Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

From what I understand the potential benefits of these drugs was as early treatment to prevent progression to hospital stage. Whether that's the case or not I don't know.

Times front page: "Russians spread fake news over Oxford virus vaccine. Vaccine can turn humans into chimps."
mobile.twitter.com/jshield/status/1316853558982123524

Surely even anti vaxxers aren't daft enough to believe such crude propaganda and ridiculous claims? And anti vaxxers were never going to have the vaccine anyway. Almost wonder if the Times have been pranked, the claim and graphics are so bad? In any case the Russian vaccine is said to be similar to the Oxford one, why would they try to stop their own population from taking it? Maybe the 'chimps' will take over Russia, Planet of the apes style.

Circuit-breakers

imo = renamed "lockdown," a traditional tactic by governments for many decades e.g. Sellafield / WIndscale

Useful BBC graph attached of the difference it could make,
but maybe don't take the numbers too seriously

Note: govt would need to explain that deaths will rise again afterwards, just not as much

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54206582

"When would we know if it was working?

Not until after the circuit breaker was lifted.
It can take a week between being infected and developing symptoms, the same again between getting sick and needing hospital treatment, and up to a month before people die.

All of these lags mean the statistics on deaths and hospital admissions are expected to look worse throughout the whole of a circuit breaker.
It is only later that the benefits begin to trickle through."
< and may be denied, as after lockdown #1 >

@CoffeeandCroissant

Times front page: "Russians spread fake news over Oxford virus vaccine. Vaccine can turn humans into chimps." mobile.twitter.com/jshield/status/1316853558982123524

Surely even anti vaxxers aren't daft enough to believe such crude propaganda and ridiculous claims? And anti vaxxers were never going to have the vaccine anyway. Almost wonder if the Times have been pranked, the claim and graphics are so bad? In any case the Russian vaccine is said to be similar to the Oxford one, why would they try to stop their own population from taking it? Maybe the 'chimps' will take over Russia, Planet of the apes style.

..... not much crazier than Bill Gates inventing this crisis to put microchips in the vaccines, for mind control by the Satanic blood-drinking global elite

I think the vaccine turns us all into Russian sheep 🐑 Which is ok because sheep are brilliant.

Blood sucking elite....the world is ruled by mosquitos.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/927105/greater-manchester-dcmo-brief.pdf

Slides from the briefing from the deputy CMO to the Manchester MPs. Heat map shows increasing age of cases and rapid hospital admissions

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@MarshaBradyo
The problem is that in the UK money has been thrown at cronies or just mindlessly. Not in a targeted, calculated, thought out way.

And on this point: I see the N mayors' points, but not willing to go into T3 for politics I think is a wrong move.[/quote]
Thinking about this the first points are highly reasonable - change off sale time / local trace etc

These apply to tier 2 and are clear and possible

But the last part is vague and overall. For all tiers it requests Sunak change his strategy and rethink system.

It would have been better to ask for more funding for tier 3 alone at least. Since this is one main barrier to entering it.

Its a bit like writing a letter to a landlord asking for new curtains or whatever, specific and doable but then ending with and not only me, but everyone should pay half rent. Former more likely to be ignored.

I hope the top changes are made. Will be interesting to see what happens today.

Outrageous claims are designed to move perspective, deliberately designed as a sequence of messages to make someone think there must be something in it. The "sensible" follow-ups quietly: just ignore that, it doesn't turn people into actual chimps, it was just the brain damage was compared with chimps. Oh, you didn't know about the brain damage? Surely everyone knows about the brain damage.

disclaimer - this is hyperbole to explain how the misinformation works, there is no brain damage

Consider David Icke with the alien lizard people running the world in a global conspiracy. The follow-up: of course they aren't actual lizards, but they are running the world in a global conspiracy.

disclaimer etc

*Banned ? Well they wouldn't be able to work with a mask on
Same as we can't train with masks on

So we are all adults together - some aged 60+ like me - without masks
Mostly panting and gasping for breath

I've been at the gym 5 days per week since they reopened on 16 May
and noone, customer or trainer, has ever worn a mask*

I avoid commenting but you can't compare people who actively choose to exercise indoors to teachers who have no real choice (the difference in choice to exercise and choice to work and get paid is not comparable) trainers are usually under 60 and those I know are training outside where possible. They are also exposed to a lower amount of people.
To compare the UK teachers lack of protection to people who cba to wear ppe is deplorable.
Fwiw I'm not a teacher, I work in risk assessment, and I do not know of any workplace that has so few precautions.

That article about why the pubs shut is interesting, many teachers spend 6 hours a day in a unventilated classroom.

@HoldingTight

Anyone else having problems with Twitter tonight? (Full disclosure: I may have called Jacob Rees-Mogg a cunt a couple of times today).

Yes, trouble loading pages (and I don't have an account so they can't be aware I've been calling JRM a cunt)

@IloveJKRowling in our large U.K. chain gym some PTs Wear a mask during training, it seems to be personal choice. When they first reopened they all were and it seemed mandated now it seems to be a choice. However, in classes the instructors are not and they have been told they’re not allowed to touch us to correct form.

Vaccine person on R4 it is annoying to have to battle with campaigns to undermine. Concerning if it has any impact.

Morfin yes.
There are so many tweaks that could be made, thin out student population, break up learning, get them outside no matter the weather, force everyone to at least air the room every hour, with one window remain open... Back up from slt... Mask walks!

I feel very much alone on this issue, it's like I am the only one along with slt who has the virus at the forefront of my mind.
Other people at work not so much and I'm feeling fed up that it's me on the front line, nagging, not being heard. I say not being heard, actually a student who was free sneezing last week actually made an effort to get it into the crook of his arm this week!

@Baaaahhhhh

I’m yet to see data which shows there was lower levels of compliance during the March lockdown + summer in Liverpool and Manchester when compared with other cities.

There may not be data, how do you measure compliance? But what other explanation is there, when other areas got their figures right down. Same rules, different outcome. In any event, it probably won't make much difference in the end, as we all, and I mean Europe, seem to have ended up, or will be soon, in the same place, with or without an early or strict lockdown, and with or without compliance.

I think your view is a bit simplistic. It may also be due to: Higher proportion in poor standard high density housing Higher proportion in public facing key worker roles Lower overall health levels ( maybe including levels of vit D?) etc

@Morfin

*Banned ? Well they wouldn't be able to work with a mask on Same as we can't train with masks on

So we are all adults together - some aged 60+ like me - without masks
Mostly panting and gasping for breath

I've been at the gym 5 days per week since they reopened on 16 May
and noone, customer or trainer, has ever worn a mask*

I avoid commenting but you can't compare people who actively choose to exercise indoors to teachers who have no real choice (the difference in choice to exercise and choice to work and get paid is not comparable) trainers are usually under 60 and those I know are training outside where possible. They are also exposed to a lower amount of people.
To compare the UK teachers lack of protection to people who cba to wear ppe is deplorable.
Fwiw I'm not a teacher, I work in risk assessment, and I do not know of any workplace that has so few precautions.

That article about why the pubs shut is interesting, many teachers spend 6 hours a day in a unventilated classroom.

.... The original question was abour gym trainers and staff

I was explaining they can't wear masks either, to do their job

and that they are working f2f with panting adult exercisers - who aren't forbidden but cba -
getting close, sometimes touching us to move position, check muscles are working etc

That would go also for any professional / semi-pro athletes working together, probably some staff too

Noone should ever have claimed schools are "Covid-secure"
because there is no such thing in any WOH job with other people around

It should have been acknowledged that teachers, like some other workers, have an increased risk at work than if they stayed home
Good employers reduce that risk at work as much as possible, but it will never be zero

Teachers in the UK are at higher risk than need be, because of govt decisions not to invest, not to mandate masks for students

We should be grateful for their public service, along with that of all the others continuing to WoH

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/927105/greater-manchester-dcmo-brief.pdf

Slides from the briefing from the deputy CMO to the Manchester MPs. Heat map shows increasing age of cases and rapid hospital admissions

Thank you for this - really shows the age groups where the problems start. Although would be useful if the govt stuck to the same age bands in all their data - sometimes it’s 0-9, 10-19 etc, sometimes 0-15, 16-29 sometimes it’s by school age grouping - very inconsistent

@Autumngoldleaf

Morfin yes. There are so many tweaks that could be made, thin out student population, break up learning, get them outside no matter the weather, force everyone to at least air the room every hour, with one window remain open... Back up from slt... Mask walks!

I feel very much alone on this issue, it's like I am the only one along with slt who has the virus at the forefront of my mind.
Other people at work not so much and I'm feeling fed up that it's me on the front line, nagging, not being heard. I say not being heard, actually a student who was free sneezing last week actually made an effort to get it into the crook of his arm this week!

You are not alone @Autumngoldleaf I have written to the Dept of Education, my local MPs, my children’s school urging them to do just what you have said - ventilation, ventilation, ventilation and masks masks masks! They are mixing classes, mixing kids for lunch, all totally unnecessarily. I am constantly wondering whether to pull him out but I do want him in education and it took years to get him to this school and I’d lose his place.

I have all the evidence to back this up = we know that ventilation, smaller groups and masks are our best barrier against transmission. The evidence on transmission between children is weak but we can’t take weakness for meaning that we have evidence that they rarely transmit - there is a lack of evidence rather than strong evidence that they don’t. A crucial distinction which seems to be overlooked completely.

One child is SN and it is like it’s gone out of the window as they have learning difficulties. It makes no sense at all. Teachers wearing visors sometimes which are worse than useless. There is no one with a hearing difficulty so no reason not to wear masks. Even my own severe SN son wears a mask with me when needed - it wasnt’ easy I grant you but he’s fine with it now and he’s primary school age - but they don’t want them to in school so he can’t.

Completely agree regarding the age bands.

It should be 0-4, 5-10, 10-16, 17-18 to fit in with schools. OR it should be groups of 10 years for all ages.

Otherwise it looks like data manipulation

Ice cream thank you.
Where I am really needs slt to come to each area and tell everyone what they need to do.
The message is being filtered down and what if the person filtering it, is very happy to stay as warm as possible over, the opening of a window?

The only way at the moment I can see ventilation being taken seriously is if a member of staff gets it and many are well into their late 60s!

The messages should be ventilate, space, face.

Teachers themselves need to layer up! I do!
I have a vest top, top, jumpers, etc proper socks! I'm warm!

Your poor dc.

@Autumngoldleaf same here.. thermal vest, thermal tights, leg warmers, wrist warmers and fingerless gloves.. even though the windows only open a max of 5 cm in the classroom.

If we're trying to get at primary Vs secondary Vs university, we don't need to mess around with age bands, the data is already there. As pointed out above, you have to enter your school or workplace into the test system, and PHE is reporting clusters/outbreaks by educational setting type.

Clusters don’t tell us the numbers though. A third of clusters in France are in school and University. But as these are huge establishments, it is probably to be expected they have more than one case often.

@IloveJKRowling
My families privately owned gym has no classes ATM they are currently banned (Scotland) to stop aerosols PT’s are doing 1-1 training wearing masks if they wish, clients are not touched instructions given by SD Instructions between client & PT wider spaced equipment than previously.
Members only ATM must book via new gym app for 1-1.5hrs capacity limited Equipment sanitised after each individual use.
Certainly feel safer there than some supermarkets and shops. There membership numbers has increased since opening.