Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Does anyone know if there is any evidence of local lockdowns actually working? I think Leicester brought its numbers down a bit over the summer, possibly through better workplace enforcement rather than via restrictions on household mixing.

Slightly off topic but I do think learning about how to engage with information is key at school. Media is always political or even worse (fake etc). We did a lot of this type of analysis at university par for the course a long time ago.

@IrenetheQuaint

Does anyone know if there is any evidence of local lockdowns actually working? I think Leicester brought its numbers down a bit over the summer, possibly through better workplace enforcement rather than via restrictions on household mixing.

The Luton restrictions seems to work. Brought the numbers down again. They weren't a full lockdown like Leicester though

Hasn't stopped the numbers going back up again once lifted however....

Leicester numbers went down quite meaningfully from the end of June to late August. The problem is the drop has been overshadowed by the subsequent spike from late Aug to now.

I think the lesson is that local lockdowns can be effective in a stable environment but if you have got strong national trends relating to people moving (e.g. holiday returners, students, etc) local measures might become much less powerful.

Well the real "local lockdown" would be Wuhan, that was reasonably effective. There was also the famous village of Eyam, which contained the plague. But I guess you mean the current English version?

Inzamam Rashid @inzyrashid
NEW: Sources tell me No10 have told GM council leaders they are set to go into Tier 3 AND they have been given the extra cash they’ve wanted. @SkyNews

This is a huge win for @AndyBurnhamGM and local Greater Manchester leaders who’ve wanted a better financial package if they go into Tier 3. More details to come. @SkyNews

@wintertravel1980

Doesn't the data show that the success rate for local teams is far higher than the national system already, anyway?

Not really. The two data sets are not comparable.

Currently local teams deal with so called “complex outbreaks” that happen in prisons, care homes, schools and hostels for homeless people. The vast majority of cases occurs in the first three settings and those are easier to follow up on. Let us face it - we would absolutely expect to be able to trace 100% of contacts in prisons and care homes and 90%+ of contacts in schools.

The true complex cases occur in hospitality or at work places that are less likely to follow health and safety rules. Intuitively, it makes sense to suggest local teams could be more effective in handling those cases but it would be unrealistic to expect 90%+ success rates that we are seeing in prisons and care homes.

Interesting to have info

For those interested in sewage sampling ottawa.ctvnews.ca/mobile/we-re-strapped-to-a-rocket-right-now-alarm-at-sky-high-covid-19-levels-in-ottawa-s-sewage-1.5145059

Cant help feeling that if track and trace had been given to people who actually knew something about dealing with infection we'd have been doing this by now.

BBC now says Essex going into Tier 2 at weekend as well as London.

At what stage will the government realise that it'd be easier, clearer and more effective to restrict the whole country?

Rob Powell @robpowellnews
NEW - Lancashire MPs say they have been told by govt the county is staying in tier 2

The government needs any part of the economy that can function to do so. So forcing into lockdown areas where the NHS is not in danger of being overwhelmed simply means no money to support places that need to be locked down. We should have had regional differences in how people came out of lockdown.

Public health and health services in Germany, are devolved - budget & responsibilities - and are pretty efficient

imo, it leads to a much better system when people know their patch, are working with and helping their own area.
It's mostly by phone and online, but with the flexibility to turn to boot leather when f2f tracking and interviewing is needed

Each of the 401 administrative districts here started the crisis with a core of trained professionals, who could call in other civil servants for more manpower
and later had the expertise to train & manage teams that included student volunteers and military

and of course the local teams automatically receive test data from their local labs, which is also sent upstream to the RTKI for national data collation

RKI

@BigChocFrenzy

Public health and health services in Germany, are devolved - budget & responsibilities - and are pretty efficient

imo, it leads to a much better system when people know their patch, are working with and helping their own area.
It's mostly by phone and online, but with the flexibility to turn to boot leather when f2f tracking and interviewing is needed

Each of the 401 administrative districts here started the crisis with a core of trained professionals, who could call in other civil servants for more manpower
and later had the expertise to train & manage teams that included student volunteers and military

That does sound good.

How much do you think other systems help with compliance?

If I’m a person who will not isolate I’m not sure it will sway me. Do many people even know when the call comes from NHS Test and Trace? (I assume I haven’t been called, what do they say?)

Maybe we would become more German and efficient with local teams. Or maybe Scott at number 4 would say yeah sure of course then not do it anyway. Because he needs pay. Or because he doesn’t think it’s important.

That is if people stop giving false numbers and addresses which they can do whoever calls.

@MarshaBradyo

Costello - ‘A national lockdown is a last resort and an admission of failure.’

Pro tracing. Does anyone have insight onto what happened in early days. Did tracing move from public health, was it a case of numbers too high and hard to do?

Also on national v tier 3 local action when pp have said lockdown was timed incorrectly in NW (too early) wouldn’t it be better to time any action now and focus it?

.... Back in March, at the very beginning of the crisis, PHE found they only had the manpower to t&t for about 50 cases So they decided early on that it was pointless trying and used their limited manpower on other tasks

That was a major factor in how the number of cases rocketed and hence deaths

Germany's t&t were reducing spread from the start.
They couldn't handle the sheer volume of the cases in the peak weeks, but they were still having an effect in the proportion of spread they did stop

I’m not totally against local.

I’m fact a few weeks ago thought it a good way to go but issues seem fairly entrenched

Oh ffs
Pippa Crear @pippacrear
UPDATE: Health minister Jo Churchill tells GM MPs that "no decision has been taken" on whether to move the region into highest Tier 3. This comes after angry talks between GM leaders and No 10 this morning over financial package. What a mess.

She had also earlier said that GM were going into t3 and had got the money.

Utter confusion

Nightmare!

Marsha Public health -including in the UK - has legal powers

In Germany, they order people to take tests and make daily phone calls to check up, with checks by police visits if they are dubious

Penalties for non-compliance of these orders are severe, fines and even jail for persistent offenders

There is also the carrot of being paid properly to isolate
and groceries, meds etc organised at need

No system will cope with those wilfully determined to evade all cooperation, but they are a smalll minority in any country

What makes the difference is in those who will duck out if it's easy and risk-free, but will obey if it's not

If you have a locally run system then you know someone locally knows who you are. You'd also suspect that information would leak out and affect your future livelihood.

Someone locally will know if you have been on holiday and not self isolated, local systems do affect compliance.

@MarshaBradyo

That is if people stop giving false numbers and addresses which they can do whoever calls.

.... In Germany, like many other European countries, there are mandatory ID cards and local registers of where everyone lives, with details taken from ID

It is much much easier to track people
(except for the tiny minority with forged documents, who are too few to matter epidemiologically)

Every time you move, you have to go to the local town hall or whatever local office to register your new address, bringing ID and rental contract / purchase contract

You won't be able to rent, buy, collect parcels, receive healthcare ...
or carry out most normal life without this documentation

It's far more difficult living under the radar in Germany than in the UK - which is a major pull factor for migrants who try to get into the UK ilegally

Another rapid test - 25% still have to be swabbed but looking promising. nltimes.nl/2020/10/15/third-covid-rapid-test-proves-reliable-breath-test-tried-amsterdam

Do you mean I would know if my neighbour was meant to be SI but went to work? I wouldn’t have a clue if someone on this street was meant to be SI. They just wouldn’t have to tell me they had received a call in the first place.

Or do you mean it leaks another way?