Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Do we have any idea on what to expect from Boris' press conference later? I wasn't expecting one today.

Is it definitely about Covid-19? It could be about the No Deal Brexit?

But why on earth appoint Dido Harding if not nepotism?

She was around, she had half-credible CV (McKinzey is a plus, TalkTalk is a minus) and, based on the press coverage, she was ready to work for free.

The government had to make decisions quickly and finding the right candidate (ideally - someone with epidemiological background who has also got strong organisational and execution skills) would have taken time. They went for an easy option. I am hoping they are still looking for the right person but - let us face it - it is not the job that many people will want. It doesn't pay well and it has got the huge downside (as we see from all the criticism Dido is currently getting).

But huge kudos for someone competent coming in and sorting it out.

Love these stats released from the Irish COVID tracker app - a really good way for people to visualise the impacts

The challenge is someone competent (who understands epidemiology) can get a high five to six figure contract in a private sector on top of their academic/research job. Many companies are hiring "medical consultants" to provide COVID-related advice. The organisation I work for has got one.

You need to be really determined and altruistic to choose the T&T mandate over this easy alternative.

Yes I would sssume it’s a difference between residents and staff, obviously staff still live in the community so would qualify for inclusion but they were never trying to make conclusions re care home spread from this piece of work.

@ancientgran - I believe from the methodology that prospective participants are written to at a home address. In practical terms anyone could probably sign up if they get contacted via an old address, but anyone who can't decide for themselves by signing the forms is likely to be excluded, as well as anyone who no longer has a separate home address etc.
Care homes have a duty to report flu outbreaks, now covid too. So perhaps there isn't more of an attempt to include them because it would lead to double-counting?
Disclaimer - this is all speculation based on reading how they select for the survey, anyone knowledgeable please correct me.

According to the BBC, Johnson won’t be alone at 4pm:

^PM to give coronavirus press conference later
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to give a coronavirus press conference later today.

It will be held at Downing Street and is expected to take place at 16:00 BST.

Mr Johnson will be joined by chief scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance and Dr Susan Hopkins, medical advisor to the government's Covid-19 response.^

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54558391

I'm going to push the boat out and increase my stake to 16 pence on a circuit breaker announcement.

My heart sinks whenever I see one of these now. I wouldn't have thought they'd change something so quickly, but then I wouldn't have thought Tier 3 would mean different things in Liverpool and Lancashire when it was meant to simplify things.

You're probably right MRex. That just looks so weak and lacking in direction though.

I'm betting that it's going to be a nationwide lockdown and blame is going to go to:

• mayor's of major cities who are non-compliant with the tier system
• people being irresponsible, especially uni students

So even though the gov heroically tried everything, alas, they have no other option.

and maybe a similar sidenote on no-deal brexit (change mayor/ppl/student to EU)

I don't know if anyone has seen, but the minutes of the October SAGE meeting were published today and included some in-depth analysis of hospital admissions/deaths, both from the entire pandemic period and then separately from 1 Aug to end Sept.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/dynamic-co-cin-report-to-sage-and-nervtag-recent-cases-29-september-2020

Interesting bits I've noticed so far --

• obesity in the latest data seems to add no additional risk of death;
• hospital admissions since Aug have seen more women than men admitted by quite a large margin in the younger age groups, including 15-19 year olds

- and within 10 days of admission, approx. 70% of patients are now discharged, compared to approx. 35% over the entire period.

I know, I know it's schools but this is data or, more importantly a shocking - yet unsurprising - lack of data collection:

schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-closes-covid-attendance-loophole-6-weeks-into-term/

The ONS survey today does also show a steep rise in years 7-11.

Interesting about obesity Patricia . The ICNARC data shows an increased risk particularly in the morbidly obese- but I suppose they are a select group.

Not the morbidly obese, the people needing ICU.

@MRex

I'm going to push the boat out and increase my stake to 16 pence on a circuit breaker announcement.

I forsee some Burnham bashing despite the lack of local agreement being cross party with one of Bolton's conservative MPs kicking up a stink about it (Bolton was put into equivalent of t3 previously and its devastated businesses and the MP doesn't think the measures are effective anyway) and conservative graham brady threatening legal action if the measures are imposed.

I think it's all going to be about brexit.
I do think the circuit breaker idea is inevitable though and surely the sooner the better.

Mr Johnson will be joined by chief scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance and Dr Susan Hopkins, medical advisor to the government's Covid-19 response

That would be weird for Brexit- but who knows?!

@Frazzled2207

I think it's all going to be about brexit. I do think the circuit breaker idea is inevitable though and surely the sooner the better.

oh had missed the bit about him having some bods with him. Probably about covid then but given that he's been distracted with brexit today I still don't expect a significant announcement. He might find a way to slag off andy burnham though.

@Frazzled2207

I think it's all going to be about brexit. I do think the circuit breaker idea is inevitable though and surely the sooner the better.

Whitty and Susan Hopkins being present points towards it being covid related although I'm leaning towards it being about Lancashire as opposed to a circuit breaker (although suspect you are right about it coming at some pt)

Government message was interesting this morning. Talking about Khan and other working with them. Unlike Burnham and hope he starts to etc. Was quite blunt but interesting on messages that swing control of narrative away.

Cross Post, sorry!

@wintertravel1980

But why on earth appoint Dido Harding if not nepotism?

She was around, she had half-credible CV (McKinzey is a plus, TalkTalk is a minus) and, based on the press coverage, she was ready to work for free.

The government had to make decisions quickly and finding the right candidate (ideally - someone with epidemiological background who has also got strong organisational and execution skills) would have taken time. They went for an easy option. I am hoping they are still looking for the right person but - let us face it - it is not the job that many people will want. It doesn't pay well and it has got the huge downside (as we see from all the criticism Dido is currently getting).

If there is 12 billion going, is Dido not getting a hefty wedge of that then?

My money's on Boris trying to paper over the cracks between North & South.

I'm following developments numbers wise trying to establish when to hint that my parents might want to cut back their outings to essential stuff only.

We're in a medium risk (Tier 1) area but bordering on a Tier 2 which may become Tier 3.
I encouraged them to come out of lockdown in the summer months as they were unsure about doing so but we could all see this coming I suppose so thought it best to venture out more while numbers were so low in July/August.
Both have multiple health issues, simple flu could carry one of them off this winter as it almost did to DF 2 years ago, Covid-19 doesn't bear thinking about.
If the numbers don't start declining again soon, I'll be back to doing their shopping and cutting their hair etc over the coming months.