The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

So Italy started school two weeks after England (around 14th September). I have a friend who teaches in Lombardy was chatting with her just before they went back. When did their cases begin to rise? Hmm..

@MotherOfDragonite

I just feel so strongly that parents should be given a choice. For families where the risk level is high because a family member is vulnerable, or a grandparent has to do pick ups etc, it's a terrible position to be in.

For many families, that same grandparent could do home learning with the child in a much safer way! But LEAs are being very aggressive about fining for non-attendance. I think it's so wrong.

I completely agree. I am a teacher and live with a clinically vulnerable partner. My parents are also vulnerable so I don’t feel able to see them. Teachers also have families and love vulnerable people. We should be able to work from home providing online teaching to children in similar situations.

I cannot believe for example how much the PHE report on schools, which was in May/June and a completely different scenario, is used to say that there is low transmission. That is not a robust scientific view.

Yes. I would go further and say it is stupid to extrapolate from a totally different environment. It's like saying that serious road traffic accidents rarely occur in 20 mph zones, so let's just get rid of the speed limit entirely and the same will be true.

@RedToothBrush Thanks for the Barrow Hall Lane article.

That is strongly suggestive to me that the initial measures to isolate close contacts were insufficient and that there was some asymptomatic spread happening for a while.

It's also illustrative of how, in the middle of a pandemic with a highly transmissible disease, you can't just say 'schools must open and stay open' because teachers have to staff them, and once enough of them are isolating then the school has to close.

It would be so interesting to compare with a school where students wearing masks. Surely there must be data on this from another country? Why aren't these studies being done?

Baring in mind low level, no or different symptoms to the main three we are encouraged to test for, especially in schools.

@NeurotrashWarrior I think this is one of the most important points - we were sent an email every time there was a positive case in the school, but with all of the previous cases there never 'appeared' to be transmission to anyone else within the bubbles. Given the conditions in schools, I can't believe this was actually the case - most likely there was plenty of onward transmission but none with the 'big 3' symptoms that would trigger a test. So, transmission continues to increase 'under the radar' until now when we have multiple cases (including several staff, who are more likely to show typical symptoms) that the school can no longer contain.
This will not be a one off. As I said, we are in a tier 1 area, so if it can happen here it will be happening far more widely than we realise.

Absolutely pink. Combo of that and asymptomatic.

We've had a lot with tummy bugs too, more than usual.

I can't find it but there was a worrying report about a school in Manchester that's now had to close; they said the issue was that most children and adults didn't have classic symptoms.

They had a large number of cases so more testing happened I think; the most common symptom was aching joints and especially shoulders and neck I think. (Both Dh and I had this one week after another recently!) so it got completely out of control.

There was also the issue of actually getting tests in early September too.

But yes, we have no way of knowing if it's spreading asymptomatically.

Given the high rates of university students with asymptomatic cases, I imagine that possibility is high.

It would be so interesting to compare with a school where students wearing masks. Surely there must be data on this from another country? Why aren't these studies being done? Yes I agree - there is some data on Asian countries however there are also cultural differences and more protective measures. There is nothing looking at Irish secondary schools as far as I know where the students have been wearing masks.

This is 2nd,3rd,4th hand, but possibly shows some evidence school's data isn't being as openly discussed as it could be?

Oops.

@NeurotrashWarrior

Absolutely pink. Combo of that and asymptomatic.

We've had a lot with tummy bugs too, more than usual.

I can't find it but there was a worrying report about a school in Manchester that's now had to close; they said the issue was that most children and adults didn't have classic symptoms.

They had a large number of cases so more testing happened I think; the most common symptom was aching joints and especially shoulders and neck I think. (Both Dh and I had this one week after another recently!) so it got completely out of control.

There was also the issue of actually getting tests in early September too.

I remember the story Neuro.

Its this one isn't it?

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/headteacher-warns-parents-over-lesser-19102778?_ga=2.51089249.976399724.1603052948-1181996993.1579866642
Headteacher warns parents over lesser known Covid symptoms as outbreak closes school
Bosses at the school are looking into why the spread of the virus 'happened so quickly'

I've been thinking about this. The govt had that massive campaign at the end of the summer about schools being safe and how you should definitely send your kids back, paying social media influencers to spread the message and having promoted pieces in the online news outlets. The CMOs all signed that letter saying it was all fine.

They can't admit that schools aren't safe, can they? It's not a case of them saying 'we didn't know so we're now updating the guidance', it's a case of them having to admit they were actually wrong.

@noblegiraffe

I've been thinking about this. The govt had that massive campaign at the end of the summer about schools being safe and how you should definitely send your kids back, paying social media influencers to spread the message and having promoted pieces in the online news outlets. The CMOs all signed that letter saying it was all fine.

They can't admit that schools aren't safe, can they? It's not a case of them saying 'we didn't know so we're now updating the guidance', it's a case of them having to admit they were actually wrong.

They knew this was likely to happen. It's common sense.

Now the infection rate is sky rocketing amongst school aged children, it's not being mentioned anywhere. Even on the Channel 4 'debate' earlier about lockdown, the schools issue was brought up by a member of the audience and then promptly ignored by the presenter, who instead began talking about infections in universities.

This absolute silence surrounding schools speaks volumes in itself.

#dontmentiontheschools 🤫

The Government/SAGE have said that there are around 50k or more new cases daily. Test and trace are picking up less than a third of that. They appear to be deliberately holding back from testing school children.

Where do you think a large chunk of the other 35k cases daily might be?

Good for the head of that primary in Stockport for speaking up. I hope that story doesn't stay confined to the local news. The big papers should be picking up on this now - come on Daily Mail, we know you read Mumsnet!

I'm shocked the presenter on the Ch 4 program didn't address the issue. All these journalists trying hard not to mention it - they're complicit.

It's so morally wrong what's happening. It was obvious - so many medical experts, the WHO, all set out clear measures for reopening including small class sizes, social distancing and masks and the UK government has done none of it, given schools no extra money at all to make them safer, actually prevented mask wearing, unlike most other countries where they've at least done more than washing hands. Paying for adverts to lie to parents instead of giving the money toward safety measures in schools. The failed promise of proper testing. There should be criminal liability if and when people get seriously ill as a result. The scientific evidence was there in the summer. It's just shocking.

At least at the universities they've actually done proper testing - of contacts not just with the 3 symptoms, so they know the full scale of the problem. In schools, we don't even have that.

IloveJKRowling the Stockport story isn't from today but from 14th.

The story was also covered by the Mirror (part of the same newspaper group) but I've used the original here as it was linked to in the Mirror article too, and I'm in the habit of using the original source when the National Newspapers do that, so they get the clicks.

@IloveJKRowling

Good for the head of that primary in Stockport for speaking up. I hope that story doesn't stay confined to the local news. The big papers should be picking up on this now - come on Daily Mail, we know you read Mumsnet!

I'm shocked the presenter on the Ch 4 program didn't address the issue. All these journalists trying hard not to mention it - they're complicit.

It's so morally wrong what's happening. It was obvious - so many medical experts, the WHO, all set out clear measures for reopening including small class sizes, social distancing and masks and the UK government has done none of it, given schools no extra money at all to make them safer, actually prevented mask wearing, unlike most other countries where they've at least done more than washing hands. Paying for adverts to lie to parents instead of giving the money toward safety measures in schools. The failed promise of proper testing. There should be criminal liability if and when people get seriously ill as a result. The scientific evidence was there in the summer. It's just shocking.

At least at the universities they've actually done proper testing - of contacts not just with the 3 symptoms, so they know the full scale of the problem. In schools, we don't even have that.

Well said.

The Manchester Evening News are trying to keep a list of all the schools who have been affected. Emma Gill seems to be the journalist doing all of this collecting via information provided by the public as the only council in Greater Manchester who are publishing a list are Wigan.

If anyone is interested, her profile page (with links on how to contact her and her articles and updates on various G Manchester schools) is here.

The last count was 525 schools in G Manchester affected since September.

*But yes, we have no way of knowing if it's spreading asymptomatically.

I know a member of SLT who has tested positive. On paper they should have symptoms.

They have had no symptoms, even now after a week, but was only tested as a fellow staff member was positive. How many others are walking around asymptomatic, children and adults?

@noblegiraffe

I've been thinking about this. The govt had that massive campaign at the end of the summer about schools being safe and how you should definitely send your kids back, paying social media influencers to spread the message and having promoted pieces in the online news outlets. The CMOs all signed that letter saying it was all fine.

They can't admit that schools aren't safe, can they? It's not a case of them saying 'we didn't know so we're now updating the guidance', it's a case of them having to admit they were actually wrong.

When I saw that document signed by the CMOs and DCMOs that's exactly what I thought Noble. Shit, this means we are just going to be abandoned in virus infested schools because they won't admit that schools spread it because of all their signatures saying 'it's safe'.

I have just had a text from a friend who teaches in a college. She tested positive yesterday and was told by her HR dept that a lot of staff had also been tested positive. Her Line Manager had said nothing to her about that and asked was she coming in if she was ok to work...

We have no chance of beating this virus whilst this sort of behaviour is going on.

We've just been asked at work (school) to turn off the NHS app whilst at work.
😔

I've mentioned it on a couple of threads already but
DC1 school closed Friday. Leading in to Friday morning there had been 3 positive cases. By Friday afternoon there were 6 positives across 4 bubbles. Over the weekend I know 3 pupils have tested positive (just the ones I'm aware of). Text from the school today stating 4 more staff members have tested positive.

This has not been reported anywhere. Primary SEN school. We're tier 2. The school are hoping to return after half term but we shall see.

come on Daily Mail, we know you read Mumsnet! I know where are they when you need them?!

It is frustrating but I think most of you above posters are right. There was such a huge campaign which seemed very mansplaining I have to say - towards mother’s I guess - That ‘there is nothing to see here’. I read evidence critically for a living and to be fair to them - even the ECDC produced a briefing on schools which concluded that ‘children were very low or no transmitters’ - when they did not have enough credible and solid studies to base that on. There wasn’t enough evidence that children / schools were main drivers - very few clusters in the same way that care homes, meat factors and restaurants for example had.

I do think that on top of the ECDC being a little too far in their conclusions, then gave CMOs the confidence to then also go a little too far in their policy around schools.

Combined with WHO and others, at the time of schools opening in September, still not quite ‘getting’ the stronger evidence emerging of aerosol transmission and the efficacy of mask - this has left schools under protected.

The guidance on schools was written before aerosol transmission was seen as so important, and therefore most school guidance was and still is around hand washing and cleaning.

There has then been a weird refusal to look at schools with the updated evidence base. Why?! I think because Covid19 strategy is so poorly managed and reactive. SAGE has got stronger but is ignoring schools for other concerns and they also know that many parents just want their kids in school, are sick of it and wouldn’t necessarily like their kids being cold with windows open or wearing masks. So they’ve shy’d away.

Maybe they're scared of all the angry parents they'll have to face if they admit they've got it wrong? But with so many schools closing (199 out of 200 in Liverpool affected with closures) it's becoming blindingly obvious that schools aren't 'covid secure' or in any way close to that.

I always think refusal to accept you're wrong and try to make things right in the face of blindingly obvious evidence is extremely worrying.