Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Shitfuckoh, I don't know the % for the children, we were talking about teachers and other colleagues and it is so drastic the school can't operate. It is a mixture of confirmed, waiting for results and isolating. They were doing fine till this week and happy that the first half term had gone well and then this started.

I hope your child is OK, it is a real worry isn't it. I've got 2 of mine teaching and 6 GC in school or nursery, all been fine since September but I feel like it is just inevitable that they will be affected one way or the other.

I think I'm on edge waiting for the test result, I hope it comes soon.

I missed many pages. could someone recap why this half arsed lockdown is going to work? Tier 2: everything is open, everyone mixing on buses to school and in school and taking it home. It doesn't seem like too much restriction...
And I still cannot fathom what is the point of a curfew.

Dr Nabarro was on Sky, he is very pro using local test trace and isolate.

@ancientgran

GMB just said some of the managers in Test track and trace on £1,500,000 a year.

I do hope there is a full investigation of what has gone on and this govt are held personally responsible for the money they have wasted.

And people say we can't afford to take effective containment measures?!

Clearly the money's there when the government wants to spend it.

Side note. Do these people have no self respect? Taking huge sums to fail to help contain an infectious virus that's proving as deadly to the economy as it is to individual human lives?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I missed many pages. could someone recap why this half arsed lockdown is going to work? Tier 2: everything is open, everyone mixing on buses to school and in school and taking it home. It doesn't seem like too much restriction... And I still cannot fathom what is the point of a curfew.

Put simply. It's not. (going to work).

could someone recap why this half arsed lockdown is going to work?
No, I'm not sure there is anybody who can.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I missed many pages. could someone recap why this half arsed lockdown is going to work? Tier 2: everything is open, everyone mixing on buses to school and in school and taking it home. It doesn't seem like too much restriction... And I still cannot fathom what is the point of a curfew.

We’ve just moved to tier 2. Still under 100 per 100k but I’m glad we have.

This evening I got a fair few cancellations for various things and alternatives.

I’d take slowing it down at this point.

@alreadytaken

More young people in London - but its interesting that there have been more than 10,000 admissions of younger people in London yet people still want to think it's "with covid" not "for covid". There will be some of those but this makes young people pretty sick, the average age in ICU is 60.

It will complicate their care whatever they are in for because of the blood clotting risk (and possibly for other reasons).

Good points.

Also, there are over one million pensioners in London.

Lots of younger Londoners have underlying conditions. Partly because of the deprivation in some parts of London. Remember too the high number of people from BAME communities in London. Aren't some groups more at risk of developing diabetes than white British?

There was an MP on R4 today stating that London shouldn’t all be tier 2 and it was too restrictive.

I don’t agree and am glad that apparently I’m in the lower zone still with tier 2, but whatever you do someone will want more, or less.

@alreadytaken

London was hit hard early on - admission rate to date 181.8 per 100,000 compared with 121.9 for England average.

It likely will be again.

9 million people (including 1 million over pension age), high density population, lots of deprivation and overcrowded housing, large numbers of rough sleepers, many under 65s with underlying conditions.

A virus's wet dream.

More people = more victims.

High density population = fast and easy spread.

GMB just said some of the managers in Test track and trace on £1,500,000 a year.

I just don’t believe that. It’s what you get if you assume that the manager gets to keep all of the 7k per day consultancy rate and is able to charge it throughout the year. When I first started in consultancy the “day rate” was £550 for me. I got paid less than that weekly. The same was true of managers - their day rate was more like £1.5k but they didn’t get a salary of anything like that!

What happened with Burnham and Manchester?

Is it more of the same tomorrow or has a tier been decided upon?

A lot of consultants work on a contract basis. They are encouraged to. In reality DEloitte might have a few partners working for 150k+ salary on a perm basis, a few juniors on 20k-30k and the rest on contracts. These contracts are usually 600-900/day,
If contractor is a company then they usually can take out about 70% of that money (pay+dividend).
If they are under an umbrella comp than it's more along the lines of 60%.

If they are contracted out by another agency (Epam for example as a big body shop) than there are still 2 options for the individual: 1. perm role for around 50-85k or 2)contract for about 350-500/day.

So it's not the actual individuals who get the annual 1.5m.

Real life example would be senior system designer engineer contractor on 450/day. The company he works for charges 1200/day for him.
I've worked as a consultant/pm for 300 to 600/day, so there is a huge variation.

Thanks for reassuring me that I've not missed anything, it's the usual smokescreen again.
I am really struggling to keep cheerful tbh. It is quite obvious where this will lead us, and you don't have to be Cassandra to see it.

@MarshaBradyo

What happened with Burnham and Manchester?

Is it more of the same tomorrow or has a tier been decided upon?

Reading the MEN it looks like Burnham ended up in an alliance with the Manchester Conservative MPs.

The government had decided on restrictions and told them they were going to impose them on Manchester.

And there was a unianamous cross party kick off between Manchester and Westminster.

Labour and the Manchester Tories had their own different reasons for doing so, but it sounds like both threatened legal action.

At which point the government appears to have backed off and said its still under negotiation.

So no one in Manchester is happy at all.

It sounds like a right mess and very poorly handled by Westminster who have chronically bad relationships with the north now as a result of all this.

Not without good reason too.

I get the French/English divide and competition, but it might be time to put that to rest. France's 30k today is a bit more than alarming.

@ChloeCrocodile

London is the only part of the country where hospital admissions are more common in the under 65 age group than the 65-84 age band.

How does the age distribution of the general population in London compare to the rest of the UK?

It's more the sheer numbers. Percentages per population of areas usually fail to take into account numbers of each population.

So an area with 20 people and 15 are over over 65 will proportionally have more over 65s than London. But of course, with 9 million people, London still has by far more elderly people than anywhere else.

As for the high admissions under 65.
London has some of the most deprived areas in the whole country (the ONS report from the first wave covered this). High density poor housing and very high levels of homelessness. SAGE had a report about how poor overcrowded housing affects risks re Covid.

Red thanks, but also incredible. Feels like strong politics in action of some sort.

@ancientgran hope all goes well

I had a skim catch up read of this thread and the previous one.

Re the talk yesterday of health/lives Vs economy. The IMF have warned it's impossible to have a healthy functioning economy without containing Covid.

It's pretty obvious. All the countries who've taken effective containment measures have better economies.

@MarshaBradyo

Red thanks, but also incredible. Feels like strong politics in action of some sort.

No its a complete car crash.

What do you think will happen?

I worry that with all the talk in the media of 'the North' the NE is being overlooked?
Heavy focus on the NW.
Have the numbers stabilised/started to fall in the NE (outside of universities)?
I'm not so sure there's any local money in the NE to fund restrictions...not when paying your council tax seems to be voluntary there...

I’ve just caught up and RTFT after a busy day at work when I didn’t even get a chance to look at the 4pm data!
I wonder whether Andy Burnham will be able to drag this out long enough that we avoid tier 3 in GM at all, as Manchester is now declining reasonably quickly (16% down week on week) and going down or growing much more slowly in the other GM boroughs

@ceeveebee

I’ve just caught up and RTFT after a busy day at work when I didn’t even get a chance to look at the 4pm data! I wonder whether Andy Burnham will be able to drag this out long enough that we avoid tier 3 in GM at all, as Manchester is now declining reasonably quickly (16% down week on week) and going down or growing much more slowly in the other GM boroughs

CORRECTION: Trafford down 16%, Manchester down 33%