Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Costello - ‘A national lockdown is a last resort and an admission of failure.’

Pro tracing. Does anyone have insight onto what happened in early days. Did tracing move from public health, was it a case of numbers too high and hard to do?

Also on national v tier 3 local action when pp have said lockdown was timed incorrectly in NW (too early) wouldn’t it be better to time any action now and focus it?

Just a reminder about 'flu and flu deaths, people would die of flu if they had the immunization and were in a sealed bubble, I've seen the link in here before but I will try and find it.

@MarshaBradyo - not enough local public health officers, they needed to scale quickly and thought a national service by phone with local teams doing small amounts on the ground would be fastest to scale and work. It was planning for local teams to do "complex" cases of larger outbreaks around fixed locations (care home, workplace etc), but that massively underestimated how much would need to be done on the ground due to people not having phones / not engaging due to it being on the phone.

@MarshaBradyo

Costello - ‘A national lockdown is a last resort and an admission of failure.’

Pro tracing. Does anyone have insight onto what happened in early days. Did tracing move from public health, was it a case of numbers too high and hard to do?

Also on national v tier 3 local action when pp have said lockdown was timed incorrectly in NW (too early) wouldn’t it be better to time any action now and focus it?

I think it became impossible/pointless to try tracing once Covid took off because they were only testing people in hospital. They didn't know who had Covid outside of hospital so no way they could trace contacts.

Sky reporting that people running test track and trace getting paid £7,000 per day. High if it was working, out of this world when it isn't working.

🤨🤨

GMB just said some of the managers in Test track and trace on £1,500,000 a year.

I do hope there is a full investigation of what has gone on and this govt are held personally responsible for the money they have wasted.

At one time I felt a bit sorry for Matt Hancock as I thought he was doing his best (unfortunately he probably was doing his best it just wasn't very good) and I felt he was being left to carry the can for the rest of the government. I don't feel any sympathy now and I think he is truly useless.

Sky reporting that people running test track and trace getting paid £7,000 per day.

I think this is a slight misuse of data. The consultancy day rate is up to £7k per day. That isn't how much the individual is getting paid.

@ChloeCrocodile

Sky reporting that people running test track and trace getting paid £7,000 per day.

I think this is a slight misuse of data. The consultancy day rate is up to £7k per day. That isn't how much the individual is getting paid.

At this point it doesn't really matter. Okay, maybe a bit. But let's be fair, these consultants are on 100k+ salaries.

Liverpool Echo is reporting that Joe Anderson has October Half Term under review with a view to extend it by a week in Liverpool.

I suspect that will happen and others may follow suit.

Either way it isn't working properly and it is time it was all handed over to the local authorities as they could do so much with that money and they are much better at test track and trace.

This is a link to the story news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-consultants-paid-equivalent-of-1-5m-salary-12104028

Whoever is getting the money we are paying it.

Costello is a very senior British paediatrician, formerly a director of child and adolescent health at WHO. He and Reicher are very knowledgeable, eloquent & persuasive, in a good way.

@herecomesthsun

Costello is a very senior British paediatrician, formerly a director of child and adolescent health at WHO. He and Reicher are very knowledgeable, eloquent & persuasive, in a good way.

Costello is not for national lockdown so I agree with him.

Reicher I’d question how much his political leanings mean he takes an attacking approach by default.

But people can follow who they want obviously.

[quote MRex]@MarshaBradyo - not enough local public health officers, they needed to scale quickly and thought a national service by phone with local teams doing small amounts on the ground would be fastest to scale and work. It was planning for local teams to do "complex" cases of larger outbreaks around fixed locations (care home, workplace etc), but that massively underestimated how much would need to be done on the ground due to people not having phones / not engaging due to it being on the phone.[/quote]
Thanks MRex
How much is this a problem for both public and private provision do you think?

As I’m not sure the issues go away if we switch back to public.

Plus The Guardian will always skew to its agenda.

Well we haven't got a time machine to take us back to March but that is when local govt should have got the funding to set up systems. We are now throwing money to try and make the system work.

No time machine no. I see people calling for tracing to go back to public health and I’m wondering if people who know about it think it would resolve some if the issues we are facing.

twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1316631733765365760
Kay Burley (skynews) tweet with clip of Business Minister Nadhim Zahawi in which he appears to accidentally reveal that restrictions for Manchester have indeed been decided (without local consultation).

MPs Afzal Khan(Lab), Lisa Nandy(Lab) and William Wragg(Con) all furious at the way its being handled and how they are not being kept in the loop and are complaining on twitter about it.
.

Local public health are doing better than the expensive national system. I might be biased after a career in local govt but I do think the knowledge and resources in local govt are often overlooked. As an example I know people say there aren't enough public health officers and I think well I'd look at trading standards and environmental health being seconded to assist. Both depts are well used to dealing with the public and businesses, both used to dealing with potentially life threatening issues so you would immediately increase the work force and of course local govt could recruit from health care professionals just like Serco have.

Decisions regarding extending half term surely need to be made before schools break up tomorrow?!

Thanks for that RedToothBrush I didn't see that bit of Sky news. I tend to flick between BBC, Sky and GMB so miss some bits.

It must be so frustrating for people on the ground, MPs and local govt, when they are ignored.

@Chaotic45 I think most schools don't break up until 24th.... so there's another week

Chaotic I seem to remember earlier in the year teachers were saying they were getting information on Friday nights or even Sunday nights about what was happening, advice changing etc.

I think half term varies round the country.