Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

According to the ICNARC it was 79.9% of patients size September 1st ( in the figures up to the end of August is was 73.7%)

"We love a little Jon Van Tam" 🤣🤣

I love the fan song, coffee !

The first column is the more recent data since September 1st

There are BMI data and a chart here (from most recent ICNARC) showing BMI distribution of Covid-19 ICU patients and a comparison with the general population.
mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1314583894407221248

Italy reports more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase on record

• New cases: 10,010
• Positivity: 6.6% (+1.2)
• In hospital: 6,178 (+382)
• ICU: 638 (+52)
• Deaths: +55

As of 2019, with 27.8%, UK is #2 in the European obesity stakes (EU+UK),
behind #1, Malta

Even the country with the lowest amount of obesity, Denmark, has 19.7%

www.statista.com/chart/20057/obesity-rates-eu/

On the face of it, it looks like obesity is a risk but we cannot confirm it until we have got the age/BMI distribution of the ICU population.

We know that age is by far the most important driver of COVID risk and, on average, BMI increases with age. As a result, the higher proportion of overweight patients in ICU may be explained by the fact that they are older (60 years in ICU vs 40 years for the UK population).

I do wonder what percentage of people in the UK are in the overweight category and above. It must be quite high

It's even less relevant than that, because older people are so much more likely to be overweight or obese than young people, and men more likely than women, and northern (where the majority of current cases are) more likely than southern, and deprived more likely than less deprived.

For all men 55-75 year old the percentage who were overweight was close to 80%, add in deprivation then you're over the 80% that were in ICU - women will be slightly lower though, and the older groups lower still (due to survivor bias mostly btw, not 'cos people lose weight)

I've really struggled to see how obesity can be controlled for as a risk rather than simply correlational when it comes with so many other issues and is so prevalent.

@cathyandclare and very stark difference - even more so in this ‘wave’ between the richer and poorer.
1st September - least deprived 10.6%. Up to 31st August - 14.3%
1st September - more deprived 38.5%. Up to 31st August - 26%

The ICNARC report is here:

www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

Yes, age is absolutely dominant
(but ECV risk level has to be defined individually by a doctor)

According to Spiegelhalter, risk doubles ~ every 6 years
and risk multiplies x ~ 8 every 20 years

e.g. a 50-year-old has ~ 8 x the risk of a 30-year-old
a 63-year-old has ~ 64 x the risk of a 23-year-old

Risk only seems to increase for the obese, BMI > 30 and significantly more for BMI 35+, BMI 40+
(from Alama and other sources)

I wonder whether it is older age, followed by sex (male more than female), followed by level of deprivation (most deprived), followed by obesity that are the order of risk factors?

@Frazzled2207

Just seen a tweet that says that 80% of Covid patients in ICU are overweight, obese or morbidly obese. I’m surprised there isn’t more said about that and makes the whole closing gyms thing daft. It also makes an interesting point that this will be why some countries have so many less ICU admissions. In japan for example (and I would imagine many European countries) far less people than in the UK are overweight.

66% of the population is in that category so whilst it is higher in the icu, it is not as much higher as you would imagine. Also I imagine the proportion in that category who are older is more then 67%

Examination of deaths in Germany show that

men are ~2.5 x more likely to die than women

(after weighting for the increasingly higher % women in the 70+ population)

Just been looking at Worldometers' projections for various countries and by my workings the deaths per million population by 1st Feb 2021 for the following different countries are

France: 1308
Spain: 1148
UK: 2014
USA: 1178

Any ideas about why the UK projections would be so much higher than the other 3 when currently the rates don't seem so substantially different (USA on 673, UK 659, France 507, Span 708)? Hoping my maths has gone wrong somewhere ?

We surely aren't that much more obese than all the other countries to make so much of a difference?!

Average age in ICU is ~60

% overweight at 60 is > % in the general population

..... anyone have stats for 60+ ?

Some of these more recent factors are probably partly due to the North South divide in cases at the moment. The increased % (38%) of hospitalizations in the most deprived category after 1st September compared to 26% in the run up to this.

@BigChocFrenzy

Average age in ICU is ~60

% overweight at 60 is > % in the general population

..... anyone have stats for 60+ ?

Couldn't find specifically at 60 - but it's 73% of 55-64 year olds

I saw reported in the Guardian that 75% of over 65s are overweight but that was from 5 years ago. Obesity stats from House of Commons Library in picture from 2019

That seems disproportionately high Sleep

@sleepwhenidie

We surely aren't that much more obese than all the other countries to make so much of a difference?!

.... From link I posted upthread, highest & lowest in EU+UK are 28.7% and 19.5% respectively

So highest has nearly 50% more obesity than lowest

however, Germany is one of the most obese coutnries, not far behind the Uk

AND
more importantly
the UK has a lower mean age - due mostly to immigration - than most W European countries:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
42 France
41 Sweden
40 UK
38 Ireland

Stats are here:
digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet-england-2019/part-3-adult-obesity

As I said above, 55-75 Male is ~77% lower in female for overweight, obesity is over 30% in both male and female in the group.

The North East and Yorkshire are significantly higher than the average, North West about the average - London much lower.

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2018/summary

Has obesity stats by deprivation, which are ~20% in least deprived, ~35% in most deprived, not found definitive data on overweight by deprivation, but commentary says it follows the obesity pattern.

76% of over 65s (overweight or obese). 73% of over 55s