Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

We start next week for secondary. Two weeks already so I hope it doesn’t extend. Mocks soon

@ancientgran

Local public health are doing better than the expensive national system. I might be biased after a career in local govt but I do think the knowledge and resources in local govt are often overlooked. As an example I know people say there aren't enough public health officers and I think well I'd look at trading standards and environmental health being seconded to assist. Both depts are well used to dealing with the public and businesses, both used to dealing with potentially life threatening issues so you would immediately increase the work force and of course local govt could recruit from health care professionals just like Serco have.

I’m sure public health can do a very good job but I wonder if the same issues - people giving false information and also refusing to SI at same level will still be highly problematic

Red I can’t watch it but I’m not surprised if so. They sounded pretty strong with approach on R4 this am

www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140-6736(20)32153-x

Scientific consensus on why herd immunity idea is dangerous.

London MPs currently in a meeting with Helen Waitley (sorry not sure of spelling) about new restrictions, so Sky are expecting them to give an indication of the situation in the next ten minutes or so.

Then she is meeting Lancashire MPs at 10.15 and Greater Manchester MPs at 10.45.

So timings accordingly about when well will have an idea of whats happening.

I think October half term dates vary a bit from what my teacher friends say so its plausiable still.

The proportion of people who don't engage should reduce in some areas, because psychologically people find it harder to avoid, obfuscate and lie in person. If the core service stays largely on the phone though, it would just get even less efficient.

MRex yes you’re right I didn’t realise it could switch to in person not phone.

That would help. If it is still phone not much in it. People don’t respond better depending on organisation behind caller.

Tier 2 for London from tomorrow night (from midnight tomorrow apparently) source skynews

@RedToothBrush - that’s seems to make sense given the direction of London numbers. I know my borough was doubling at 7 days last few days.

Plus a lot of secondaries 2 week half terms start next week here ( most primaries have another week in school)

I’m sure public health can do a very good job but I wonder if the same issues - people giving false information and also refusing to SI at same level will still be highly problematic There is a difference with a knock on the door and a phone call. There is also the relationship public health/trading standards/environmental health have with local businesses. If you are sitting in a call centre you will have no idea if the manager at the Dirty Duck is likely to be bending the rules so more of a priority than the Dirty Dog where their standards are high. You won't know that a few cases in one club is likely to mean students are the issue so move staff into the student village or it is the local hangout for the local yummie mummies so hitting the student village is a waste of time. Yes people can still be awkward but is the difference valuable? I'd say yes but others might think the call centre is more effective.

I just realised your posts are on two threads but yes agree with Tier 2 for London

@MRex

The proportion of people who don't engage should reduce in some areas, because psychologically people find it harder to avoid, obfuscate and lie in person. If the core service stays largely on the phone though, it would just get even less efficient.

Also, here in NW at least, I think people have lost patience with central government strategies and see them as "not working". I think they are more likely to believe va local public health team are working in their best interests.

public health was deliberately run down so it could be sold off, as it now has been. The remnants are functioning much better than the national system. You would find that many people with experience in this sort of thing were saying back in February/March that they should build on the existing system. They needed money to recruit and train staff, instead it was wasted on Dido Harding, the woman in charge of talk talk's failures.

Local people have local knowledge. They will know the places people are likely to hang out together. They can make use of local communication networks to get warnings out quickly. They will know who local community leaders are and may already have relationships with them.

In all honesty can anyone really think they could do much worse?

@MarshaBradyo

No time machine no. I see people calling for tracing to go back to public health and I’m wondering if people who know about it think it would resolve some if the issues we are facing.

They couldn't do tracing back in March because they weren't testing most people, so had no way of knowing who had the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54551596

London to tier 2

Is it definite it would be in person? There are so many cases.

I still think the pressures against being asked to isolate are so strong that that respect for local health team would soon dissipate. Whoever does it suffers the same maligning. We don’t look kindly on local teams just because they are local generally. Parking fines for example.

One of the trials reported "Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days " Remdesivir is given as a 5 day IV so requires people to be in hospital. It has shortened the average stay but that is still not just a few days. Those needing intensive care will be in longer, sometimes months.

Did they look at whether Remdesivir reduced likelihood of developing long covid after discharge?

Local people have local knowledge. They will know the places people are likely to hang out together. They can make use of local communication networks to get warnings out quickly. They will know who local community leaders are and may already have relationships with them.
In all honesty can anyone really think they could do much worse?

Agreed. EHOs in particular already usually have good relationships with local businesses. They should build on that. And yes, it couldn't be any worse. Doesn't the data show that the success rate for local teams is far higher than the national system already, anyway?

This is how remdesivier works, I think that should translate into less lung damage but it probably has not been in use long enough for anyone to do follow up studies yet. scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/06/29/how-remdesivir-works-and-why-its-not-the-ultimate-coronavirus-killer/

@MarshaBradyo

Plus The Guardian will always skew to its agenda.

You see, I find that to be more true of the Telegraph/ Mail/ Sun.

Interesting.

If the government had really "followed the science" they'd have given money to local public health teams, as recommended by just about every scientist. It was an ideology driven belief that the private sector must do better - and the contract also went to a chum.

In smaller communities local people will cotton on after a few tests to the fact that you have, say, a factory outbreak. Look at the Isle of Anglesey and the factory outbreak they had months ago - brought under control rapidly and with virtually no continuing infection. It's probably now got a few infected student/ staff from Bangor university but it's still doing pretty well. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Isle%20of%20Anglesey

We don’t look kindly on local teams just because they are local generally I suppose it depends, I've worked in various areas of local govt and been involved in various scenarios where non local support was needed, things like the miners strike, race riots, ambulance strikes, visits by major personalities who could be targets, foot and mouth. In some instances it is fairly neutral, in riots for example they don't seem to care if you are local or not if you are in uniform, in other instances local knowledge matters, racing to a major accident if you are an army medic is great and people will welcome your help but if you can't find the address you will be later than the local guys, with something like foot and mouth the relationship with the local farmers does seem a positive. So it can vary.

Doesn't the data show that the success rate for local teams is far higher than the national system already, anyway? MPs and commentators have definitely been saying that but I'm not sure where the stats are. I've got to go to an appointment so I haven't got time to have a look.

Bit distracted as one of my kids is ill with a cough, teacher in school that closed today due to so many cases of covid. Hoping they get a quick test.

Doesn't the data show that the success rate for local teams is far higher than the national system already, anyway?

Not really. The two data sets are not comparable.

Currently local teams deal with so called “complex outbreaks” that happen in prisons, care homes, schools and hostels for homeless people. The vast majority of cases occurs in the first three settings and those are easier to follow up on. Let us face it - we would absolutely expect to be able to trace 100% of contacts in prisons and care homes and 90%+ of contacts in schools.

The true complex cases occur in hospitality or at work places that are less likely to follow health and safety rules. Intuitively, it makes sense to suggest local teams could be more effective in handling those cases but it would be unrealistic to expect 90%+ success rates that we are seeing in prisons and care homes.

ancientgran I hope your kid gets a test quickly and is well soon.

Here they all have an agenda. I tend to avoid papers or if I do read what’s linked I always keep in mind their politics. I certainly don’t bother with Mail / Sun or tabloid trash.

I use R4 scientific programmes mostly or go to actual scientific report. It’s actually getting incredibly difficult to engage with unbiased content. One reason I prefer a neutral thread on here (also tough).