Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@TheSunIsStillShining

I get the French/English divide and competition, but it might be time to put that to rest. France's 30k today is a bit more than alarming.

... It is indeed, but I suspect all the larger pop European countries may reach 30-40k at some stage, or indeed repeatedly this winter

The strategy has to be to get down quickly from that, whatever it takes, because health systems will soon be overwhelmed at that level of cases

Can I ask, does anyone have a link to research on infectiousness 10-14 days after exposure? ie what is the likelihood of a close contact being infectious by day 10, day 14? (Asymptomatic)

I remember seeing the shape of the graphs of infectiousness (sorry there's a better term I'm sure) somewhere, probably here!
Thanks

"Does this mean 80% at all tiers not just tier 3?
As this will cost fortune when it applies to the rest of the country too."

marsha Every alternative costs a fortune
It's a matter of choosing value for money

Keeping people from losing their jobs, their homes, their businesses is imo a good investment for the future
So is investing to improve test & trace
So is investing to make schools safer

btw, Merkel is spending ~ €1 trillion on this Covid crisis - and she is notoriously frugal in normal times.
That's a staggering € 1,000 billion on investment in public health services, hosptials, schools, financial support for employees and self-employed, grants and loans for business

A country that wants to prosper after this shit is over needs to support its people and businesses adequately

Somebody asked a couple of days ago about flu vaccine take-up. It's near the end of the now very long covid and flu surveillance report. Higher for all age groups than usual by this date and much higher for little kids than usual (but coming from a lower baseline).
Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients figures:
• 12.0% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group
• 13.0% in pregnant women
• 47.5% in 65+ year olds
• 19.5% in 2 year olds
• 21.0% in 3 year olds.

@BigChocFrenzy

Someone may indeed go to hospital with something else that is very survivable, but Covid, or Covid combined with that is what kills them

However much some people wish otherwise,
these 65,000 excess deaths in the UK were nearly all because of Covid and would not have happened otherwise

I would imagine Covid has an effect on most things that require admission to hospital because it increases the chances of issues with blood clots and this is already an issue for people spending a lot of time in bed.

@BigChocFrenzy

"Does this mean 80% at all tiers not just tier 3? As this will cost fortune when it applies to the rest of the country too."

marsha Every alternative costs a fortune
It's a matter of choosing value for money

Keeping people from losing their jobs, their homes, their businesses is imo a good investment for the future
So is investing to improve test & trace
So is investing to make schools safer

btw, Merkel is spending ~ €1 trillion on this Covid crisis - and she is notoriously frugal in normal times.
That's a staggering € 1,000 billion on investment in public health services, hosptials, schools, financial support for employees and self-employed, grants and loans for business

A country that wants to prosper after this shit is over needs to support its people and businesses adequately

Staggering.

I don’t think we’re far off with funding. From what I’ve heard on comparisons for grants / furlough etc

I fear that the GErmany we all admired is in deep trouble.
I wonder if there is a threshold of what infection level is traceable with a proper TTR and when does it become too much. BCF - any news on this in local media?

On media: which german newspapers (non-payed) would you say are the best to read? Atm I'm looking at Der Spiegel as that I can mostly understand, but I need to learn

@Augustbreeze

Can I ask, does anyone have a link to research on infectiousness 10-14 days after exposure? ie what is the likelihood of a close contact being infectious by day 10, day 14? (Asymptomatic)

I remember seeing the shape of the graphs of infectiousness (sorry there's a better term I'm sure) somewhere, probably here!
Thanks

... I've got a chart showing imfection times and also when swabs can detect the virus

Infectious period is normally 3-15 days, so up to about 12 days after onset of symptoms - if any -
but there have been occasional cases of infection several days later

@MarshaBradyo
The problem is that in the UK money has been thrown at cronies or just mindlessly. Not in a targeted, calculated, thought out way.

And on this point: I see the N mayors' points, but not willing to go into T3 for politics I think is a wrong move.

Infectious period is normally 3-15 days, so up to about 12 days after onset of symptoms - if any -
but there have been occasional cases of infection several days later

So the policy of going back to school 10 days after first symptoms without a negative test, if pupil feels okay is utterly wrong. right?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I fear that the GErmany we all admired is in deep trouble. I wonder if there is a threshold of what infection level is traceable with a proper TTR and when does it become too much. BCF - any news on this in local media?

On media: which german newspapers (non-payed) would you say are the best to read? Atm I'm looking at Der Spiegel as that I can mostly understand, but I need to learn

... This is a good guide to help choose German newspapers: www.deutschland.de/en/topic/knowledge/national-newspapers

The low deaths in the 1st wave mean public tolerance of risk now, to let the economy recover and enjoy life
So deliberate policy of staying relaxed until now

• but the country is at 35 / 100,000 , nearly 7k cases today and in sharp exponential growth

Not yet in deep trouble, especially with the huge ICU spare capacity and pretty good public compliance & trust, but action had to be taken after this last week's sharp cases growth

Last Friday, Merkel got the leaders of the 16 states to agree to cut back on the ridiculously large private gatherings allowed, with some more measures added yesterday
She wouldn't have got that agreement with them before this sharp rise, so she was realistic about waiting

Hopefully the previous months of very relaxed policy will mean there is not much "SD fatigue" so the new measures will be complied with as well

BCF: Thank you!

sun If you want to track German cases:

Dashboard lets you zoom in on districts for 7-day incdients, total cases, deaths etc

experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

daily RKI reports are very useful, German and a - probably truncated - English version
Has 7-day incidence, 4-day and 7-day R, detailled info about the states , outbreaks etc

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?nn=13490888

@TheSunIsStillShining

*Infectious period is normally 3-15 days, so up to about 12 days after onset of symptoms - if any - but there have been occasional cases of infection several days later*

So the policy of going back to school 10 days after first symptoms without a negative test, if pupil feels okay is utterly wrong. right?

It's a balance to my mind. The longer you make the isolation period, the fewer people will comply with it.

I'd be interested to know how the reduction to 7 days isolation in France has worked in terms of compliance. In general terms it seems better to have 75% of people isolate for a week than 25% of people isolate for 14 days.

Remember the same isolation period holds for adults, who will go to work and mix with other adults
It's not all about schools

Looking at the PHE surveillance report,

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/926846/WeeklyyFluanddCOVID-19reportt_w42.pdf

the 20-29 age group have slightly more cases than the 10-19, especially males,
but the younger few years in that latter grouping would not be allowed the freedom of especially the 18+ group

We do need an 18-2 1 / 22 grouping

Thanks for the graph etc BCF

Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO’s regional director for Europe:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/europe-records-highest-ever-weekly-covid-cases-says-who-expert

“We are recording two to three times more cases per day compared with April,
but five times fewer deaths,
and hospital admissions are taking two to three times longer to double
...
“The pandemic today is not the pandemic yesterday
– not only in terms of its transmission dynamic, but in the ways we are now equipped to face it.”
....
Models suggested that if governments loosened restrictions for any length of time, daily Covid deaths could reach five times their previous highs by January next year, Kluge said.

But the models also showed that simple measures could dramatically slow the trend.

“The systematic and generalised wearing of masks, at a 95% rate rather than the 60% rate today,
together with strict controls on social gatherings in public or private spaces,
could save up to 281,000 lives by 1 February,”

I don't think you will see true statistics for 14 to 21 days... The students will have a large influence in some cities that will filter through to the community but I think some cities will peak and fall drastically like Nottingham.

In cities like Liverpool and Manchester there is a more underlying problem where the lockdown early on was not so effective because there was a lack of acceptance of the severity of the virus.

The surveillance report no longer splits down the education settings.

It does but the details are in the second attachment (page 8):

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926847/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W42.pdf

Looking across Europe, a similar picture

However, I've done a plot of rolling 7-day average of cases per million

and as I suspected, it then looks like the Netherlands is the one with the most serious situation atm, not France

and thankfully Spain's measures seem to have worked for now, as they have levelled off

In cities like Liverpool and Manchester there is a more underlying problem where the lockdown early on was not so effective because there was a lack of acceptance of the severity of the virus.

I’m not convinced that there is a lack of acceptance of the severity of the virus. More a lack of trust in the government. Why comply with the measures (even if you are terrified of the virus) when you have absolutely no faith that the measures will have any effect? Besides, I’m yet to see data which shows there was lower levels of compliance during the March lockdown + summer in Liverpool and Manchester when compared with other cities.

@ChloeCrocodile
Agree totally. I’m in GM and everyone is pretty compliant (albeit fed up) round here. Lack of trust in the government however is a real issue. We’ve had local restrictions since the end of July. Our numbers have sky rocketed. If Track and trace had worked properly we probably wouldn’t be in the pickle we now find ourselves in.

@BigChocFrenzy

Looking across Europe, a similar picture

However, I've done a plot of rolling 7-day average of cases per million

and as I suspected, it then looks like the Netherlands is the one with the most serious situation atm, not France

What about Belgium? Apologies if already mentioned.