Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

And that's exactly why we need a coherent national approach!

Even I fell (momentarily) for the distraction tactic... take the focus off the larger picture by singling out individual regions. Not good. Not at all. It serves only to stir up division and resentment - and it distracts from what's really needed. Decisive joined-up proactive national action.

@MarshaBradyo

What happened with Burnham and Manchester?

Is it more of the same tomorrow or has a tier been decided upon?

I saw part of the statement he read this afternoon. (I assume it was only part, difficult to tell)

All about what a disaster it would be for Man economy

I get it would be awful.... but I noted they didn't report him mention number of cases, hospitals being under stress or people dying 🤨🤨

Has the surveillance report been posted yet?

Interesting positivity rates in 10-19 year olds:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926846/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w42.pdf

Lots of people will end up in hospital whilst the government blames local leaders.

Burnhams problem is the government promised councils money in April and then they didnt cough it up so there is a massive financial blackhole in Manchester due to prolonged restrictions and having to foot the bill for local track and trace. This blackhole isnt going away regardless of who is in power. But Burnham is trying his best to get it back in the best intetests of the city. I have sympathy for that.

Meanwhile the Tory Mps want evidence that the proposed restrictions will solve the problem. I actually think its a fair point because will shutting the pubs just lead to people meeting up for illegal raves. In fairness i think the likes of Graham Brady have a point here. There was a well publicised incident of one in Carrington which is Brady's patch and there early hot spots in affluent Hale Barns weren't linked to pubs but private gatherings. The argument is that if pubs are policed better its a better option than closing them and having loads of illegal gatherings where people cant be traced. Again fair point.

I do feel that those in Manchester have been dealing with the issues for months. They know what's happening on the ground.

Meanwhile Westminster are just playing politics which isnt good for anyone in Manchester regardless of political divides. And are doing a good job of being 'out of touch'.

Nobody wins on this. The government seem to think its about them winning and forcing Manchester to back down. Its really not as simple as that.

[quote Piggywaspushed]Has the surveillance report been posted yet?

Interesting positivity rates in 10-19 year olds:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926846/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w42.pdf[/quote]
Yikes. Well spotted.

Problem with secondary schools there then.

Is this guy worthy of note? He does the heat maps?

This is the Twitter thread, but it starts with the grid in the pic.

twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1316770275875344385

And/or uni students. The surveillance report no longer splits down the education settings. Interestingly…

Given the mass testing going on at unis , I was surprised to see such a high positivity rate?

Working?

www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/statement-from-greater-manchester-leaders-on-new-tier-restrictions/
Full statement from GM leaders on why they are taking their particular statement.

Thanks again for all the great analysis and debate.

Does anyone know if there’s any kind of official trigger for moving tier or if the powers that be are going to let us know how they decide.

I’m in Bristol and we’re now consistently above 100 per 100k so assuming it must be coming soon. All the dithering feels very stressful

taking their particular stance.

Cant blame all the problems in London on deprivation when you have covidiots like these www.mylondon.news/news/west-london-news/southall-police-break-up-wedding-19111458

I dont bet but if I did it would be on that being a BAME wedding, so even more stupid.

I hope they are hit with a £10k fine.

@EducatingArti

www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/news/statement-from-greater-manchester-leaders-on-new-tier-restrictions/ Full statement from GM leaders on why they are taking their particular statement.

This is interesting. I agree with their bullet point tier 2 demands, they seem reasonable.

But at the end where they say:

All of this should be underpinned by a full financial package to support delivery. This includes a furlough scheme of at least 80% of wages offered to all businesses forced to close or severely affected and suffering a serious loss of trade due to restrictions.

Businesses should also be offered grant aid commensurate with actual losses incurred as a result of intervention. There should also be support, equivalent to that for employees, for self-employed and freelance workers.

We remain very concerned that some support and funding that are vital to all areas to reduce the Covid transmission rate are not available to Tier 1 and 2. We believe that’s a mistake. It should be offered to everyone as part of a proactive prevention plan. We would urge Government to rethink this.

Does this mean 80% at all tiers not just tier 3?

As this will cost fortune when it applies to the rest of the country too.

@RedToothBrush
I agree.

I just think the best solution is for the Westminster government to acknowledge their responsibilities (because ultimately it lies with them, as does the blame).

I believe the regionalisation of this is an unnecessary and confusing division.
People live and work across regions. Viruses travel through boundaries.

We need a joined up national approach. A coherent one. With strong decisive leadership. (That's us buggered then...!).

@alreadytaken

Cant blame all the problems in London on deprivation when you have covidiots like these www.mylondon.news/news/west-london-news/southall-police-break-up-wedding-19111458

I dont bet but if I did it would be on that being a BAME wedding, so even more stupid.

I hope they are hit with a £10k fine.

Why?

I mean why do you think it’s a BAME wedding?

@ancientgran

Our local fb page is asking people to forward the school outbreak letters to the local tag, people have started commenting on any Covid topic asking why are they ignoring the outbreaks. Two of my kids are teachers, one in a school that announced it was closing yesterday, I've checked local paper for the area (not my local area) and there is nothing about it.

I won't say the percentages as they are horrific and I know I will be asked for proof and as it isn't in the papers, on the school website and I don't have a letter as my child is a teacher not a pupil I can't provide any.

Have noticed exactly the same in Birmingham and Nottingham. Everything is being suppressed. Why if no transmissions to hide??

However, I disgree with the 1922 committee (who have their own short-termist greed blinding their agenda).
With that argument, why ban anything ever? Drugs? Lots and lots of people take drugs. So lets legalise them? (worthy of debate actually but that's derailing this topic). Let's get rid of all rules and close the prisons...because people ignore the rules?

On the last thread, I mentioned that I had been in touch with the Manchester Evening News who were reporting that Manchester had seen a large drop in rates, however they were not properly accounting for the lag and so were underreporting the rates.

I got a reply:

^You are absolutely right that there is an issue with the backdated test results. It means that we have been under-reporting the case numbers in recent days. This wasn't a problem previously, when nearly all the results were reported within three days, but in the last couple of weeks the number of incomplete results has gone up significantly. Since we started reporting the rates each day we have always taken the rate as the 7-day total per 100,000 population up to the date three days earlier. We decided to follow this process as it is the same one used by the government and the Greater Manchester Combined Authority when the infection rate is reported in official updates and we considered it best to avoid any confusion in the public by reporting the rate in the same way. Nearly all other media organisations have also reported the infection rates using the same process, so you will have seen the same infection rates for areas of Greater Manchester reported by the Press Association, BBC, Sky and other news outlets.
As you point out, there are often extra cases added for the more recent dates and this has become more of an issue in the last couple of weeks as the number of backdated test results has increased. It means that most days the infection rate is actually being under-reported, because as you point out - there are additional cases added in the next day. Yesterday, the Press Association switched to reporting the 7-day total up until four days earlier rather than three days and we have also decided to do the same.
So when we report the rates today, they will be for the 7 days up until October 11th. This will mean that the rates are still up-to-date and while there will be some backdated cases added later, it should be minimal. The backdated results are always what we refer to when we analyse trends and produce charts.^

Excellent!

@ceeveebee
I’m hopeful. Definitely downward trend in Manchester City and most of the other boroughs are either flattish or falling

[quote SheepandCow]@RedToothBrush
I agree.

I just think the best solution is for the Westminster government to acknowledge their responsibilities (because ultimately it lies with them, as does the blame).

I believe the regionalisation of this is an unnecessary and confusing division.
People live and work across regions. Viruses travel through boundaries.

We need a joined up national approach. A coherent one. With strong decisive leadership. (That's us buggered then...!).[/quote]
My life has been across 4 different areas of restrictions for the last few months. So we've had to know what the rules and excepts for each and every single one on that given day. And when youve potentially got multiple changes to multiple areas in a single week its a nightmare. Its not like we are madly socialising or even leaving the house much at all.

@BigBeanBag Southall and number of people attending.

@ChloeCrocodile

GMB just said some of the managers in Test track and trace on £1,500,000 a year.

I just don’t believe that. It’s what you get if you assume that the manager gets to keep all of the 7k per day consultancy rate and is able to charge it throughout the year. When I first started in consultancy the “day rate” was £550 for me. I got paid less than that weekly. The same was true of managers - their day rate was more like £1.5k but they didn’t get a salary of anything like that!

Agreed, they won’t get paid anywhere like that. Managers in consultancy firms in London earn about £60-80k!

Right, I missed the location in your post

@RedToothBrush @Piggywaspushed

The trouble with a 10-19 age band is that it wraps secondary school pupils in with college and university students so it's difficult to understand where the issue actually is.

The ONS report is now dividing age groups by reference to school year when reporting positive tests so that should give more insight in due course.