The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

@FieldsAndSun

Haven't read the whole thread, but do you think primary or secondary transmission is the issue OP? x

From what can be gleaned from the available data, secondary and especially sixth form/FE.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4052530-NEU-calls-for-two-week-closure-for-secondaries-and-colleges-following-leap-in-infections

However the data for younger year groups could do with being more granular.

Info

Thank you Noblegiraffe Wil read the link x

Of course, better to be cautious than assume the best I completely agree. I could home school, it worked well for us. I have been optimistic and hoping that the lack of strong evidence around schools and transmission bears out. I want my children in school if I can.

What has had me exasperated and pretty surprised is how quickly many schools are just doing almost nothing - and not taking on board the increasing strong evidence around aerosols, ventilation and mask wearing which did come out pretty late from WHO. But it seems they are stuck in time, talking about cleaning sometimes and sometimes washing hands - and that seems that is it!

Until we get strong evidence that there is very, very low risk in schools, we need to up our game. I don’t know why there is so much resistance to this? It is also clear from the WHO and CDC and even ECDC that schools are relatively safe when community transmission levels around them are low. This is definitely not the case where I live, and I really did expect local schools to up their covid safety. Instead they all seem to have got more lax if anything.

Wanting better safety in schools is not unreasonable or hysterical. We are entering another surge in covid cases and a sensible review of schools is just obviously the right thing to do!

skwawkbox.org/2020/10/16/ons-100000-schoolkids-now-infected-with-virus-almost-a-third-of-all-cases/

So this is quite a political take on the situation.

But are they right about the ONS figures?

Things, apart from mandating masks, there is nothing schools can do to mitigate the airborne transmission. Govt guidelines specifically ban using or paying for extra rooms, and specifically ban rotas and, without extra funding, there is literally no way to afford socially distanced, smaller class sizes or outdoor covered learning, or some such solution.

This is not on schools. It is on govt.

@herecomesthsun

skwawkbox.org/2020/10/16/ons-100000-schoolkids-now-infected-with-virus-almost-a-third-of-all-cases/

So this is quite a political take on the situation.

But are they right about the ONS figures?

if those are correct figures and we have another week of school in many areas before half term, the school cases could double by half term. The kids are then spreading it at home and household members then spreading around in the community and work places. Restricting households from mixing will help but it's not enough. Many parents work in front facing roles in enclosed spaces where SD is not practical.

www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/sep/16/face-masks-coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield

Director of CDC saying face masks are probably better than the vaccine.

Older children and teachers should be wearing them.

In most countries now, they do. We are a complete outlier.

The son of my friends is 5 and wears one all day in school (plus socially distanced desk - this is a US state that's kept levels low with universal mask wearing) with absolutely no problem. He's been taught to be glad to do it to protect others. He has his favourite characters on his masks and thinks they're cool.

I really don't know what's wrong with us in this country, it should be a no-brainer.

Personally I think masks in corridors but not in class is sending the wrong message. It sends the message they're not really needed. As far as the virus is concerned, there may be more people mixing in corridors but it will never be for long. It's proximity, number of people and duration of exposure for droplets and aerosols and the latter is far more in the classroom.

Completely.

(I'm starting to see more and more people wearing those back stretchy ones that are far too big for their faces - on TV and elsewhere - that little just fall off their noses when they talk. Even TV presenters. Pointless)

@IloveJKRowling

Personally I think masks in corridors but not in class is sending the wrong message. It sends the message they're not really needed. As far as the virus is concerned, there may be more people mixing in corridors but it will never be for long. It's proximity, number of people and duration of exposure for droplets and aerosols and the latter is far more in the classroom.

Think they should be worn everywhere indoors in schools apart from eating. Pupils and teachers.

I agree. My teacher friend in Spain is shocked that they aren't worn in class. He hasn't had any cases at school.

Now this could be luck (though it's a high risk part of Spain) but with spiralling cases in my local schools, I'd favour this route.

What are cases like in Spain and Spanish schools generally?

@IloveJKRowling

www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/sep/16/face-masks-coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield

Director of CDC saying face masks are probably better than the vaccine.

Older children and teachers should be wearing them.

In most countries now, they do. We are a complete outlier.

The son of my friends is 5 and wears one all day in school (plus socially distanced desk - this is a US state that's kept levels low with universal mask wearing) with absolutely no problem. He's been taught to be glad to do it to protect others. He has his favourite characters on his masks and thinks they're cool.

I really don't know what's wrong with us in this country, it should be a no-brainer.

I have a very girly 8 year old DD who loves to accessorise.

She has some masks that match her school uniform and was looking forward to wearing them to school [cool]

She was however discouraged by the school line (and wouldn't want to be the only one)

I think she'd definitely wear masks if encouraged.

Apologies if this has already been posted, but latest data further breaks down infection rates according to age group, showing second highest rate in secondary aged children:

Thanks, Neb, that's the ONS survey data, but plotted on the same graph which makes it easier to see that secondary rates are increasing at a rate beyond that of other age groups.

So it can't be the universities or just community transmission.

@NebularNerd

Apologies if this has already been posted, but latest data further breaks down infection rates according to age group, showing second highest rate in secondary aged children:

Interesting and worrying data esp for high school but worth noting that in primary schools it does not mean that children are not infectious. It is therefore limited.

1. Children are at that age asymptomatic.
2. There is a report to say that children of any age are still able to transmit the virus to adults.
3. Primary schools are better at managing classes with bubbles ibut teachers will still be put at risk.

Children at any age are largely not affected so much. There is a study that Dr John Campbell highlights on you tube that suggests that Mulit inflammatory syndrome will increase as children are exposed to multiple virus in a class. There immune system then overreacts. Worth a watch.

*their

Nice graph @NebularNerd, clearly shows years 7 to 11 second most infected age group. However how do we know they are actually catching within schools though? They could just as easily be catching it in the pubs.

We currently have 4 teaching staff who have tested positive in the past week. None have had close contact with the other - different classes/roles.

No children have had a positive test so far, although a number of parents have. Most of the children who have had to SI haven't had symptoms so not tests.

The children could be carrying without symptoms but we will never know.

@2X4B523P

Nice graph *@NebularNerd*, clearly shows years 7 to 11 second most infected age group. However how do we know they are actually catching within schools though? They could just as easily be catching it in the pubs.

Or at university.

@2X4B523P

Nice graph *@NebularNerd*, clearly shows years 7 to 11 second most infected age group. However how do we know they are actually catching within schools though? They could just as easily be catching it in the pubs.

Yes, it must be because all these eleven year olds are going to pubs, since we all know they can't catch it in school! 🤪🙄

Italy is now considering closing high schools, after already closing those in the Campania region. Full announcement expected tomorrow.

All the teachers I know who have or have had it have ONLY been in school and nowhere else since March.