Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

cathy That's why is posted "gym goers- not just members"

Gyms make a lot of money from people who go twice in January,
indeed now too from some who are normally regulars but are staying away over this crisis

@RedToothBrush

Also Liverpool: www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/dire-situation-hit-liverpool-within-19107437

It comes as city leaders revealed that critical care and intensive care units at Liverpool's hospitals was now running at 80% capacity.

Yesterday the city's chief education officer said 21,619 pupils and 1,294 staff had been forced to isolate since schools returned at the beginning of September, with 878 positive cases reported among staff and students at primary and secondary schools across the city.

As of yesterday, 476 teachers and 7,915 students were currently isolating.

Only one school among around 200 in the city has not been forced to send kids home as a result of a positive case.

Wow.

... How many pupils & staff are there in Liverpool ?

to get some idea if how proportional 878 positives are, wrt community infection level

Are pubs in London screening the Everton V Liverpool game on Saturday?(K.O. 12.30)

I'm generally against a national lockdown as it really shouldn't be necessary and is overkill for huge swathes of the country but unfortunately I think it's now the only option because the government have demonstrated that they're not capable of organising anything else.

The basic stuff is still just not working well enough. DS2 woke up with a cold (and accompanying cough) so we have all been tested this morning and told 24 to 72 hours for results which is ridiculous. It shouldn't be taking up to 3 days to tell people if they are positive or not. DS1 (who is perfectly well) is missing school and he almost certainly doesn't need to be. The reality is that lots of people just won't self isolate and/or will avoid testing when this is what they are faced with when they try to do what has been asked of them.

You can have all the restrictions and fines you like but if you're not able to get the basics right you might as well not bother.

In my view they need to speed testing up massively and cut the isolation period to 7 days. What they are doing now just isn't working.

The reality is that lots of people just won't self isolate and/or will avoid testing

A school local to me has already had a kid in school following a test but without a result. They found out when she got a message in the middle of the day to say it was positive and she let her form tutor know.

Sorry - just realised that was anecdotal and about schools! Won't happen again.

@pussycatinboots

Are pubs in London screening the Everton V Liverpool game on Saturday?(K.O. 12.30)

Which I assume is on Sky so only limited people have access.? This should be postponed or put on free to air channels.

@IloveKJRowling, thanks for the kind wishes. They got a test this morning and now teaching online. School is closed as so many teachers off, hopefully they will only miss a couple of days this week and then next week and then half term for a week. By the time half term is over things will hopefully have calmed down.

I wonder how long it is taking for tests to come back? I guess I will find out soon enough.

Bcf

2,065 secondary teachers and 2,100 primary teacher (doesn't say other teaching staff or support staff) in Liverpool in 2019.

Source .gov.uk data on performance.

oh sorry it does have other staff

secondary 371 TAs
primary 1,803 TAs

secondary 644 support staff
primary 651 support staff

You may need to guestimate the number of children. Last year there were 5221 children at the end of key stage 2.

So that times 12 (all year groups including reception).

Regulus Exactly. They won't, but they should.

Data update for Manchester City Council:

Sunday 4 October to Saturday 10 October 2020

The most up-to-date and complete information we have is for Sunday 4 October to Saturday 10 October. In this period there were:

2,484 people with a newly confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 living in Manchester (a rate of 449.3 per 100,000 population). In the previous 7 day period there were 3,224 people with a newly confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 living in Manchester (a rate of 583.2 per 100,000)
16,548 tests conducted in non-NHS laboratories (Pillar 2 Tests) - a rate of 2,993 tests per 100,000 population. In the previous week, 19,878 tests were conducted - a rate of 3,595 per 100,000 population.
Of the 16,548 tests conducted, 17.8% resulted in a positive diagnosis. This compares with 22.9% of tests conducted in the previous weeks.

In the week ending 2 October, there were 10 deaths involving COVID-19 in Manchester residents. Overall, 447 Manchester residents have died from conditions involving COVID-19.

This information is correct at the point this page was last updated on 14 October 2020.

This is very much on a par with Liverpool.

These big councils seem to have the capacity and knowledge to take over public health, t&t etc if they are given budget and full test data

Triage calls down from September high, especially wrt children

(from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

The latest data relating to the triage of COVID-19 symptoms through NHS Pathways 111, 999 and 111 online.

19,480 triages/journeys were completed over the last two days, of which:

1,074 were aged 70+ yrs
3,420 were aged 0-18 yrs
14,976 were aged 19-69 yrs
10 age unknown

London

Clear difference to NW atm, but situation worsening rapidly in London
Hence Tier 2

COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

On the 12th October, 67 people were admitted to hospital in London with COVID-19,
92% lower than at the peak on the 30th of March.

As of 14th October, 389 people were in hospital in London with COVID-19,
92% lower than the peak on the 8th of April where 4,813 were in hospital.

Over the last 2 weeks the number of people in hospital increased 46% from 266 to 389.

As of 14th October, 677 people were in mechanical ventilation beds in London^ with COVID-19.
1,057 people were in ventilation beds at the peak on the 10th of April.

Over the last 2 weeks^ the number of people in ventilation beds increased 60% from 48 to 77.

TravellingTabby has added a couple of new graphs for Scottish Cases

Attached

Local press reporting just under 1000 positive cases at Durham Uni this week. Not sure how that compares against this weeks figures county wide but that's a big number in one setting!

The government database shows 77 people in mechanical ventilation beds in London. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

London is the only part of the country where hospital admissions are more common in the under 65 age group than the 65-84 age band.

I wouldnt have put London into tier 2 this week.

@BigChocFrenzy

London

Clear difference to NW atm, but situation worsening rapidly in London
Hence Tier 2

COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

On the 12th October, 67 people were admitted to hospital in London with COVID-19,
92% lower than at the peak on the 30th of March.

As of 14th October, 389 people were in hospital in London with COVID-19,
92% lower than the peak on the 8th of April where 4,813 were in hospital.

Over the last 2 weeks the number of people in hospital increased 46% from 266 to 389.

As of 14th October, 677 people were in mechanical ventilation beds in London^ with COVID-19.
1,057 people were in ventilation beds at the peak on the 10th of April.

Over the last 2 weeks^ the number of people in ventilation beds increased 60% from 48 to 77.

Have they made a mistake somewhere in here?

389 Covid patients in London hospitals, but 677 on ventilators on 14 Oct?

From the last line of the quoted passage it seems it should be 77, not 677, on ventilators.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1316747957786509314?s=21

ECDC uploaded incorrect data this morning and then corrected it without announcing the error. Good info graphic of the data correction on here,

BCF I guestimate the number of students in school in Liverpool is around 62,650 if you use reception to yr11 (and exclude sixth forms).

Teaching and Support Staff is around 7,634.

So on the basis of the following:

Yesterday the city's chief education officer said 21,619 pupils and 1,294 staff had been forced to isolate since schools returned at the beginning of September, with 878 positive cases reported among staff and students at primary and secondary schools across the city.

As of yesterday, 476 teachers and 7,915 students were currently isolating.

From that calculation that would make about 12% of pupils are currently isolating (but it might be slightly lower if sixth form included at some schools) and 6% of staff are currently isolating.

Since September it appears about a third of pupils (see cavet above) have been affected by school closures and 1/6 of staff.