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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2020 09:38

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

  • SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
  • PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

  • PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu
OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
Wilma55 · 16/10/2020 16:22

136 deaths

ancientgran · 16/10/2020 16:23

It seems like we need to get quicker results to the 300k people who are having them daily at the moment. I wonder how long tests are taking to come back, one of mine tested almost 48 hrs ago but no result yet.

IceCreamSummer20 · 16/10/2020 16:24

@cathyandclare

Mention of ventilation- that's good.
Hallelujah! I feel like I’ve been banging on about that. As I’m sure many others have, like a broken record. Fantastic.
Frazzled2207 · 16/10/2020 16:24

@ancientgran
I had a test on Tuesday am and got the results last night which I thought was fairly rubbish

lurker101 · 16/10/2020 16:26

@ancientgran it’s varying a lot by area and type - I tested last Monday lunchtime at a London walk in, got results 50hrs later, sister tested at stansted airport drive in on Wednesday got results about 24 hours later. Friend tested in NI got results about 12 hrs later.

MarshaBradyo · 16/10/2020 16:26

@Frazzled2207

i do like Patrick Vallance
Me too. He’s calm and collected
ancientgran · 16/10/2020 16:26

Can't answer a question, you'd think he'd know about seeing children when you are the NRP.

ancientgran · 16/10/2020 16:27

Thanks frazzled and lurker, hopefully not long now.

ancientgran · 16/10/2020 16:28

I like JVT, well maybe not like him he scares me a bit, but I trust him.

Heartyhooker · 16/10/2020 16:29

're care homes. We are in a regime of weekly testing for staff and monthly for client ( were possible). We are also getting results back within 48 hrs were I work. This along with PPE and social distancing where possible are only adding to the joy of my job at present. I appreciate the measures are necessary

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2020 16:31

From two days ago:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/operation-moonshot-salford-trial-refocus-19105241
Has Operation Moonshot already crash landed? Salford is told to 'refocus' regular rapid test trial
The mass testing pilot will now prioritise resources to 'prevent and manage outbreaks'

The pilot, which promised a new saliva-based test for all Salford residents on a weekly basis, will now prioritise resources to 'prevent and manage outbreaks'.

The target could soon be to test 1,000 people a day, Salford council has said.

This comes after it was revealed that Salford was still 'quite a way off' testing 200,000 people a week, raising questions over the feasibility of mass testing.

The local authority has now been asked to focus on testing those in 'high-risk' environments with regular testing offered in some high-density housing areas.

and

The city was selected for a new, 'community-wide' trial of saliva-based testing in September, starting with up to 250 tests a day for selected participants.

At the time, the government said this would later be 'scaled to the whole area'.

Since then, Salford council and its NHS partners have been working with volunteers providing saliva samples for weekly tests.

But two weeks ago, a Salford NHS clinical commissioning group executive revealed that the trial had still not successfully reached 250 tests a day.

So I'm reading this collectively now as a recognition that there is a real problem in the NW region with availability of testing and turn around times are far too slow.

Salford is now theorectically already recieving the assistance that they are now promising to Liverpool and Lancashire with rapid testing.

BUT crucially, the amount that this will improve the situation in the near future is vastly overstated simply because the Salford pilot is struggling to make anywhere near the numbers that were being promised.

This isn't going to make a big difference to anything anytime soon.

IceCreamSummer20 · 16/10/2020 16:31

Patrick Vallance has got better and has admitted he made mistakes. I was disappointed in him in the beginning, with his herd immunity and lack of true leadership imho. But these are rapidly changing times and I do think he’s reflected over the summer and is more reliable now.

PrayingandHoping · 16/10/2020 16:41

Well that was a massive slap down for Burnham and GM!

I couldn't quite take Vallance current thoughts on circuit breaker. Sounded like he thought it would have been good in September and maybe not so now in the same way. Also interesting that he emphasised that yes the scientists said that but he also pointed out that there were a lot more things to consider (like people's mental health and hospital services). He doesn't sound like he's only for the circuit breaker.

JVT... well he always made me smile in briefings when I noticed he must be somewhat vertically challenged and was always stood on a step! But I like the way he comes across. He's v personable

PolloDePrimavera · 16/10/2020 16:46

I've googled and not found anything: has anyone predicted when the peak of the second wave will be? I seem to think it was predicted first time around but may be confused.. Thanks.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2020 16:46

Jennifer Williams @JenWilliamsMEN
Notable that all of the pressure is being piled specifically on Andy Burnham, not council leaders (notable one of them, Bolton's, is Tory). As I said earlier in the week, govt will direct this at him; his high profile is both a blessing and a curse.

Today's press conference isn't a bit of a subtweet of Greater Manchester, it's basically just about Greater Manchester.

I think if you zoom back out to where we were earlier in the summer in Greater Manchester - then look at where we are now - it's important to bear in mind the battles that local public health have been through along the journey to this point.

GM has never had the contact tracing capability/control that it needs, for a start. We didn't reach this point this week. We reached it over a long period of time.

Makes me a bit despairing that so many of us here feared this. This is the 'what is a local lockdown and how does it work' argument - which goes back to May - on steroids. That's not to argue in favour of what should be done now. But this situation did NOT come out of a vacuum.

Coquohvan · 16/10/2020 16:48

Did I hear that the Gov is paying now 80% of salary to those who are forced to close in T3?
I heard Gordon Brown on BBC1 this morning saying that Rushi needs to reconsider his help and give 80% to these workers. It was unfair to people now losing work again compared to March lockdown payments.

CoffeeandCroissant · 16/10/2020 16:52

@ancientgran

I like JVT, well maybe not like him he scares me a bit, but I trust him.
Somebody even made a song about JC Van T. Grin m.youtube.com/watch?v=C25sUwM7lP0
BigChocFrenzy · 16/10/2020 16:53

UK today

(last few days in brackets)

Cases 15,650..... (18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 136 ........ (138, 137, 143, 50, 65, 81, 87)

OP posts:
MotherOfDragonite · 16/10/2020 16:53

Boris talks so much and says so little.

I noticed the emphasis on "things we need to do as individuals" in that press conference, which seems pretty disingenuous as the most effective measures are in fact systemic ones -- which he is responsible for and which aren't working. I find him very psychologically interesting (and, honestly, repulsive).

MarshaBradyo · 16/10/2020 16:54

@Coquohvan

Did I hear that the Gov is paying now 80% of salary to those who are forced to close in T3? I heard Gordon Brown on BBC1 this morning saying that Rushi needs to reconsider his help and give 80% to these workers. It was unfair to people now losing work again compared to March lockdown payments.
I heard 80% in that briefing and wondered if it had changed.
RedToothBrush · 16/10/2020 16:58

@Coquohvan

Did I hear that the Gov is paying now 80% of salary to those who are forced to close in T3? I heard Gordon Brown on BBC1 this morning saying that Rushi needs to reconsider his help and give 80% to these workers. It was unfair to people now losing work again compared to March lockdown payments.
He did say 80% during the course of the presser. I did wonder if this was an error.

Worth pointing out though, its to businesses forced to close. Its not like the original scheme where every business was eligible. This is a massive issue for supply chain business. So it does not match the original scheme in any way even though it sounds like it does.

So a pub which serves food is almost better to stop serving food and then say they have been forced to close because of how they will be eligible/not eligible.

Its why a comedy club in Liverpool is making a point of staying open because since they are classed as an 'entertainment venue' rather than a bar, they would fall through the cracks of not being eligible.

Its very telling how much slight of hand is going on, as to sound better than the measures actually are to anyone not paying close attention.

Frazzled2207 · 16/10/2020 17:03

Just seen a tweet that says that 80% of Covid patients in ICU are overweight, obese or morbidly obese. I’m surprised there isn’t more said about that and makes the whole closing gyms thing daft. It also makes an interesting point that this will be why some countries have so many less ICU admissions. In japan for example (and I would imagine many European countries) far less people than in the UK are overweight.

knittingaddict · 16/10/2020 17:07

I do wonder what percentage of people in the UK are in the overweight category and above. It must be quite high.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2020 17:08

@knittingaddict

I do wonder what percentage of people in the UK are in the overweight category and above. It must be quite high.
I think its about 2/3.
knittingaddict · 16/10/2020 17:13

I've had a quick look and it appears that 28.7% of the population are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight. That makes a total of 64.3%.

Percentage of people in hospital is meaningless without some context.

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