Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Tim Specter Zoe App

Case rising steadily and rapidly in the North of England
October 16, 2020
According to the COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey figures, there are currently, 27,762 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 11 October (excluding care homes) [*]. This compares to 21,903 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago. This figure is based on the number of newly symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on the data from 13,361 recent swab tests done between 27 September to 11 October.
The app’s data continues to show a big disparity between the North and South of England. This week the North West (7,313 new cases per day) has overtaken the North East and Yorkshire (5,762). The South West (1,279) remains the lowest region, followed by East of England (1,356) and South East (1,417).
The COVID Symptom Study is now using its symptomatic COVID estimates to predict which regions in the UK could be next to be put under Tier 3 restrictions. Using predicted symptomatic cases means that predictions can be made up to ten days before confirmed tested cases are made public. The new Tier Prediction model takes the Tier 2 regions as defined by the Government (100,000 cases per million), uses the average estimated cases over the last seven days and ranks the regions in descending order. The area with the largest weekly average prevalence is ranked the highest. According to the data, Burnley and Manchester, the two regions already earmarked by the Government to be next to enter Tier 3, are top of the app’s Tier Prediction model. The next regions are; Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham, Bury, Hartlepool, Salford, Sheffield and Leeds.
The COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey has been running since early May when the COVID Symptom Study commenced the daily swab testing programme provided by the Test and Trace. The CSS has so far recorded over a million swab results from app users. The COVID Symptom Study UK Infection Survey estimates the number of current COVID-19 positive cases in the community based on the information logged by users in the app and the results from the swab testing programme. It identifies differences in numbers within the regions throughout the UK, and tracks the change in estimated cases over time. It is the largest survey of its kind in the UK.
The COVID Symptom Study app is a not-for-profit initiative that was launched at the end of March 2020 to support vital COVID-19 research. The app was launched by health science company ZOE with scientific analysis provided by King’s College London. With over 4 million contributors, the Study is the world’s largest ongoing Symptom study of COVID-19.
Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, comments:
“The data is no longer showing the exponential increases that we were seeing a couple of weeks ago, but is clearly showing new cases continuing to rise. The North West still has the most cases and the fastest acceleration of cases with doubling times of around 10 days. Slowing this rapid rise is a priority. Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly increasing with a doubling time of 14-28 days and the South and East of England remaining relatively flat with five-fold fewer cases than the worst hit regions. Our data is roughly 7-10 days ahead of other sources meaning that it acts like an early warning system, whilst we wait for the data from the confirmed cases.
Our new Tier Prediction model highlights that nine out of 10 are in the North of England, where most of the cases currently are concentrated, unlike the North which is accelerating, London has been showing a steady linear increase, doubling every 21 (range 14-28) days so it will be interesting to see how the new Tier 2 restrictions influence the rate of new cases in the next two weeks.”

Primary school aged children seem fine in comparison with the general population.

In terms of symptomatic cases.

1. Schools have strongly urged parents to follow the 3 main symptoms for tests.

1. Many children are asymptomatic.

1. Many children actually have different symptoms to the three listed.

Granted we don't know the full story about asymptomatic spread but it's been noted that transmission is high pre any symptoms.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/headteacher-warns-parents-over-lesser-19102778

@TackyTriceratops

The ONS study tests whole households. So would include symptomatic, asymptotic and no Covid family members.

Therefore the rate in primary school children they have will include those who are symptomatic.

Re Ireland secondary school children wearing masks. Do they have an equivalent ONS report which shows the prevalence in their secondary schools to compare?

Well not only do I have 1 preschooler isolating until next week. DC1 school is now closed, as of 30 mins ago, until at least after half term and they don't know yet if they'll reopen then.

Do we have any idea on what to expect from Boris' press conference later? I wasn't expecting one today.

I don't think incompetence is much better than corruption if it means billions are wasted.

@SmileDaily 4pm

www.lbc.co.uk/politics/the-news-explained/coronavirus-uk-what-time-is-boris-johnsons-press-conference/

Oh sorry I thought I asked what time!

The rest of the article speculates it's about Lancashire and GM

@PrayingandHoping

Oh sorry I thought I asked what time!

The rest of the article speculates it's about Lancashire and GM

I hope so. Random press briefings make me nervous.

As we've discussed before, both ONS and Covid-Zoe suffer from responder bias. People won't take part who really won't isolate, don't agree covid is real, have no English language skills, live in a care home and all the myriad other non-response reasons Is there evidence about this, I ask as I know people who have declined and they don't fit into any of those categories e.g. one is a nurse who definitely knows Covid is real, speaks excellent English and doesn't live in a care home. I also know someone in a care home who is taking part. I know that isn't data but I'd be interested in any data you have.

I wouldn't do it just because I don't want to.

Ditto @MarshaBradyo! Glad 4pm isn't far away!

He isn't have the big guns next to him though Whitty, Vallance, Sunak and co.... so I'm thinking it won't be jaw dropping

Just heard on LBC radio that Sage has said we need to lockdown immediately! I was listening in to the news and did a double take: nothing on the online news about this though. Did anyone else hear this?

@PrayingandHoping

Ditto *@MarshaBradyo*! Glad 4pm isn't far away!

He isn't have the big guns next to him though Whitty, Vallance, Sunak and co.... so I'm thinking it won't be jaw dropping

Phew. I don’t think he can drop a lock down on us without them.

South West has the lowest cases but the highest R rate, how can that be?

Ons wasn’t tracking care homes and specifically just looking at cases in the community.

On the whole I think it is the best random sampling option we have, paying people to take part will encourage many who are not taking covid seriously to give it a go. It’s not perfect obviously but I honestly cannot think of another way to track community spread and have a lot of respect generally for the ons who generally have respect worldwide for their approach to statistics (honestly the U.K. isn’t crap at everything!).

The Zoe app obviously is much more self selective and I think selection basis is more of an issue there.

O

He did last time...

Although 4pm would be an odd time for that announcement.

@Hmmph

He did last time...

Although 4pm would be an odd time for that announcement.

Yeh I suppose he did the address to the nation - do you mean that one?

Not sure if I’m misremembering but I felt like we knew it was happening before he announced it. Due to hoo ha around address.

To put Lancashire into tier 3 and announce a lockdown same day would be unlikely surely. Why would they have bothered with the first announcement and all that went with it. Would be pointless.

But that's just speculating.

South West has the lowest cases but the highest R rate, how can that be? Don't they say the R rate is less reliable with very low numbers? I think it is something like if you only have one person with it and then two more get it the R rate is 2 but the numbers are still low with only 3 having it. Something like that I think.

Yeh I agree with you Praying. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

I’m reminded of that ramped you feeling I got when briefings were very intense daily

Praying and Hoping, I thought that but then I thought you can't really predict what they do so who knows.

@ancientgran - sorry, I was unclear. The point isn't that others such as your friend would refuse, you're quite correct that plenty will decline of all types. Studies have shown that the type of people responding to studies will proportionally have less deprivation, less non-english speakers etc; example:
journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0067912.
We had a long discussion in a previous thread that certain risk factors of covid overlap with this list (care home residents being a huge known omission) and could even mean exaggerated responder bias in this case for certain communities, particularly given the financial difficulties of isolation falling disproportionately on those with lower incomes. I haven't seen any direct analysis of these studies, so it is theoretical based on similar studies.

@ancientgran

South West has the lowest cases but the highest R rate, how can that be? Don't they say the R rate is less reliable with very low numbers? I think it is something like if you only have one person with it and then two more get it the R rate is 2 but the numbers are still low with only 3 having it. Something like that I think.

That makes sense thank you. The cases has gone up, ours has nearly trebled in the last week but still lower then everywhere else. The R rate here is 1.6 apparently.

I didn't know about the care homes being omitted. I wonder how the lady I know got included? Could age come into it, she is under retirement age?