Downing Street is live now

[Jenasaurus]

Johnathan Van Tan is provided an update from Downing Street. Not looking good.

Perhaps if enforcement at allegedly Covid Safe venues was monitored better the current restrictions might have had better effect. I have so far had fall outs with a local licensed premised who said 'they'd be doing table service if they had enough staff and it wasn't busy' and a gym who have taken down all their Covid signs that said 2m on them and put some of their CV machines 1.2 apart and when questioned said that social distancing was now 1m! Both establishments have lost our membership. There is little social distancing between members in there either. DH observed teenagers hugging each other as a greeting.

Can we stop with the ‘granny killing’ crap. It’s so dismissive. Imagine if it was babies or children it was predominantly affecting. I doubt anyone would be using the same language. It’s revolting

@Scaraffito

Hospital admissions R high. If you break your leg you are screened on admission. If you test positive you are a statistic of 'in hospital with covid'

Precisely, if that's what is being tracked and decisions made from it, surely it should be a tally of those who are either bring admitted with Covid, or are requiring treatment for covid even if they were in for something else. Those who are asymptomatic and happen to be tested just as they test everyone shouldn't be counted imo, someone with a broken leg with zero symptoms is not indicative of those who are in hospital because of the severity of their covid symptoms.

Most people with a broken leg won't need a ICU bed nor die. Covid ICU bed usage and deaths are both rising.

I mean included in the covid hospital admissions, not just the general case numbers. She hasn't been admitted for covid and is not ill. We need better figures to understand who is in because they're ill and who has tested positive on admission for something else but aren't ill with it.*
But as a Covid positive patient she will presumably be treated as such with extra barrier methods and isolation and taking up the allocated spaces.

@Carrotcakey. - I'm sorry to hear your Mum has been widowed, it's so hard anyway, but especially at this time 🌷

I'm puzzled though, you live in a local lockdown area, why would you risk taking it to your mum? Whether it's permitted or not?

Is Christmas Day really worth that risk to you?

I've cancelled our usual Christmas arrangements to avoid any of us transmitting the virus. This means I'll be spending Christmas on my own.

I'm not judging you for breaking the rules, I just don't understand you risking infecting your Mum.

I saw her when we were allowed support bubbles, haven’t seen her since new restrictions

Not being argumentative; genuine question but I thought support bubbles were still allowed in new local restrictions?

@Badbadbunny on what data they are telling you which isn't even accurate. They are putting all deaths down to covid even if it really isn't.....what are the tru figures who the hell actually knows. Only a week ago their testing figures were massively wrong. Who is to say its right now?

When we know testing isn't accurate then how can you say with absolutely certainty that numbers are rising by x%

I don't trust any of the data being provided.

@Christmasfairy2020

but they were testing pretty early on hospital admission because i had three relatives that were taken in as emergencies . So what they are saying is that the increase in positives is an indication of increasing cases in the country . And also by area. Especially as some are asymtomatic.

@1happyhippie

I believe Boris is still speaking at 6pm Heard it earlier on sky news.

I actually think this is quite a good update.
Van tam always comes across well, he makes things make sense and is clear to the point.
I would listen to him over most at the minute.

I thought it was an excellent factual update with really clear that charts and gave us where we are. It clearly showed the spread to the older age groups is starting and in fact well established in some areas. The spread is moving across the country geographically as well.
I was also unaware that 30% of beds in the North west now have Covid patients in them. That is a hgh % already and given that the NW will absolutely have more deaths in the next 2-4 weeks (even if Covid were to disappear today), I wouldn't surprised if more than 50% of beds are taken by Covid patients in that part of the country soon. Of course I know many believe those will all be people with broken legs who caught a mild dose while in hospital

@captainpantbeard Bubbles within lockdown areas ok. Not across them. If she lived down the road it would be fine.

@MJMG2015 My Mum is early 50s and no more vulnerable than I am. She will spend all of Christmas Day crying and talking to my Dad’s ashes. She has no one else. To me that makes the risk worth it.

[quote Unsure33]@Christmasfairy2020

but they were testing pretty early on hospital admission because i had three relatives that were taken in as emergencies . So what they are saying is that the increase in positives is an indication of increasing cases in the country . And also by area. Especially as some are asymtomatic.[/quote]
I could be wrong but I don't think they were testing hospital admissions early on. I had a baby in early May and I was in the first week of hospital admission testing, in my area at least

@onedayinthefuture

It must be so heartbreaking for the families of dead loved ones to hear that maybe now they could have survived with better treatment.

Like all other illnesses in which treatment improves then.

Medical advancements are constant and ongoing. People are surviving cancers that would have killed them a few years ago.

Covid is not worse than other dangerous illnesses.

And the Professor DOOM is usually deployed to scare us all silly before Boris Johnson comes on a bit later and gives us some more grave instructions.

It's all so pathetic. I'm sick to death of being governed by leak.

Imagine if it was babies or children it was predominantly affecting

But it isn't.

I'm REALLY annoyed the government haven't used ACTUAL SKILLED people in this country to get proper systems in place instead of wasting our money lining their own pockets

This. They are nothing short of criminals.

@Ryerossy

Imagine if it was babies or children it was predominantly affecting

But it isn't.

But if it was, people wouldn't be saying 'Oh, it only affects babies the rest of us should just carry on'.

Imagine if it was babies or children it was predominantly affecting

There were no lockdowns for decades of polio ... or a myriad of childhood diseases which harm, maim and even kill children even today. So I'm guessing if it was children we would do precisely what we do now - nothing but wait for a vaccine years down the line.

I'm sorry I just don't see the point of comparing things like that. What's the point in saying "what if it were kids?" when the fact of the matter is, it ISN'T kids who are largely affected.

It's like saying "imagine if the death rate were 30%". It isn't, so what's the point in saying it?

Of course, kids don't vote, do they? No lost votes there.

but it isn’t
No, but I doubt anyone would be using the dismissive language which is being used towards older people if it was

Similar position to you Carrotcakey. Widowed 75+DM in next county, technically she's been in my bubble since March but with increased restrictions in GManchester we haven't actually seen each other because she's playing it safe. Within local area I have elderly PIL, both in poor health (one with cancer); we haven't seen them since March because I have to bubble with my DM in case of emergencies & also issues of local lockdown. Added to that much loved elderly relative (also heavily dependent on us for care ) has just been given a terminal diagnosis and we can't see him. We've had to zoom in to his medical consultations. I with I haven't met any of my friends or colleagues since March as DH was shielding , we've had DCs caught up in exam fiasco in summer. DH was diagnosed with depression two years ago and is depending (even more) on my stiff upper lip. My SUL is a bit wobbly but I'm gritting my teeth and counting my blessings. However, if I'm told that I can't leave my immediate area even to go somewhere so isolated that no one can hear me screaming I will lose my shit entirely.

But if it was, people wouldn't be saying 'Oh, it only affects babies the rest of us should just carry on'.

That's because generally speaking the life of a baby is considered more worthy than the life of a 90 year old who has already lived to older than the average life expectancy.

If you had to press a button, one that would result in the death of a 12 week old baby and the other the death of a 93 year old person, which one would you press?

I suspect nearly everyone, including the elderly themselves, would not press the baby's button.

It's just basic biology to be honest.

But if it was, people wouldn't be saying 'Oh, it only affects babies the rest of us should just carry on'.

Actually I'm not sure this is right. If it only affected babies what most parents of babies would be doing is staying inside until a vaccine was ready. No one would run the risk of going outside. I certainly wouldn't. I'd protect my baby at all costs. I wouldn't take the risk of assuming everyone else wasn't mixing - I'd just simply stay indoors with my baby.

I suspect a lot of people would do likewise.

Yes, HesterShaw1 - of course we have improved treatments. Bizarre post of someone complaining that some people caught it too early .

Centuries of people should complain that they died of polio, the plague, were infertile, tooth abscess (yep, people used to die of this). You can’t blame anyone; Covid 19 is a novel virus -ie new - so more is understood about it and what effective treatments there are every day.

[quote cyclingmad]@Badbadbunny on what data they are telling you which isn't even accurate. They are putting all deaths down to covid even if it really isn't.....what are the tru figures who the hell actually knows. Only a week ago their testing figures were massively wrong. Who is to say its right now?

When we know testing isn't accurate then how can you say with absolutely certainty that numbers are rising by x%

I don't trust any of the data being provided.[/quote]
All this 'quibbling' over the fact that some data is not always 100% accurate (it never is in the real world) is a good excuse to just avoid looking at the bigger picture.

The broad picture is pretty consistent however you cut or define the data. Cases are rising worldwide, so are hospitalisations. whether deaths will rise much is still up for debate amongst some people - I believe they will, though hopefully not as much as last time because of what we have learned since the Spring .

However if the hospitals are full (which unchecked rising hospitalisations will lead to) , people who would have had treatment in the past (whether it is for Covid or something else) will not get that treatment and more people ill die than needed to. That will happen, however much you don't trust the data.

And yes I know people die all the time but as a rule we try to prevent deaths which did not need to happen if we can and I for one don't want to give up that aim.

Currently Covid is the third highest cause of deaths after heart disease and cancer in the US. You can quibble all you like about 'definitions of cause of death' but anyone who does not see that something that killed exactly zero people this time last year in the US is now the third biggest killer in the country is I feel missing the 'bigger picture' In that context, moaning about how we define 'died of or with covid' is my idea of 'fiddling while Rome burns!!