The rate of infections in schools is being suppressed from public knowledge

[noblegiraffe]

...claims Karam Bales of the NEU.

I’m pretty sure I agree. When the newspapers are going mad about university cases and 13,000 kids and 700 teachers being off school in Birmingham doesn’t make national headlines, then something dodgy is going on.

This twitter thread collates all the evidence and is pretty damning twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=21

My own thoughts:
Why are the government ignoring the WHO recommendations on masks?
Why have they stopped PHE deciding who is sent home when there are cases in schools setting up their own helpline instead which sends home far fewer kids?
Why are the figures not being presented in a way that makes it clear which cases are in schools and not universities?
Why did Chris Whitty use a graph of test positivity rates instead of actual infection numbers in his briefing when it came to claiming that schools aren’t an issue?
Why are they insisting that children only get a test if they exhibit one of the three main adult symptoms, ignoring that the majority of children who test positive don’t have any of them?
Why are they insisting on vulnerable children being sent in with the threat of fines for non-attendance?
Why did they spend the summer pretending that unions were blocking the re-opening of schools and then paying social media influencers to say schools are safe, without taking any steps to ensure that they are?
Why did they announce a Plan B of rotas for schools in tiers of lockdown and then never actually use it?
Why did they say that an effective test and trace system was vital to opening schools and then also say they were surprised when demand increased when schools opened?
Why do they keep saying schools are a priority and that be the only thing they say about keeping them open?

And where the fuck is Gavin Williamson?

In the interests of fairness/balance, if I were to catch it now, I couldn't categorically say it came from school. I have been elsewhere in the last 6 months, but as that pretty much amounts to dog walks in deserted country locations, the occasional drink in a pub garden, and a couple of outdoor BBQs with close friends/family, with masks worn/sanitiser liberally applied on any occasional foray into a shop, I would say that it's probably much more likely that my risk comes from mixing with dozens upon dozens of people in school 4 days a week.

As a teacher in the NE, restrict meant that I can only have catch it from:

School - I mingle closely, no SD, with a few different bubbles of children per week (about 8-12 in each) and closely bubbled with 16 staff.

My own children who go to school and nursery.

My husband who is director of a small company- most are working from home but have to sometimes go to the office. They've got lots of measures in place but obviously these can fail.

We aren't going to restaurants or museums. We have online shopping, occasionally going to a pharmacy.

The rule of 6 only came back in last week so we weren't seeing any one anywhere outside or inside, only the in-laws SD in a park every fortnight.

We've had a couple of cases at work among staff; both caught from children.

As far as I know I've not caught it yet .

I think you also have to throw in that children are more likely to have it asymptomatically.

So if I caught it it could be from:
dh
shopping
work
my dc

Dh is almost entirely working from home, and not going out other than that. Extremely unlikely.
Shopping: I'm being careful, not going out unless I have to and supermarket stuff is click and collect so only seeing (outside and at 2m distance) one person. Wearing mask and taking handgel with me. Very unlikely.
Work: We're wearing masks, wash hands (apart from one idiot who thinks he's exempt from restrictions if no one is looking-I have CCTV I can see!) keeping distance as much as possible. There's 7 people at work, and occasional outside contacts. Possible.
Dc: I have 2 at school (on at uni so not at home). They're in "bubbles" of year groups-that's 300 in ds' case (100 in dd's). There have been a few cases at school including in dd's year, but they're only sending home close contacts. Possible.

So let's compare work and dc.
Work: 7 people, 6 of whom I trust well enough to go home and test if there's any concern. Plus they're all older than me, and in various risk categories, which makes it less likely they'll be asymptomatic. Mask wearing compulsory. Two people have had tests, both were negative.

Dc: 300 people with ds, 100 with dd, about half go on the school bus with mixed years. More likely to be asymptomatic. No mask wearing and I'll be willing to bet not too much washing hands, and definitely no social distancing. Several positive tests round the school, including in dd's bubble (but her not a close contact).

Which is more likely to have given it to me if I do not have a known contact?

I would really like to see some funding for schools to be able to put in extra measures where they can. I teach in a primary school that due to falling numbers has a lot of spare classrooms. We could put the children into small bubbles of around 18 if we had the staff to do it. Of course we don’t. It wouldn’t work for everywhere but surely we should do this where we can?

I teach in a deprived area. Many grandparents are used for wrap around childcare because private nurseries or clubs are well beyond the means of people working on minimum wage or zero hour contracts. My own DC are looked after by a grandparent as one is disabled and can’t have his needs met in a nursery setting.

None of the teachers I know are seeing their friends and family members unless it's absolutely essential as they feel the risk of them having Covid-19 and passing it on is too high!

Pretty awful for teachers who don't have a choice though. I really feel for them.

Please consider signing and sharing this petition? It asks the government to allow parental choice on school attendance during Covid-19 and remove the threat of fines and deregistration. If parents who are in a position to facilitate home learning are allowed to do so, then it will reduce risk to staff and students who really have to be there! petition.parliament.uk/petitions/551740

I just feel so strongly that parents should be given a choice. For families where the risk level is high because a family member is vulnerable, or a grandparent has to do pick ups etc, it's a terrible position to be in.

For many families, that same grandparent could do home learning with the child in a much safer way! But LEAs are being very aggressive about fining for non-attendance. I think it's so wrong.

If DH or I catch it, it can only be from the DC. We've not changed what we do much since March - so only outdoor activities where we can SD. Lots of walks, tennis, etc. We get food deliveries.

Both WFH entirely.

So, if we catch it, it will be from DC in schools. They may well be asymptomatic but I bet they can still pass it on to us.

After March we have had zero communicable diseases until the kids went back. Within 3 days of being back at school DD2 had a virus (tested negative - we all had to isolate for a week while waiting to get a test and get results which was a huge pain) and we all caught it (fortunately only DD2 had a fever with it).

And a few colds since then.

I actually think it's really really rude and insulting to teachers to have this petty, nitpicking 'well you could have caught it elsewhere than in school' attitude.

Talk about denial of the obvious.

It's possible, sure, just like anything's possible, but given schools are the only places without masks and social distancing, and teachers are in school for HOURS a week (duration of exposure is important) with hundreds of people with no masks, no social distancing, rather than 5 min - half an hour in a shop with both - which is most likely?

@IloveJKRowling

I actually think it's really really rude and insulting to teachers to have this petty, nitpicking 'well you could have caught it elsewhere than in school' attitude.

Talk about denial of the obvious.

It's possible, sure, just like anything's possible, but given schools are the only places without masks and social distancing, and teachers are in school for HOURS a week (duration of exposure is important) with hundreds of people with no masks, no social distancing, rather than 5 min - half an hour in a shop with both - which is most likely?

The trouble is that in the end like doctors, nurses, care workers and bus drivers the statistics will show the truth; that teaching is a high-risk profession. But nothing is being done NOW before those deaths happen. It is really criminal.

@IceCreamSummer20

Of course, better to be cautious than assume the best I completely agree. I could home school, it worked well for us. I have been optimistic and hoping that the lack of strong evidence around schools and transmission bears out. I want my children in school if I can.

What has had me exasperated and pretty surprised is how quickly many schools are just doing almost nothing - and not taking on board the increasing strong evidence around aerosols, ventilation and mask wearing which did come out pretty late from WHO. But it seems they are stuck in time, talking about cleaning sometimes and sometimes washing hands - and that seems that is it!

Until we get strong evidence that there is very, very low risk in schools, we need to up our game. I don’t know why there is so much resistance to this? It is also clear from the WHO and CDC and even ECDC that schools are relatively safe when community transmission levels around them are low. This is definitely not the case where I live, and I really did expect local schools to up their covid safety. Instead they all seem to have got more lax if anything.

Wanting better safety in schools is not unreasonable or hysterical. We are entering another surge in covid cases and a sensible review of schools is just obviously the right thing to do!

Quite a lot of evidence to suggest it's high risk, actually -- just look at the rocketing case rates among secondary school students in the latest ONS figures!

I totally agree, we really need to look at what is working well in other countries and invest in it. At the moment it looks like the government is just happy to let it rip through the younger population, regardless of the unknown future risks infection may bring, and regardless of the community transmission from students to their wider families.

In the meantime, let's at least allow parents to make their own informed decisions rather than being gaslighted about there being no risk! Please sign and share to ask the government to allow parental choice and stop fining parents for non-attendance during Covid-19: petition.parliament.uk/petitions/551740

My hope is that we can keep the schools open. But to do that, we reall have to be transparent about the data and about what's working or not working, and invest in better risk mitigation!

In the school where I work, in addition to the student positive cases (a handful), 5 members of staff have so far tested positive.

Yet while in my kids’ school (quite a few student cases, don’t know about the staff) it is now masks everywhere except while eating and has been for a couple of weeks, where I work we are only now moving to masks in communal areas.

I don’t understand the reticence.

DH and I are both teachers (secondary).

We have not been to a shop, pub, restaurant since March.

We rarely see our adult son (once every 6 weeks or so).

We are currently seeing our other DC once a week (lives in a care home)

Not seeing any family (DPs/siblings) or friends.

We have enough exposure to be getting on with.

Just putting this here:

www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18801166.nearly-50-staff-great-sankey-high-school-self-isolating/
Nearly 50 staff at Great Sankey High School self-isolating

PUPILS across five year groups at a high school have been told to stay at home with nearly 50 members of staff in self-isolation.

And

As of yesterday, Friday, the Barrow Hall Lane school had a total of 48 members of staff absent – this number having more than doubled in a week, with a ‘significant proportion’ in self-isolation due to track and trace.

A letter sent to parents by headteacher John Shannon said: “Up to the end of September we had had only three Covid-19 cases – yet in the past five school days we have seen a rapid increase of 20 positive cases, with seven in the past 24 hours.

“As a result of this spike, we currently have approximately 30 per cent of our student community self-isolating.

“Alongside this, as of today we now have 48 members of staff absent – with this number more than doubling in the past school week, with a significant proportion being tracked and traced and being required to self-isolate in the past 24 hours.

Still not going to get into the chicken or egg argument over whether the school is spreading it or whether it reflects infections in the community.

But there's something going on for so many to test positive within such a short timeframe.

It sounds similar to what was happening in Rainhill High School (which isn't too far down the road in St Helens) and forced a full school closure for two weeks.

Either way i dont think that pattern is particularly good nor reassuring.

This school local to me has now closed for two weeks due to an outbreak:

www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/10/16/willenhall-school-to-close-after-mass-outbreak-of-covid-19/

@Motherrunner, very local to me too, such a big outbreak .

Really dreading tomorrow, DD has an outbreak in two year groups at her school now and we just don't feel we can send her in. They have been understanding but now have to mark any absence down as unauthorised. Not sure what is going to happen but I'm expecting harsh words from the school . I just want to get to half term when I'll have the time to make a decision about whether to send her back to main stream school at all this year or whether to pull her out.
I'm so sad, so stressed and not sleeping. I just want to go to sleep until Easter.

I see Italy are going to close secondary schools.

@Chickenandrice have you got a link for that? Thank you

Sorry I don’t know how to do a link on my phone. It was fairly near the top of the daily mail website (sorry!)

I also read Czech Republic switching to online learning for secondary. I think if more European schools do this then it will be seen as more necessary here and more widely accepted by the public.

The large secondary school that two of my dc go to has just closed until after half term. They had a couple of cases in Sept, and it seemed to ramp up a bit through October, each time with only close contacts sent home to isolate. Then last Thursday all of year 9 were sent home (including my ds), on Friday half of year 7 went, on Sat we heard about another year 9 student along with someone jn year 11 and a teacher. And today we had an email to say whole school closed due to widespread transmission, with a strong recommendation that ALL students now self-isolate for 14 days.
We are in a tier 1 area, although community transmission seems to be going up rapidly, currently around 122/100,000. Nothing at all reported in local papers about school bubbles bursting, year groups being sent home or full/partial closures. If I wasn't a secondary school parent I would have no idea it was happening.

@Chickenandrice thanks!

Interesting @pinkpip100 - I’d really like to have seen a dedicated analysis of schools ‘group’ - in the UK. It would have only taken a few good public health people, good links to all the epidemiological data and of course if we had it, a dedicated part of contact tracing to log in detail every related school case and also household cases of families where the ‘child transmission’ may have been missed.

It would really have made for a more solid watching of what is happening around schools. It is so frustrating as I find myself wanting more school protection but having very little data to back it up. But constantly being told there is no data about school transmission when it is clear that just logging the amount of kids with COVID in a school at one time is not enough.

@Chickenandrice in the same vein and closer to home. In Ireland all secondary school students and teachers wear masks all the time, for lessons and only off for lunch. I have a relative who teachers there. When I tell people this in UK they are completely amazed!

@RedToothBrush it is not reassuring at all - thanks for the link. It is an example that transmission can spread rapidly within a school.

I am hopeful still that transmission in schools is still, relatively lower than other public spaces, however it does make me feel uneasy. Particularly when I remember how some similar concerns about care homes were dismissed in March. I cannot believe for example how much the PHE report on schools, which was in May/June and a completely different scenario, is used to say that there is low transmission. That is not a robust scientific view.

I see it as a bouncing back and forth red.

The only reason schools aren't main drivers is because of the whole bubbles closing as a mini localised circuit breaker.

Without a doubt it would clearly go through the whole school otherwise and then further afield, even the bubble circuit breaker is clearly not enough in some areas.

Baring in mind low level, no or different symptoms to the main three we are encouraged to test for, especially in schools.