The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

I’m not arguing he schools numbers look worrying but I promise you we aren’t being somehow ordered not to report them.

Can you promise that? Are you the apparently only honest government minister? Doubt it. You’ll actually find that statistics are being manipulated by the government before release. It also doesn’t suit the narrative of most papers in this country to defend teachers and point out what’s going on.

UsForThem co-chair Christine Brett, from Cambridge, said banning singing is one of the many detrimental measures being taken at schools

Fucking hell, bloody well be grateful schools are open and staff are risking their health and even lives!

@ScouseQueen

Yes but it sounds like there are not meant to be any changes expected at schools tomorrow, so these tiers are apparently not related to the new restrictions. It looks like they've just given up on the idea of managing outbreaks at scvool medical in favour of school for all at all costs.

Totally agree with everything you have said.
I am so angry. It didn't need to be like this. They had months to come up with a plan for school, yet did nothing. Honestly it feel like they came in late on day and scrawled a quick plan for the return of schools on the back of a fag packet, it is so poor.

There is a mixture of apathy from people and desperation from parents who desperately need school in order to work. The unions have also gone very quiet. It is bizarre.

I can't believe that all political parties are totally ignoring the issue along with the whole mainstream press. Even over on the data thread which has been so informative and often ahead of the experts, you get rudely shouted down if you mention concerns about schools.

I don't understand it. Yes children need to be in school, no one wants them closed for months again but this head down, business as usual, nothing to see hear policy is down right dangerous.

@Belle0705

Why does every case need to end up in the local paper? Surely the effected families are notified. Why does the whole town need to know? Its not like its a surprise there's cases in the community. Are we going to continue losing our mind over every case?

It seems that if there is a case, parents at the school might not be told.

Even parents in the bubble might not be told.

The child's teacher/s might or might not be told to isolate.

And the government is taking over the role of advice to schools on this, away from PHE, which what sounds like a dodgy phone advice line, that minimizes any measures that need to be taken.

In this situation it would be very helpful for clinically vulnerable families to have accurate information in the local media.

Clinically vulnerable families who had been shielding and were then told they have to send their kids into schools, which don't have adequate infection control.

I literally do not give a toss, as long as my DDs are in school!

@timeforanewstart

And are all those children and teachers in bham off with covid or because in bubbles self isolating ?

They were self isolating.

Imagine. One family have a birthday party. Two siblings in one school, their two cousins at a neighbouring one. All children get covid at the party. 400 children are self isolating in bubbles as a result.

These figures doesn't necessarily mean the transmission is in schools, at all.

• I don’t think they ever gave up on the herd immunity strategy but they didn’t have the public support for it in March.

The more I read on here the more I realise more people are now open to the idea of herd immunity...*

Yes I agree. Immunity may last for several months or up to a year, but scientists are still learning.

Thankfully most children and teens are asymptomatic so it becomes very difficult to tell if they even have the virus.

Don't forget rent a gob Russell Viner, with collusion for The Guardian, stating that 'too many children are having tests'. Direct knock on effect is now that huge numbers are not booking tests for pretty classic symptoms.

@noblegiraffe I really admire your tenacity with all this.

I don't always agree with you, but I tell you what, I've often thought I'm going a bit mad with all the schools stuff and then you come along and I think, ah, I'm not loopy. It is how I think it is.

The only thing I'd say is that the PHE simply don't have the resources to deal with this. Schools in our area are having students test positive and couldn't get through to the PHE for days.

As for GCSES I'm so cross and anxious about it all. My lovely son is finding the pressure unbearable. Will there be exams? Does this assessment going badly mean I'll never get the grade I've been told my entire secondary career is my goal? Does this assement count towards CAGs? Will the exams be later?

He's 15. He's off school today with an almighty eye infection and I swear it's stress.

What number is affected I thought it was incredibly low for primary?

From another thread
Primary bubble closures are below 1% and even secondary are 6%, which is below general community infection rates in many areas.

Primary isn’t much of a story

@MoreW1ne

I'm sure in a lot of schools there would be ramifications for this, even if it was not a formal sanction. Teachers are under a lot of pressure to attend work at all costs. If there was a coordinated effort to stay off all at once, it would be known.

I don't think teachers are feeling better about it. Read the many threads on here posted by concerned teachers who feel unsafe. They are just stuck in a difficult position as they need to keep going to work in unsafe conditions to keep their jobs...

Interesting and worrying. Thanks for posting. And we need to be told about exams soon.

@CarlottaValdez

There isn’t a mechanism for the government to suppress news in this way though. We don’t have a state owned media. I’m not arguing he schools numbers look worrying but I promise you we aren’t being somehow ordered not to report them.

It's being done internally. Certain councils are making sure that info on closed bubbles or even whole school (though harder) are not reported on the school website. It's that the local papers are relying on as evidence of closure, and the public to let them know.

The councils are guiding school leaders to only internally report and communicate with how they need to. As a teacher, we haven't even been told officially the names of infected children or staff unless we were part of the bubble and process, presumably under privacy and possibly gdpr, safeguarding procedures but the effect is that little gets through to the papers.

If it's not issued as a public letter on the website, it's not going through to the paper.

It's very noticeable that in the NE, the evening chronicle has an ongoing updated list of schools affected. Sunderland seems to issue a list in the spirit of snow closures which make it to the paper/ website. The other LAs do not.

I know of many, many schools affected from the first weeks of term that haven't been reported on.

There will be lists of schools and data in every LA. A relative is a deputy head in Leeds and told us exactly how many schools have been affected there a couple of weeks ago as he's on a committee with council leaders.

There's also a safeguarding element to the black out through. We have parents who aren't clinically vulnerable with extreme anxiety, which affects the children. We had a lot of issues with child protection during lockdown.

It's a double edged sword as, as a teacher, id appreciate clarity around what exactly the risks to our health are (large Sen school, no SD with pupils and we work in teams of 3-4 staff, vety hands on, no masks. Just loads of cleaning and hand washing, bubbled year groups.)

Ultimately community case load affects schools.

I'm furious with the government.

They could make schools safer with more funding. (Biggest issue is our whole education system is fucked; class sizes too big.)

They could have locked down sooner.

They could make testing more available and easier for pupils.

And we need to be told about exams soon

What would make a nice change is if they would plan ahead now for contingencies for the 2022 public exams. Rather than risk making it up on the hoof in autumn 21

Marsha, the last data on schools with clusters: (ie internally transmitted cases)

It's not hugely different. And I note SEN schools are increasing.

They're never talked about.

Big local primary Sen school has fully shut due to 10 cases.

I've said this on another thread, but I'll say it again 14/22 of our staff have had Covid (including me) we are all now fine.
There have been no cases in our children. One member of staff had it and it went spread like wild fire - despite us distancing and not sharing the staffroom.
There has been no mention on our local news/social media sites despite news about other schools so it feels like even our head is suppressing news.
That said, I do not want schools to close or go part time, keyworker care last summer was horrendous for my mental health and I would resign before I did that again. Also mask wearing, I find it unbearable but am not exempt so I haven't been anywhere it is required if it became mandatory I would resign.
So while I agree with you the numbers do feel like they are being hidden, my experience of suffering from the virus, seeing how my colleagues including one ECV have recovered quickly and completely and no cases in our pupils I think primary schools are fine to stay open. I have no experience of secondary other than as a mother but I am not concerned about my children either, cases have been reported there bit not in vast numbers and no whole bubbles have had to shut.

@Belle0705

Why does every case need to end up in the local paper? Surely the effected families are notified. Why does the whole town need to know? Its not like its a surprise there's cases in the community. Are we going to continue losing our mind over every case?

I agree. It's laughable. The papers are loving it though.

Now media is obsessed with Long Covid because people stopped being so scared of Covid itself.

This is an excellent analysis of what is happening regarding schools.
twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=19

When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham...
Just how many of those actually have Covid-19 though compared with those who are just isolating as a precaution? The way most secondary schools seem to be set up, if you have one positive test then an entire year group (say 200 pupils) gets sent home. There must be around 250,000 school-age children in Birmingham so 5% sent home isn't very many if most are only isolating as a precaution.

Compare that with Newcastle University where there were 1,000 confirmed student cases in just a week out of a population of 27,000. Read again, 3% have actually had a positive test in the space of a week, God knows how many untested cases there are in addition.

Why are university cases being demonised compared with schools? Think about it, classroom education is an essential part of childhood development so a bit of collateral damage from schools reopening can be justified. University cases on the other hand are mostly being spread elsewhere, often in halls of residence when large numbers of students have knowingly broken the law.

Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Because it is a better measure of the spread of the virus. No one knows how many cases there actually have been (except in Luxemburg where pretty much the entire population has been tested at least once) but the positivity rate shows you how many of the suspected cases were actually Covid rather than normal coughs.

Sorry @noblegiraffe I see you linked to the twitter post in your op.
I better go an have another coffee.

Neurotrash

This is the chart that reassured on cases

Orange line is steady

Totally agree with everything you said OP. That graph Chris Whitty put up did seem very deliberately misleading. But the majority of people on here and in real life seem very intent on wanting schools to stay open. So maybe they are trying to please the majority? My preference is for schools to be open but only safely, and not in the face of a school outbreak

"I agree. It's laughable. The papers are loving it though.

Now media is obsessed with Long Covid because people stopped being so scared of Covid itself."

Its crazy. Its of no use to Fred and Margaret to know there's a case in the primary at the other side of the town. Covid is present in every community so it's useless info except for the families who are directly involved who will be notified. The people next door might have it or the man working in aldi... Should that be in the paper too? Why do we all need to know just because it's kids or school staff? We aren't notified of every other individual case in other places. I can understand if there was a large outbreak it being reported maybe. However in my DHs work theres loads of cases effecting lots of families and that's never in the news.

@Belle0705

Why does every case need to end up in the local paper? Surely the effected families are notified. Why does the whole town need to know? Its not like its a surprise there's cases in the community. Are we going to continue losing our mind over every case?

Agree it’s a non news story

If I was ECV I’d consider schools as serving 97% of population and speak to consultant re risk not look to news stories on local numbers.

I have every sympathy re risk in that situation