Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Why was the dashboard updated just before midnight when the days data came out at 4pm? What changed?

I heard on the news that the figure for going into tier 2 is 100 cases per 100,000. Much of London is below that, but some areas are above, so it's been treated as one region, fair enough.

Where I live, we are well above 100, but not included in tier 2, we're staying at tier 1 (but not far from London ).

It's obviously not as simple as looking at crude figures, presumably the pattern of infection (based on local intel) is crucial also .

No cases at all in my dd's secondary (assuming I would know, perhaps not, but definitely no years groups have been out at any point despite our cases rocketing in recent weeks). Which does point to perhaps there being something about cases located in one area of the borough - and perhaps that is how some boroughs are staying out of tier 2 despite having cases above 100 - presumably other measures are being brought in locally for specific areas, i'm assuming isolation of certain workplaces etc?

I'm so intrigued about the detective work behind tracing cases locally.

@LarkDescending

From the last line of the quoted passage it seems it should be 77, not 677, on ventilators.

... yes, CORRECTION stray 6 came in as you see from the charts

There are not - yet ! - 677 patients on ventilation in all UK

What I note is that most days also have NHS notification of deaths from previous days
In addition to the daily headline number, I mean

So looks like these daily dash numbers are only provisional for a few days until more get added for the same day
Presumably delayed tests, autopsy results etc that confirm Covid

e.g. issued today again

COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

NHS England reported 81 COVID-19 hospital deaths that occurred over 14 dates.

43 were reported last Thursday.

and on yesterday too:

NHS England reported 68 more COVID-19 hospital deaths that occurred over 8 dates:

9 = 13th Oct (1d ago)
36 = 12th Oct (2d ago)
11 = 11th Oct (3d ago)
3 = 10th Oct (4d ago)
6 = 9th Oct (5d ago)
1 = 8th Oct (6d ago)
1 = 5th Oct (9d ago)
1 = 2nd Oct (12d ago)

54 reported last Weds

I'm slightly worried that they haven't even started today's update....

London is the only part of the country where hospital admissions are more common in the under 65 age group than the 65-84 age band.

How does the age distribution of the general population in London compare to the rest of the UK?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'm slightly worried that they haven't even started today's update....

Yep, already suspecting the person running the updates is back hiding under their desk with a bottle of wine again.

I have an awful feeling today is going to be higher then 20,000

@tootyfruitypickle I'm a teacher and they're not even telling us if there are cases in classes we don't teach so it's likely you wouldn't know if there were cases or not. Most schools are still keeping bubbles in and just sending home pupils who have been sat near the positive cases. We had 4 cases in one of our bubbles in the space of 2 days and the bubble stayed in.

I find it interesting the media have been relatively mute about schools since we've been back!

I keep checking but have they moved to waiting until almost midnight to update as the last update was 11.28pm on 14/10/20 ?

Do we suspect that they're double checking that pesky spreadsheet due to exceptionally low or exceptionally high figures ?

Bbc reporting they have been told that the Welsh Government are going to announce a short circuit breaker in the next few days.

@starterforeight

I keep checking but have they moved to waiting until almost midnight to update as the last update was 11.28pm on 14/10/20 ?

Do we suspect that they're double checking that pesky spreadsheet due to exceptionally low or exceptionally high figures ?

They were out at the normal time yesterday so God knows what's going on.

@RedToothBrush

Bbc reporting they have been told that the Welsh Government are going to announce a short circuit breaker in the next few days.

That does not surprise me. They will not want half term tourists. I’m expecting Scotland to say the same.

18,980 cases. The update has started.

18,980 new cases today.

London is the only part of the country where hospital admissions are more common in the under 65 age group than the 65-84 age band

Which is a possible indicator that a higher proportion of the London admissions are with covid, not from covid - those stats would be so valuable. Obviously covid could be a huge complicator for someone admitted for some things, but it's also likely irrelevant for other admissions.

mog.. I find that absolutely staggering!

Re not sending more than dc home!
Some schools send home the entire bubble! Some don't..

Deaths 138

UK today

(yesterday, then last few days in brackets)

Cases 18,980 ..... (19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 138 ..... ( 137, 143, 50, 65, 81, 87)

@Mogtheforgetfulmum

I find it interesting the media have been relatively mute about schools since we've been back!

Our local fb page is asking people to forward the school outbreak letters to the local tag, people have started commenting on any Covid topic asking why are they ignoring the outbreaks.

@sirfredfredgeorge

London is the only part of the country where hospital admissions are more common in the under 65 age group than the 65-84 age band

Which is a possible indicator that a higher proportion of the London admissions are with covid, not from covid - those stats would be so valuable. Obviously covid could be a huge complicator for someone admitted for some things, but it's also likely irrelevant for other admissions.

.... or because London has a lower % of over 65s in the population ?

Someone may indeed go to hospital with something else that is very survivable,
but Covid, or Covid combined with that is what kills them

However much some people wish otherwise,
these 65,000 excess deaths in the UK were nearly all because of Covid and would not have happened otherwise

More young people in London - but its interesting that there have been more than 10,000 admissions of younger people in London yet people still want to think it's "with covid" not "for covid". There will be some of those but this makes young people pretty sick, the average age in ICU is 60.

It will complicate their care whatever they are in for because of the blood clotting risk (and possibly for other reasons).