The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

I haven’t had time to look at or check ONS figures or digest them so I can’t add much to this sorry. But I do know that in general over 5% positivity rate in any population is considered not good as it means many are being missed.

Those are interesting graphs.

Looking at that, there is a huge rise in the 6th form/students, which has then tailed off.
Leaving the question of why it's tailed off: Are students not getting tested now, are measures isolating them working or did effectively the students in halls have either got it or are immune?

The secondary schools don't have as big a rise, but it is still significant and still rising, which is a bigger concern.

Primary school doesn't have as sharp a rise, but I'd say it's still at least doubled since 21st September, so in approximately 3 weeks, and again it is still rising.

Now I'd also say Primary schools (round here anyway) are more likely to be able to contain cases. They're typically smaller, but also children tend to stay with their form much more. So I would expect less rise there, as the contacts will be fewer.

I mean, in the US everyone was worried that Trump might have infected Joe Biden at their debate. They were at least 6ft apart and the debate was 90 min I think but with no masks (and aerosols are a transmission route) there was a lot of debate.

If this is up for debate, then there should be no question that secondary pupils in with 29 others in a much more confined space, for longer, with no distance, and probably louder volume, can catch it from each other.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-trump-could-have-exposed-biden-and-others-to-covid-at-the-debate1/

The problem is the 'bubble' approach doesn't really help that much if it spreads within a class and then they take it home to their siblings, who then take it into their bubbles and year groups.

Yeah, this bit of it makes no sense to me. You would think that with siblings in a school, if one is told to isolate, the other should too. So that IF the isolated child is positive, the second child won't take it to another bubble.

I had war with the school after DD was told to isolate as they had let some guy wander around 3 year bubbles who later turned out to be positive I thought the sensible way would be to keep DS home too to isolate, but I got blasted by the school for this, and threatened with a fine if he was not back in the next day.

I had war with the school after DD was told to isolate as they had let some guy wander around 3 year bubbles who later turned out to be positive hmm I thought the sensible way would be to keep DS home too to isolate, but I got blasted by the school for this, and threatened with a fine if he was not back in the next day.

I can’t understand why the school would get angry at you for this - unless I guess they were defensive because really they were being sloppy. It is such short sighted thinking. Like any other health and safety measure, the school have a duty of care.

@IceCreamSummer20

I had war with the school after DD was told to isolate as they had let some guy wander around 3 year bubbles who later turned out to be positive hmm I thought the sensible way would be to keep DS home too to isolate, but I got blasted by the school for this, and threatened with a fine if he was not back in the next day.

I can’t understand why the school would get angry at you for this - unless I guess they were defensive because really they were being sloppy. It is such short sighted thinking. Like any other health and safety measure, the school have a duty of care.

I know, was weird. To be fair it was the receptionist who shouted at me, and she seems quite antisocial at the best of times, it didn't come from a teacher.

But it turns out it is correct, that if a sibling is isolating, unless they get symptoms/positive test, other siblings are expected at school.

@NRatched

Of course what you say makes perfect public health sense. If they wanted to break transmission chains and lower infection rates then this is what they'd do.

What they're doing in schools is window dressing, nothing more. They're trying to pretend they have measures whilst spending no money and they just want to have enough pretence so that parents don't rise up and complain.

Now that infections are rising, the 'schools open as normal' thing is blatantly a lie - when a third of Liverpool students have been off isolating since the start of term - so 2 weeks lost at least.

Eventually the wheels will come off but by then the damage will have been done.

It really didn't have to be this way. The blinkered government and their scientific advisers. Why didnt they listen to head teachers and school staff? Even after the mess the country was in in March and April the same mistakes are going to be repeated. It seems as though action won't be taken with schools until the infection is out of control.

Yes I understand to a certain extent - but the criteria for isolating seems to be a bit random re schools at times. And I really do not understand why schools wouldn’t be okay with over caution - that is to be encouraged at least this term in the run up to Christmas. There is still so much we don’t know, flu season is coming, that threats about fines is appalling.

I’m not of the opinion that information is being suppressed however about schools. I think that there is an overplaying of how safe schools are in a patronizing way - in order to not panic parents. For me, and believe me I’ve trawled the evidence with a bit of a fine tooth comb, we still just don’t know enough. There isn’t strong evidence that schools are major drivers. However for me there isn’t strong evidence that they are never drivers or that transmission is so low that we ignore safety precautions. So for me, thinking about my child, I was happy to send him to school but ultimately pretty disappointed that almost no real effective safety measures were taken. And I would love some flexibility to be able to tell the school - numbers are very high - my child is being schooled at home for a month.

Why couldn’t we have some flexibility even just for a term? Everyone wins. Schools will have less students. Those who can handle a child at home can. Those who can’t or who have to work, have a safer environment for their kids. And if after Christmas, we know more about the risks we can relax a bit more then fine. Sorry... rant over!

My DD's school sent another letter today, the whole of year 10 is now out as well as half of year 7 and 8 members of staff.
As a disabled person it feels like utter lunacy to pack DD off on Monday crammed on a busy bus (sometimes standing room only) when it is almost certain there are multiple cases of Covid now in her school.
She won't be going in next week, if they fine us they fine us. I'll then reassess after half term.

It’s a good thing that half term is coming up and schools will be closed anyway for a week but it really would make sense to make it a two week half term for secondary to break this infection increase rate.

What they're doing in schools is window dressing, nothing more. They're trying to pretend they have measures whilst spending no money and they just want to have enough pretence so that parents don't rise up and complain.

@IloveJKRowling I want to SCREAM this from the rooftops. Sadly I actually think many parents don't care, they are secretly relieved not to have the kids around anymore. The problem is a huge part of society is being asked to sacrifice their lives and livelihoods so kids can go to school. Schools that are spreading this virus as 'hotspots' as Mayor of Liverpool said this morning. Blimey are the Us4Ourselves lobby so strong that their agenda is going to cause kids in unsafe schools with spreading virus and hospitality job losses galore. What a fucking mess!

Sadly I actually think many parents don't care, they are secretly relieved not to have the kids around anymore

Along with the ones who seem to think the word bubble means the virus doesn’t go there so it’s ok to do anything you like within the bubble in or out of school.

The problem is a huge part of society is being asked to sacrifice their lives and livelihoods so kids can go to school

Just as those children sacrificed their education for months in the spring and summer to protect a different demographic of society. Covid doesn’t typically harm children.

@TheNewLook zzzzzzz yes we all know that... but it harms others that they pass it on to. FGS!!! It doesn't magically stop infecting when it hits a child.

#dontmentiontheschools

@TheNewLook why don't you care about acceleration of community spread? I just don't get it. I mean, it's pretty obvious you don't give a shit about school staff but why not about the community...I don't understand your blanket robotic response at all.

By the way I am talking about more mitigations (blended learning and/or mask wearing at all times bar eating) for secondary schools.

I would disagree that they aren't actively suppressing the information about schools at this point.

Twitter is full of posts by headmasters who have been told by DFE not to report any further cases after the first one. So although they can tell how many schools are affected, they aren't measuring how badly affected.

Wow, you have read an awful lot into my short post. There is really no need to be so abrasive.

The comment I highlighted implies another section of society is being shut down to keep schools open - which section is this please? And why is their well-being more important?

It doesn’t help conversations when people hurl insults and read what they want into other people’s posts. Or have I stumbled into one of those coronavirus echo chambers where posters all just say the same thing and egg each other on?

@monkeytennis97

What they're doing in schools is window dressing, nothing more. They're trying to pretend they have measures whilst spending no money and they just want to have enough pretence so that parents don't rise up and complain.

@IloveJKRowling I want to SCREAM this from the rooftops. Sadly I actually think many parents don't care, they are secretly relieved not to have the kids around anymore. The problem is a huge part of society is being asked to sacrifice their lives and livelihoods so kids can go to school. Schools that are spreading this virus as 'hotspots' as Mayor of Liverpool said this morning. Blimey are the Us4Ourselves lobby so strong that their agenda is going to cause kids in unsafe schools with spreading virus and hospitality job losses galore. What a fucking mess!

I think it's clear from that but hospitality/gyms/arts to name a few.

It's not about wellbeing -it's about survival. Parents who will lose jobs and houses and children will ultimately suffer so much more because of this than going online for education (remember I am always talking about secondary!).

@TheNewLook

The problem is a huge part of society is being asked to sacrifice their lives and livelihoods so kids can go to school

Just as those children sacrificed their education for months in the spring and summer to protect a different demographic of society. Covid doesn’t typically harm children.

During that period everyone was under the same restrictions bar the shielded. Children didn’t sacrifice their education, not unless parents didn’t home school/assist with work set for them.

There isn’t strong evidence that schools are major drivers. However for me there isn’t strong evidence that they are never drivers or that transmission is so low that we ignore safety precautions.

Things may have moved on since then, but I remember before the first lockdown when schools closing was mentioned, the answer was for a while 'schools only account for 4% of spread' or something. Was a very low percentage anyway. I guess while hury is out on how infectious asymptomatic people actually are, we won't know much at all. If it turns out asymptomatic spread less, then it makes total sense that schools would be relatively low risk, given it appears the huge majority of kids (and younger people in general) do not get ill at all. Of course, better to be cautious than assume the best. In life I tend to take an 'assume the worst, then anything better is a bonus' mindset to many things. Some might say thats depressing but it stops me getting too dissapointed about certain things, and has done me well so far!

I am also not sure schools can be blamed for the rises as such, the rise in stats started ramping up the day the schools went back, however, we have been told again and again, that when new preventative measures taken, the results will not show in the stats until 3 weeks or so later. So it would stand to reason that when the stats start rising, you go back 3 weeks to find the reason for the rise. Which would say numbers were on the upturn before schools anyway, which again, would make sense given a load of extra people went back to work and we were all encouraged to go out to restaurants and such a few weeks before the rises..

I find it hugely shit though, that there is not more protection and funding. Even if it does turn out schools are as low risk as claimed, they still are a risk, even if its 4% thats something that would help if it was lowered. DSS and a few of his friends wanted to wear masks in lessons, and were told its not allowed! No idea why. I get not forcing the kids to all do it for hours on end, but if someone choses to, surely thats a good thing for everyone..

Just seems bonkers. Like a great many things during this ordeal tbh.

@NRatched masks are not allowed due to ridiculous government guidance..

I let them wear them though.

Haven't read the whole thread, but do you think primary or secondary transmission is the issue OP? x

'Face coverings would have a negative effect on teaching'

While some people can sound mumbly with them on, I cannot see it making that much difference, and honestly surely having to repeat yourself every now and again is much preferable to being at more risk from the virus. The only time I can see it would make a major impact, is in a school for kids with disabilities, or any school with deaf pupils who rely on lipreading..but in that situation common sense could be used and some workarounds found I am sure. So much shite the government comes out with confuses me in honesty. Like watching monkeys in a zoo at times.