Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@sleepwhenidie

Just been looking at Worldometers' projections for various countries and by my workings the deaths per million population by 1st Feb 2021 for the following different countries are

France: 1308
Spain: 1148
UK: 2014
USA: 1178

Any ideas about why the UK projections would be so much higher than the other 3 when currently the rates don't seem so substantially different (USA on 673, UK 659, France 507, Span 708)? Hoping my maths has gone wrong somewhere ?

.... BJ fuckup factor ?

I would love to understand what it is about being overweight that makes people more likely to become very ill with Covid. It seems that even those without a BMI which is sufficiently high to be linked to breathing issues or diabetes are affected.

I've also just realised I've eaten a lot of chocolate whilst catching up with this thread .

Modelling of the future has a wide number of scenarios because of possible events, government decisions, compliance etc

Even / especially modelling by public health authorities for their own country has this wide range

I would be wary of any mass modelling of many different countries, as they may not include the latest info about ICU beds, staff etc

Deprivation and being male being key factors too with being overweight. Strong evidence from studies such as Marmot in the past (not about Covid) which revealed that it wasn’t just ‘lifestyle’ factors that predisposed people to suffering cardiac problems - there was something about being deprived in itself also. Inequality is a risk factor in itself. So possibly being overweight is not just a risk factor in itself but also reveals inequality. Being male is a very stark difference also.

@BigChoc I guess we shouldn't underestimate BJ . I'd have thought that the obesity/age factors would already be 'built in' to figures to date though? I guess we just have to hope that the forecasts are wrong....

@Chaotic45

I would love to understand what it is about being overweight that makes people more likely to become very ill with Covid. It seems that even those without a BMI which is sufficiently high to be linked to breathing issues or diabetes are affected.

I've also just realised I've eaten a lot of chocolate whilst catching up with this thread .

.... Being overweight increases the likelihood of inflammation, impaired immune system, blood clotting disorder

• all significant risk factors for Covid

It also increases the likelihood of that person having T2, another high risk factor

In serious illness, when the lungs are under pressure, the extra fat in the upper body can add to breathing difficulties

Individuals with obesity and COVID‐19: A global perspective on the epidemiology and biological relationships

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/obr.13128

@RedToothBrush thanks for clarifying, I heard it was for business closer employees wasn’t sure I hear the % correct.
That is the correct thing to do IMO, wonder if Rushi heard Gordon too.

Another JVT supporter. He went up in my estimation when ask about the DC episode, replied that the rules are for everyone and to be obeyed by everyone. He’s his own man 👍

That obesity study above found:

Those with obesity who contracted SARS-CoV-2 were:

113% more likely than people of healthy weight to be hospitalised
74% more likely to be admitted to ICU
48% more likely to die.

I'd be interested in studies of cortisol levels across socio economic classes as it's the chronic stress hormone. It also promotes formation of abdominal and visceral fat which is metabolically active. I know shift workers have higher levels .

I wonder if shift work is a risk factor in itself

Shift work messes with your body so badly, biologically we really aren't designed to be nocturnal.

@Heartyhooker

I'd be interested in studies of cortisol levels across socio economic classes as it's the chronic stress hormone. It also promotes formation of abdominal and visceral fat which is metabolically active. I know shift workers have higher levels .

A quick google: (just read the abstracts though)

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277953603003472

www.pnas.org/content/106/34/14716/

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306453009003096

@sleepwhenidie

Shift work messes with your body so badly, biologically we really aren't designed to be nocturnal.

I beg to differ.... :)

Examples of the negative health effects of night shifts include suppression of the immune system, disruption of metabolism, increased risk of diabetes and obesity, lack of vitamin D (!), gastro problems, increased likelihood of depression...the list goes on!

In Scandinavia shift workers have an employer paid medical check up every year. As a night shift worker we have higher cortisol levels and cancer risks. Believe me as soon as my children are a little older I will be back on days. The thing is although there is quite a lot of research it's not widely known and only certain organisations have procedures in place, i.e. NHS

@TheSunIsStillShining thanks for the link. I would think lack of control is a big factor as it feeds into health behaviours. I can't find the link now but the blogger North and South writes very well about food poverty and why Jamie talks bollocks, trying new things is not going to happen if you can't afford to provide alternative food if the kids don't like it and sometimes you have to choose between having the oven on for an hour or drying the school uniform.

As a Northerner I also wonder how many of the older men have existing disabilities from working in the now defunct heavy industries. An awful lot of miners were on the scrap heap in their forties after the strikes and will be mid eighties now

Anecdata but I've always noted in schools that I've taught which have a lot of pupil premium children / children in low socio economic areas, obesity is v high in both children and parents. Much less so in more well off areas.

@sleepwhenidie

I haven’t checked this but I have long wondered what the impact of population density on virus spread/risk is. Certainly all those European countries have lower population/square mile than U.K. and I should think same is true for US

Common sense says high density areas facilitate faster/easier virus spread. But I’ve yet to see a granular analysis. I’ve been meaning to do a deep dive myself but haven’t got round to it yet - so I can’t offer any conclusions. But I suspect that is at play I think those projections. More people in smaller area in U.K.

An awful lot of miners were on the scrap heap in their forties after the strikes and will be mid eighties now

Unlikely that will apply to very many, the life expectancy at 65 of such individuals would have been low 70's at best. (Most recent stats for such manual workers is 7 years less at 65 than highest classified workers, and life expectancy has been steadily growing, in fact they also would have been turning 65 at the peak of the inequality (may well have been part of the reason for the inequality)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/trendinlifeexpectancyatbirthandatage65bysocioeconomicpositionbasedonthenationalstatisticssocioeconomicclassificationenglandandwales/2015-10-21

Interesting commentary about the behind scenes politics between downing street and SAGE (sorry if it's already been posted).

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/16/scientists-call-to-arms-went-unheeded-how-the-relationship-with-no-10-broke-down

Certainly all those European countries have lower population/square mile than U.K. and I should think same is true for US

It's a difficult one to compare, as it's not really country density that matters, it's urban density and how urbanized you are. So London is not a very dense city at all, looks to be about a third of new York, Paris or the Belgian cities. You'd imagine that was significanty different, so whilst France is much less dense than England, the difference in the cities would presumably have more impact on transmission if population density is so important.

Although apparently even in eg Sweden, though population density is much lower, about 75% of the country is uninhabited (dense forest etc) so apparently the actual difference isn't always as stark as it seems, since all the Swedes are pretty much living in 25% of the territory. So population density isn't always as clear cut as the topline data.

[quote littleowl1]@sleepwhenidie

I haven’t checked this but I have long wondered what the impact of population density on virus spread/risk is. Certainly all those European countries have lower population/square mile than U.K. and I should think same is true for US

Common sense says high density areas facilitate faster/easier virus spread. But I’ve yet to see a granular analysis. I’ve been meaning to do a deep dive myself but haven’t got round to it yet - so I can’t offer any conclusions. But I suspect that is at play I think those projections. More people in smaller area in U.K.[/quote]
...
Population density is v important

The low population density of Scandi / Nordic countries, as well as high % of single person households especially in Sweden,
acts as an SD measure

Belgium has the highest population density in Europe (excluding minnows) and the highest deaths / million,
even if we look at excess deaths (since they officially count deaths where Covid is merely suspected, not confirmed)

ONS reports showed 5 x death rate in highly urban areas to sparsely populated villages & hamlets
That's because of the number of cases, not that IFR has changed so radically

Yes Stockholm is a similar density and size as glasgow