at most of the uni cities they're going down. It may be a function of widespread testing of asymptomatic students in the early days. Leeds and Newcastle are the same.