Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Holiday and quarantine is more obvious. But someone getting NHS trace call who would know.

Glad about Tier 2 for London

That Merseyside gym received £1,000 fine for refusing to close, then raised £24,000+ on GoFundMe for future legal battles

I wonder if that is just an angry / desperate gym owner, or an organised / political attempt to fight SD measures in general

@IrenetheQuaint

Does anyone know if there is any evidence of local lockdowns actually working? I think Leicester brought its numbers down a bit over the summer, possibly through better workplace enforcement rather than via restrictions on household mixing.

The Aberdeen local lockdown in August brought cases right down in 3 weeks. It was the strictest I think there has been - all bars completely closed, no household mixing indoors, 5 mile travel limit.

However, it was very much a case of hitting hard and early. Cases were under 20 per 100k at the time, I believe.

It's hard to say if it was justified. It certainly worked, but a number of hospitality venues on the city have since closed for good, as there was very little support. Would the cluster have burned out anyway with decent contact tracing? Hard to say.

Assuming talks continue (and they eventually agree something) will Hancock have to go back to the commons to announce it and if so, are we to assume that that won’t be today? The continuous back and forth is really dragging people down, with a continuous “your rules are about to change” message that has been hanging over for the past couple of weeks now

@IrenetheQuaint the local lockdown enacted in certain postcode areas in Ballymena in NI in August/Early Sept. was very effective with the executive noting that cases had decreased by 50% in a week. Sadly other areas in NI now have a huge problem including in 63 care homes (which must be a very high percentage of total)

@BigChocFrenzy

That Merseyside gym received £1,000 fine for refusing to close, then raised £24,000+ on GoFundMe for future legal battles

I wonder if that is just an angry / desperate gym owner, or an organised / political attempt to fight SD measures in general

And who are supporting him, the it's just flu brigade or people that do believe in Covid and do believe in SD but feel that shutting gyms is without any proof?

@BigChocFrenzy

That Merseyside gym received £1,000 fine for refusing to close, then raised £24,000+ on GoFundMe for future legal battles

I wonder if that is just an angry / desperate gym owner, or an organised / political attempt to fight SD measures in general

I think they are desparate tbh. If they close they can't carry on indefinitely with no income and the business will simply fold.

There's been a few gyms on the local news saying similar. The argument they are using to support them (and on basis of the SAGE advice) is that transmissions in gyms are really low.

Utimately the government are going to have to figure out how to handle this.

There have also been some reports that some people are flouting the laws for Weddings by factoring the fine as part of the cost of the Wedding!

So yes, there does become a point at which enforcement / compliance breaks down if the punishment isn't a sufficient deterrent to just carrying on with life.

I think we will see a lot more of this happening too tbh.

If the demand for the gym is higher than the cost of a fine, then businesses will just stay open as there is no incentive to shut.

Report published 15th October 2020
Cases data from week 6th-12th October 2020

Data extracted covering testing up to 12th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 3266, an increase of 374 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 655.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 18.4%.

Holding steady...

Between 08 - 14 October 2020 there were 142 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 23% (n=33) were Covid-19 deaths.

Thats the second day at 23% (was just over 20% earlier in the week).

I wonder if that is just an angry / desperate gym owner, or an organised / political attempt to fight SD measures in general

If you look at the gofundme page it seems to be both. A gym owner angry at being closed as he doesn't believe that gyms contribute significantly to the spread but closing them does harm people.

I’m not surprised at gym etc

Whitty was right when he said we would do it for a while but not ages.

Also hearing general gym spokesperson on R4 he put forward a good case

I agree Marsha, he made a compelling p1.3% of cases, but offer so much in fighting obesity and maintaining physical and mental health.

I deleted half of that-
He made a compelling case, gyms account for 1.3% of cases ...

@RedToothBrush

If the demand for the gym is higher than the cost of a fine, then businesses will just stay open as there is no incentive to shut.

... unless there are criminal penalties

Any establishment can be forcibly closed down and blocked off by the authorities if they really want to

• in the UK, that might mean additional powers being needed, I don't know

In Germany, defiance ultimately - for repeat offenders - means jail
but fines would mount up rapidly before then
and I'd expect the establishment would just be padlocked and blocked off

@cathyandclare

I deleted half of that- He made a compelling case, gyms account for 1.3% of cases ...

.... We would need to have the stats for the number & frequency of gym goers - not just members

In comparison to schools with daily millions - 12 million ? - the incidence per person at gyms may even be higher
We don't know

Then it would depend on whether it is the risk of the individual gym goer that decides rules,
or the total risk they present to the outside community, a risk which may be low, because of lower relative numbers

T2 for the following from 00.01 Saturday

The areas to go into high alert restrictions this weekend are:

London
Essex
Elmbridge in Surrey
Barrow in Furness, Cumbria
York
North East Derbyshire
Chesterfield
Erewash, Derbyshire

Either the rules need to be changed to exclude gyms, or the rules for this gym need to be enforced

Otherwise pubs, restaurants, hotels, shops etc will copy this defiance
and any rules on opening hours or SD that reduce profits can be ignored at will by businesses

@BigChocFrenzy

Either the rules need to be changed to exclude gyms, or the rules for this gym need to be enforced

Otherwise pubs, restaurants, hotels, shops etc will copy this defiance
and any rules on opening hours or SD that reduce profits can be ignored at will by businesses

You'd probably have to factor in the people who pay and don't go apart from in January too

On that note BCF...

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/famous-liverpool-comedy-club-able-19106828
Famous Liverpool comedy club is able to stay open despite tier three lockdown

In the post, the team at Hot Water Comedy Club said that closing would “disqualify us from any form of Government grants” and “most importantly not protect our staff as they would not qualify for the 2/3 furlough scheme”.

Instead, the venue will open its doors tomorrow with a number of measures in place to ensure the space is ‘Covid-safe’.

The team has implemented a one-way system, placed hand sanitising units throughout, put temperature checks in place for customers and staff and more.

Visitors are encouraged to check local guidance before visiting and to book as a single household.

The full post on Facebook read: “Hot Water Comedy Club has assessed the current tier 3 government guidance for Liverpool and as we fall under the 'entertainment venue' sector which is not currently closed we will be open again ‪from Friday 16th October‬.

“We have spoken to licensing and the local council and have let them know that we’re opening this weekend.
The venue is considered an 'entertainment venue' rather than a bar

Also Liverpool:
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/dire-situation-hit-liverpool-within-19107437

It comes as city leaders revealed that critical care and intensive care units at Liverpool's hospitals was now running at 80% capacity.

Yesterday the city's chief education officer said 21,619 pupils and 1,294 staff had been forced to isolate since schools returned at the beginning of September, with 878 positive cases reported among staff and students at primary and secondary schools across the city.

As of yesterday, 476 teachers and 7,915 students were currently isolating.

Only one school among around 200 in the city has not been forced to send kids home as a result of a positive case.

Wow.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-54551207

Liverpool considering remote teaching for a week after half term, in a localised circuit break

UK’s National Institute for Health Research (NIHR): Long Covid

Informative

evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedreview/living-with-covid19/

How long would it take to drive/use public transportation from the most populous areas of Liverpool to a vibrant town/city that is in tier one?