Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

[quote wintertravel1980]The surveillance report no longer splits down the education settings.

It does but the details are in the second attachment (page 8):

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926847/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W42.pdf[/quote]
I'd like to see number of cases by educational setting as well as number of clusters/outbreaks. The plots on page 8 don't give anywhere near enough information. We know the uni outbreaks have been big because they've been in the papers, so why aren't they publishing that data? I worry that PHE are obfuscating a problem in secondary schools in particular.

I’m yet to see data which shows there was lower levels of compliance during the March lockdown + summer in Liverpool and Manchester when compared with other cities.

There may not be data, how do you measure compliance? But what other explanation is there, when other areas got their figures right down. Same rules, different outcome. In any event, it probably won't make much difference in the end, as we all, and I mean Europe, seem to have ended up, or will be soon, in the same place, with or without an early or strict lockdown, and with or without compliance.

So it's not the actual individuals who get the annual 1.5m. As a tax payer I don't think it matters who is getting the 1.5m, if we are paying it or should I say our GC and GGC will be paying it for years to come.

I'd like to see number of cases by educational setting as well as number of clusters/outbreaks.

Yes, I agree the information in the report is not sufficient. I was just pointing out that the old split is still available - it has just been moved to the second (separate) part of the document.

Absolutely winter, and thank you for locating it. I'm uneasy that even that limited data was moved out of the main document.

HoldingTight I've swapped in Belgium - I omitted it before, because of an anomaly:

Belgium was even higher / million than NL, but has a sudden drop at the end of the graph that doesn't seem to fit the latest 2 days figures I read

• maybe a curve fitting quirk, or missing data

Rolling 7-day average of new cases / per million pop:

As a tax payer I don't think it matters who is getting the 1.5m, if we are paying it or should I say our GC and GGC will be paying it for years to come.

In the grand scheme of things, 1.5mm is a drop in the ocean of total COVID spending. The estimated budget has now gone up to 210bln with furlough costs being the most significant item (47bln earmarked in total and 35.6bln spent by the end of August).

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

We and our children will indeed be paying the bill for many years to come. Of course, there has been enough money wasted but even with the most efficient cost management the total spending would have still hit an astronomical level. Shutting down the economy comes with a very high price tag.

@wintertravel1980

I'd like to see number of cases by educational setting as well as number of clusters/outbreaks.

Yes, I agree the information in the report is not sufficient. I was just pointing out that the old split is still available - it has just been moved to the second (separate) part of the document.

... Well spotted, winter

I don't like the old age split either though, as it doesn't help separate uni students - mixes in the last school year with 1st uni year

10-16, 17-19, 20-29

Remember the same isolation period holds for adults, who will go to work and mix with other adults
It's not all about schools

Yes but all workplaces with adults have social distancing and / or masks. Mostly both as far as I can tell.

Schools have neither.

Sorry - that should read 'ONLY adults'. I am extremely aware and extremely concerned about all the teachers being forced into unsafe workplaces without the basic protections afforded to all other employees.

(Sorry teachers).

Looking at 7-day rolling average of total deaths / million:

Spain's total deaths have risen more sharply than other countries

Spain didn't reach NL's or Belgium's recent new cases / million, so I wonder if that was because more older people were infected in Spain,
and / or their health service capacity was too stretched

Anyway, now their cases have levelled off, hopefully measures & systems can cope better, so deaths level off again

I keep checking worldometer and the only two European countries that seem to be doing better than the others are Norway and Denmark. Even Finland seems to be on the rise (even though the numbers are still low).

I tend to agree with Baaaahhhhh that most of Europe might soon end up in the same place irrespective of the level of compliance with rules and the lockdown timing. It is quite depressing (and I am normally an optimist) but so far the numbers do not look great.

@IloveJKRowling

Remember the same isolation period holds for adults, who will go to work and mix with other adults It's not all about schools

Yes but all workplaces with adults have social distancing and / or masks. Mostly both as far as I can tell.

Schools have neither.

... Well, not all e.g. gyms, trainers

Basically any job where masks interfere with work and / or they cba

@wintertravel1980

I keep checking worldometer and the only two European countries that seem to be doing better than the others are Norway and Denmark. Even Finland seems to be on the rise (even though the numbers are still low).

I tend to agree with Baaaahhhhh that most of Europe might soon end up in the same place irrespective of the level of compliance with rules and the lockdown timing. It is quite depressing (and I am normally an optimist) but so far the numbers do not look great.

... What will again matter is deaths, imo including for consumer confidence later

How well countries protect the elderly and ECV
How well the health services cope, their ICU capacity etc and also continuing to treat non-Covid ailments

[quote wintertravel1980]The surveillance report no longer splits down the education settings.

It does but the details are in the second attachment (page 8):

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926847/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W42.pdf[/quote]
Graphs on page 5 are interesting, for ages 10-16 the most deprived IMD quintile shows the most cases, for 17-19 most cases in the least deprived quintile (far more cases per 100,000 in the later age group as well)

The countries with low population density again have that enormous advantage that is basically an effective inbuilt SD measure

So likely Scandinavia again will do well - and may avoid needing lockdowns this time round, now the virus is no longer novel

In fact, with greater knowledge of the virus, many countries may not go as far as a national lockdown of any length,
but prefer to accept even say 20% higher deaths per day than normal

Depends on how the public view this in each country

The UK is considering a lockdown because the NHS has little spare capacity in winter
and shutting down other services has limits too

It would be unacceptable in any country to let the health service become overwhelmed - it would likely result in panic, possibly civil disorder -
so any lockdown needs to be ordered at least 4 weeks before that is predicted

Hence health service capacity is another factor that will affect decisions that governments make

France may be nearing that decision, Spain too ?

Basically any job where masks interfere with work and / or they cba

Are people working in gyms and personal trainers banned from wearing masks? Like many teachers?

I keep thinking, if they chose to, they could easily separate out school / FE/HE students.

When you book a test it asks for the name of your workplace or place of study.

Good article which explains some of the rationale behind pub curfew.

digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/381/reader/reader.html?#!preferred/0/package/381/pub/381/page/13/article/91652

Extract

Of all the variables, time emerges as perhaps the single most important risk that people underestimate. We think of 15 minutes (the measure used by NHS Test and Trace to determine a significant exposure) to be the cut-off, but the Event R model suggests the risk of infection rises steeply for hours, every extra minute making a difference. It is almost certainly this factor, among others, that explains the 10pm closing time for pubs, as it slashes the time drinkers are exposed.

The IMF recently warned about how it's impossible to maintain a functioning healthy economy unless Covid was contained.

Re population density. South Korea and Taiwan and Japan are quite high density?

Separately, I suspect data wise we'll see quite a lot on Long Covid - but not until after the event? I suspect the next few years we'll start to build up info as more and more initially under the radar cases come to light.

What are other countries doing about it does anyone know? The NHS is setting up treatment clinics. I'm wondering about places like Germany. As they're treating early, perhaps less patients will go on to develop Long Covid?

Anyone else having problems with Twitter tonight? (Full disclosure: I may have called Jacob Rees-Mogg a cunt a couple of times today).

@IloveJKRowling

Basically any job where masks interfere with work and / or they cba

Are people working in gyms and personal trainers banned from wearing masks? Like many teachers?

... Banned ? Well they wouldn't be able to work with a mask on Same as we can't train with masks on

So we are all adults together - some aged 60+ like me - without masks
Mostly panting and gasping for breath

I've been at the gym 5 days per week since they reopened on 16 May
and noone, customer or trainer, has ever worn a mask

"South Korea and Taiwan and Japan are quite high density"

Yes, but v different societies to the West:
more mask-wearers and close trackers, very compliant with public health measures

Also, previous exposure to SARS meant SKorea & Taiwan authorities, like HK & VietNam, knew how to tackle its cousin - may have given some effective prior immunity too.

Results of the WHO SOLIDARITY trial:

30 countries & 11,266 adults with COVID19 randomized to Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir, Interferon or no study drug.

None of these regimens had any real benefit on mortality or length of hospital stay.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1