Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Burnham was going to do a press conference now. But thats been cancelled.

It now being reported that 'no decision has been made' and that Hancock will not make an announcement on Manchester nor Lancashire today.

Piss up. Brewery.

The local teams soon find someone who knows someone, even when false details are given

You'd be surprised how many people can be tracked by a trained local team, even if they think they are anonymous and have left false details

• it takes time though and fines are given for that

Also, it's surprising how many people know your name that you may not think of, or can remember useful details about you
have you been seen near a gym, pool etc
check up with local doctors
CCTV - especially useful for UK local teams, since there are so many cameras

Have you ever reserved a place anywhere that took your name - softplay, theatre, meals out
e.g. at my 2 fav restaurants, where I almost always go alone, after I booked a table once, they have both addressed me by name for every subsequent visit

@MarshaBradyo

Do you mean I would know if my neighbour was meant to be SI but went to work? I wouldn’t have a clue if someone on this street was meant to be SI. They just wouldn’t have to tell me they had received a call in the first place.

Or do you mean it leaks another way?

... A local team would be checking if you stayed home with a daily call checking your phone's location If they are dubious, then send round someone, possibly the police

One of the first things they can do is inform your employer

I'd expect UK teams would have these tactics too, as well as the avantage of the most exxtensive CCTV network anywhere in the West

Yes all the time. I leave my details, the correct ones, every time.

But I don’t show ID, you don’t have to.

If on public transport I doubt someone who works in London could find me just because they are local though.

Then given they do find me call me and I say yes. I will do that, but not all do.

I’m not advocating any if this btw, far from it, the opposite. Just thinking about the leaky bucket and how you have to fix it

@RedToothBrush that's ridiculous. I wish they would make decisions and announce them to start from then. Pissing about isn't helping anyone. To me it's fairly obvious both need to be in tier 3 but 🤷🏽‍♀️

A local team would be checking if you stayed home with a daily call checking your phone's location

Ok this would be the changer. We’re not great at this part and would have to ramp up. But do they have to be local if it’s via your phone?

I'm placing my 5p it's cancelled because we're getting a circuit breaker from tomorrow night. Too much of the country has uncomfortably high rates.
I owe 5p into the kitty from figures gambling, this is my chance to make it back!

@MRex this thread is for data not gambling ()!

Actually that's a very interesting point @MRex ....

Be great to hear those conversations bet they’ve been intense

Greater London and Essex moving to Tier 2

Maybe means no circuit breaker for now

@MarshaBradyo

A local team would be checking if you stayed home with a daily call checking your phone's location

Ok this would be the changer. We’re not great at this part and would have to ramp up. But do they have to be local if it’s via your phone?

... The advantage of a local team is that it can be the same people allocated to check up on someone and see if they are sounding more dodgy

They know if there are special events nearby that might tempt people out, theatre or a large family clebration

• this applies more in Germany where until recently (legal) crowds of 300 at weddings have been allowed

plus some sports events e.g. those 10,000 watching Dortmund

If they want to send someone round in person to check, easier connectivity with local teams

btw, The call is also to check if thye are ill and if symptoms are getting worse, to see if they need a health team home visit

I'm wondering if local circuit breakers are value for money
whether if there has to be a circuit breaker, it should be national

Either that, or roadblocks to seal off areas

Yes I can see that sending someone round is the point it departs.

We have so many cases of stated funding to help with various things that don’t really materialise but it would need actual people on foot where needed. Our quarantine us equally light compared with other countries.

Hancock live in the commons making a statement now

@ChloeCrocodile

Sky reporting that people running test track and trace getting paid £7,000 per day.

I think this is a slight misuse of data. The consultancy day rate is up to £7k per day. That isn't how much the individual is getting paid.

Agreed. I’m big 4 and the employees don’t get £7000 a day or anywhere near and managers do not earn £100k+ (to the pp who said this). Senior Mangers do but there would be a spread of roles working on this.

Obviously hard bargaining for financial support by several local mayors and probably MPs delaying announcements

Probably demands for local control of t&t = and budget - too, by those with the trained manpower to do this

@MarshaBradyo

If my local public health team posted contact details on local communication sites they would be informed of anyone who'd been on holiday and was not self isolating. They would be told of people who were in a pub known to have had an outbreak or who had been in a shop/ worked in a business with an outbreak. I've lived in large towns where I know the same thing would happen, and just as quickly, for anyone who had lived there for some time.

Even parts of London are village like, you might be surprised.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-london-to-move-into-tier-2-of-lockdown-system-millions-to-be-banned-from-mixing-indoors-12104407

London mayor Sadiq Khan said COVID-19 is "spreading rapidly in every corner of our city", with a "significant number" of boroughs reporting an average of 100 cases per 100,000 people.

The London-wide average infection rate was 92 new cases per 100,000 in the week 11 October.

Already By contact details on local sites do you mean names of people who are meant to be SI?

Can they publish people’s names re data protection?

I'm wondering if local circuit breakers are value for money

I was wondering this too. Don't bother putting GM / Lancashire in to tier 3 if we are going to implement a circuit breaker in for the whole north west England. Do move london to tier two because they aren't scheduled for a circuit breaker. And, after the scenes in liverpool on tuesday night, they wouldn't want to be announcing a local circuit breaker until the very last second. Friday night would be a good time to announce it, due to start at midnight.

Hancock says London cases doubling every 7 days

From the BBC (though I'm not sure why, meanwhile, we could use the one the Italians have)

Oxford University develops five minute Covid test
Scientists at Oxford University say they have developed a coronavirus test that can identify the virus in under five minutes.

Oxford University hopes to start making the devices in early 2021 and then have it approved six months after that.

It’s hoped that it could be used at businesses and airports.

@MarshaBradyo No, of course not. Just a phone number to send them people's details.

Already ok but I still have no idea who is meant to be SI to make that call. Especially if they don’t want people to know in the first place. There might be some showing off and saying ha I’m not doing it but it’s be pretty stupid (ok maybe some are).