Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@RedToothBrush

BCF I guestimate the number of students in school in Liverpool is around 62,650 if you use reception to yr11 (and exclude sixth forms).

Teaching and Support Staff is around 7,634.

So on the basis of the following:

Yesterday the city's chief education officer said 21,619 pupils and 1,294 staff had been forced to isolate since schools returned at the beginning of September, with 878 positive cases reported among staff and students at primary and secondary schools across the city.

As of yesterday, 476 teachers and 7,915 students were currently isolating.

From that calculation that would make about 12% of pupils are currently isolating (but it might be slightly lower if sixth form included at some schools) and 6% of staff are currently isolating.

Since September it appears about a third of pupils (see cavet above) have been affected by school closures and 1/6 of staff.

Schools have accounted for a significant number of cases, with 878 pupils testing positive since the start of term. A further 21,619 pupils out of 75,000 across the city have been sent home to learn remotely since term started at the start of last month. via Liverpool Echo.

So revise the above to 10% of pupils currently isolating and just under a third of pupils who have been sent home since September.

sorry makes some young people very sick - brain and fingers not together.

and I made the liverpool figure over 20% of teachers, since figures were given specifically for them.

@alreadytaken

and I made the liverpool figure over 20% of teachers, since figures were given specifically for them.

It could well be. Even giving the benefit of the doubt 6% is high.

or because London has a lower % of over 65s in the population ?

UK: 65+ is 18.6% of the population
Inner London: 7%
Outer London: 13.6%

Data from 2018. UK source
www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
London source
www.trustforlondon.org.uk/data/population-age-groups/#:~:text=The%20largest%20five%2Dyear%20age,in%20the%20rest%20of%20England.

First 100 death day by date of occurrence for four months (Sunday 11th). 7 day average up to 86.

764 COVID patients admitted in England.
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1316770738620239874

[quote ChloeCrocodile]or because London has a lower % of over 65s in the population ?

UK: 65+ is 18.6% of the population
Inner London: 7%
Outer London: 13.6%

Data from 2018. UK source
www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
London source
www.trustforlondon.org.uk/data/population-age-groups/#:~:text=The%20largest%20five%2Dyear%20age,in%20the%20rest%20of%20England.[/quote]
...
Thx !
I thought I remembered London had a younger pop than rUK

@tootyfruitypickle

I heard on the news that the figure for going into tier 2 is 100 cases per 100,000. Much of London is below that, but some areas are above, so it's been treated as one region, fair enough.

Where I live, we are well above 100, but not included in tier 2, we're staying at tier 1 (but not far from London ).

It's obviously not as simple as looking at crude figures, presumably the pattern of infection (based on local intel) is crucial also .

According to Covid Messenger today my area is 109/100,000 (compared to 49 for the previous 7 days) - we are still tier 1, although our (brilliant) local MP has been updating residents via social media about the rising infection rate and asking us to 'stick to the rules' etc. Lots of cases in local schools here, including the two secondary schools that my 3 older dc attend - in fact my year 9 ds was sent home at lunchtime today as a result of a positive case. Previously they have sent only close contacts home but this time it was the whole year group, due to an extended period (over a week!) from when the student first had symptoms and the receipt of a positive test. So potentially lots of time for spread throughout the year group.

Now I've fallen down the "age distribution" rabbit hole, ONS have a map where you can see the proportion of the population by age (under 16, 16-64 and 65+). I can't do pictures because I'm not good at computers, but it is at the bottom of this ONS page.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/august2019

London was hit hard early on - admission rate to date 181.8 per 100,000 compared with 121.9 for England average.

figures for 18-84 age band

This from the critical care team at Aintree Hospital (in Liverpool for non-Nw people)...

1/This account was created in the summer purely to celebrate good news stories and positive feedback about our unit. We were proud of our team and how they had responded to unprecedented challenges in the first wave of COVID. Criticism should not be anonymous and is not our role.
2/Sadly we find ourselves doing COVID again and in the centre of national discussions.
•The current situation on ICU is not normal.
•Our standard capacity for ventilated patients is full, we are coping by expanding again to other areas and using non critical care staff
3/•It is not caused by other respiratory viruses. Flu is not the cause of the current situation.
•What happens out in the city or country is decided by politicians and how we all choose to behave.
•In hospital we deal with the consequences of those actions without judgement.

4/•Our patients are not people expected to die soon. The average age of ICU admissions with COVID in the UK is 59 and most are well beforehand.
•All of our patients caught coronavirus out of hospital.
•Treatments and care have improved.
5/•Sadly people are dying and will die of COVID.
•Those deaths may be you, or if you are young, your relative.
•You cannot simplistically choose between COVID and non COVID care.
6/•Ignoring COVID does not mean other work can just happen. We must try and do both. At some point this will not be possible.
•Nightingale hospitals may be helpful but are not the solution to all the problems.
•We are likely to run out of staff before we run out of equipment.

The PCR tests were over 295,000 today, that's the highest I've seen. Good to see the capacity is edging up.

We are likely to run out of staff before we run out of equipment.

That's terrible. I feel so very sorry for the staff.

UK

Case doubling continues to roughly fit to a 9-day curve (chart from Richard@RP131 UK)

Rolling 7-day average of deaths is now 100.1

It roughly fits 9 day doubling, but maybe tailing off a little (even allowing for the lag)?

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

This from the critical care team at Aintree Hospital (in Liverpool for non-Nw people)...

1/This account was created in the summer purely to celebrate good news stories and positive feedback about our unit. We were proud of our team and how they had responded to unprecedented challenges in the first wave of COVID. Criticism should not be anonymous and is not our role.
2/Sadly we find ourselves doing COVID again and in the centre of national discussions.
•The current situation on ICU is not normal.
•Our standard capacity for ventilated patients is full, we are coping by expanding again to other areas and using non critical care staff
3/•It is not caused by other respiratory viruses. Flu is not the cause of the current situation.
•What happens out in the city or country is decided by politicians and how we all choose to behave.
•In hospital we deal with the consequences of those actions without judgement.

4/•Our patients are not people expected to die soon. The average age of ICU admissions with COVID in the UK is 59 and most are well beforehand.
•All of our patients caught coronavirus out of hospital.
•Treatments and care have improved.
5/•Sadly people are dying and will die of COVID.
•Those deaths may be you, or if you are young, your relative.
•You cannot simplistically choose between COVID and non COVID care.
6/•Ignoring COVID does not mean other work can just happen. We must try and do both. At some point this will not be possible.
•Nightingale hospitals may be helpful but are not the solution to all the problems.
•We are likely to run out of staff before we run out of equipment.

That is a chilling message, but also refreshing to see such honesty. I'm so sick of the political blathering and igniting the truth

Or even ignoring the truth!

@cathyandclare

It roughly fits 9 day doubling, but maybe tailing off a little (even allowing for the lag)?

Yes, fairly close: mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1316768463864635393

Our local fb page is asking people to forward the school outbreak letters to the local tag, people have started commenting on any Covid topic asking why are they ignoring the outbreaks. Two of my kids are teachers, one in a school that announced it was closing yesterday, I've checked local paper for the area (not my local area) and there is nothing about it.

I won't say the percentages as they are horrific and I know I will be asked for proof and as it isn't in the papers, on the school website and I don't have a letter as my child is a teacher not a pupil I can't provide any.

@cathyandclare

It roughly fits 9 day doubling, but maybe tailing off a little (even allowing for the lag)?

Yes, I noted yesterday that from 5th October onwards it is looking reasonably flat (ignoring the lag period) by specimen date. Probably too early to say anything conclusive but better than an obvious rise at this stage!

@ancientgran

Our local fb page is asking people to forward the school outbreak letters to the local tag, people have started commenting on any Covid topic asking why are they ignoring the outbreaks. Two of my kids are teachers, one in a school that announced it was closing yesterday, I've checked local paper for the area (not my local area) and there is nothing about it.

I won't say the percentages as they are horrific and I know I will be asked for proof and as it isn't in the papers, on the school website and I don't have a letter as my child is a teacher not a pupil I can't provide any.

Do you mind me asking what the percentages are? I ask as my DC attends a special school setting. We've had 2 letters regarding cases in 2 days and 1 text this evening to state another case but no need for further children to isolate. I'm already having to isolate with my pre-schooler due to a case in his nursery setting.

@cathyandclare

It roughly fits 9 day doubling, but maybe tailing off a little (even allowing for the lag)?

... I think week-on-week has increased 50% Maybe rate of increase is slowing, but too early to say

Rolling 7-day averages for the 4 nations from Richard@RP131 UK
NI curve showing why they are going into lockdown

Oops, missed the earlier post (chart already posted).

We are likely to see cycles of slowdowns and then rising again as we progress through Autumn and into winter
< cheerful bugger emoticon >