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What do you think tomorrow's announcement will be?

154 replies

paintmywholehousepink · 11/10/2020 20:52

Lock down?
No mixing households?

OP posts:
Chloemol · 12/10/2020 00:40

@CountessFrog

I rest my case

CountessFrog · 12/10/2020 00:45

What case is that?

That I won’t follow rules?

I have followed every rule. DH and I both work in senior, responsible NHS positions. We also live quite rurally and walk the dog 50km per week. You think I’m doing that in a mask?

LovelyLovelyMe · 12/10/2020 00:49

I just despair when I see crowds of people about-no masks, no distancing because whatever rules are brought in there will be a sizable number of people who just won't obey them, so it all going no-where.

I'd like to see a few arrests for breaking the rules and prison sentences, starting with the Scottish MP as a high profile example.

Surely, these Typhoid Marys can't be allowed to continue to endanger public health with impunity.

Torvean32 · 12/10/2020 02:32

Theres 2 main problems. The govt have fannyed around too long with restriction thst were obviously not working. Secondly there are too many ppl not SD or wearing masks. And your bars have not been regulated like in Scotland.

We had a harsh 3 weeks lockdown, and i mean lockdown not restrictions.
Your laws need to be mandatory not optional. The 3 weeks were hard but our numbers are now low.

If ppl followed the rules of a short lockdown it could improve within 3 weeks.

Sadly the numpties are making it difficult for us all.

Guylan · 12/10/2020 03:33

@Flaxmeadow

Guylan Thanks for the graphs. Interesting to see it like that but I still don't think we locked down as late as is often said. By number of deaths we locked down earlier than Italy? and before Ireland by date. I don't think there was much in any of it between most countries. We also already had some restrictions in place before the actual lockdown date. Closure of schools, bars and clubs.

Yes mistakes have been made with track and trace, but hardly anyone is using it anyway and I don't think that's because people have lost faith in the government. Partly maybe but not all of it.

@Flaxmeadow, the second picture shows Italy locked down 14 days after their third death whilst the U.K. locked down 15 days after their third death. The first picture breaks up the various lockdown measures and how many days after the third death a country locked down on each measure. The larger numbers in the second graph where Italy is ahead of U.K. is the number of cases at that point in time which was around mid May. As Italy’s epidemic began sooner than UK it is to be expected they would have had more cases in May. So the graph and table of different measures show Italy overall locked down slightly earlier after their third death than U.K after their third death, not much in it. However, as said, the difference was Italy’s epidemic started earlier than the U.K. and they warned the U.K. to lockdown earlier than they did and UK squandered that. Germany locked down earlier after their third death than Italy, Spain and France. If you look you can see Greece, Portugal and most of the Eastern European countries locked down much earlier on all measures and consequently had much less community spread.

A report done by SAGE at the start of September showed low adherence to self isolating when contacted by test and trace and told they needed to self isolate as identified as being near someone who tested positive. So that is not looking at how many use the new app but adherence to self isolating when told to. There will be more than one reason for this low adherence but the government’s poor handling of outbreak and the public’s subsequent loss of trust will I bet be a major contributing factor I believe. I can imagine people are seeing numbers going back up and think lock down didn’t work so why bother adhering to govt advice. However, lockdown did what is was supposed to - get virus case levels down significantly. What has gone wrong is the test/trace system that was meant to take over once lockdown measures were rolled back and that has been predominantly run by private companies contracted by the govt has not been functioning well. Testing capacity not sufficient, some people having to wait long time to get a test, or miles away, turn around for results too slow when they do get one. Local public health directors said they would be able to do the testing and contact tracing better as they know their area but govt ignored this using private companies instead. So I am speculating as people see numbers rising they are losing trust in public measures and hence lower adherence to following self isolating than is needed. Also people have not been financially supported to self isolate for two weeks when contacted and told to do. Others have chosen to try and not be traced, giving false details before app launched in September and then not using it since it has been launched.

The problem in my view goes back to the govt wrongly handing lucrative test/trace contracts to private companies which have subsequently under performed meaning the govt have have been on the back foot and reacting piece meal to rising numbers in areas. It’s created so many different rules and I think people are losing trust and so less willing to adhere to advice as feel govt are not in control. Govt need to build up public trust.

PhilCornwall1 · 12/10/2020 03:37

@RLOU30

Whatever it is will end in tiers
👍👍
Guylan · 12/10/2020 03:37

@Flaxmeadow, apologies, said something wrong above, the 2nd picture shows number of deaths at around mid May. Still applies that Italy would have had more deaths at that time as their epidemic started earlier than U.K. Currently months on U.K. have a higher death rate than Italy.

Finally, both the photos I attached don’t show Ireland so I can’t say when they shut down compared to England, I think I recall on some measures later and others sooner. Don’t have the details.

IHateCoronavirus · 12/10/2020 04:53

@Torvean32

Theres 2 main problems. The govt have fannyed around too long with restriction thst were obviously not working. Secondly there are too many ppl not SD or wearing masks. And your bars have not been regulated like in Scotland.

We had a harsh 3 weeks lockdown, and i mean lockdown not restrictions.
Your laws need to be mandatory not optional. The 3 weeks were hard but our numbers are now low.

If ppl followed the rules of a short lockdown it could improve within 3 weeks.

Sadly the numpties are making it difficult for us all.

This! Before they even get to the pups etc, The school run is full of people who meet up with their mates to chat as a bubble while waiting. Yesterday 11 neighbour children (from 6 different schools) were kicking a ball about the street, tackling each other etc. Two of those are supposed to be self isolating as their bubbles have popped. We live in one of the areas with the highest rates of infection. At the moment we are not meant to be seeing anyone outside of our bubbles full stop!
herecomesthsun · 12/10/2020 04:54

It would be nice if they all resigned,

IHateCoronavirus · 12/10/2020 04:56

They do it because they know they’ll get away with it. Even my own bloody mother doesn’t get the rules (ex head) and has forged herself quite an extensive bubble, because this one is single or thAt one needs picking up from school.

walker1891 · 12/10/2020 05:29

DazzlingDaisies and Hopewithfeathers

So true! The teachers and unions predicted this. They pushed and pushed and were vilified. It was disgusting what the general public said and did to them during that time. And the level of hatred on here that was spouted too. Now there is no plan B because they were that hell bent on getting schools open with no back up we are now in a mess like this.

There are lots of options, yes schools need to stay open but there needs to be some measures in place or the spread will continue to increase. part time like in June worked, open weekends and get in extra teachers and spread the kids thinner. Ensure Y11/Y13 are spread thin but in full time. Give schools extra space - cabins etc to allow smaller bubbles. Give them money to clean. Give them better access to testing.

Whatever it is, education need to be the focus for better measures to reduce the spread right now otherwise they will be closing come Christmas as they will be overwhelmed. We don't want that to happen.

Mimishimi · 12/10/2020 05:36

Jackboots

ShinyGreenElephant · 12/10/2020 07:26

Everything @CrappleUmble says is right. And @herecomesthsun has my favourite prediction

ShinyGreenElephant · 12/10/2020 07:28

Oh and @walker1891 is completely right too, its coming from schools because the government won't put any money into making them safe. Teachers predicted this all along and we were called lazy cowards

notevenat20 · 12/10/2020 07:36

I called northerners whiners, 15 million people, and I'm a northerner too. But you made a direct personal attack

There is a reason they invented blocking on social media. I feel MN should just bar people who make direct personal insults. There is a lot of it about.

HeronLanyon · 12/10/2020 07:44

‘Comply or consequences’

poshme · 12/10/2020 08:09

If they say masks outside everywhere I won't be doing that.

Live rurally, often walk round lanes and see not a single other person.

Work in an office- usually totally alone.
Not wearing masks for no reason.

CrappleUmble · 12/10/2020 08:11

@Flaxmeadow

No it didn't. There's a full breakdown from page 26 of the Commons briefing below. They split the north into three regions and all were majority Labour

Constituents win elections via their constituency. Not some through some bonkers heptarchy

Labour was thrashed in the last election in the north of England. Everyone knows this.

Nope. Labour not only won more constituencies in the north of England, but got more votes. There is no measure by which the Tories were the most successful party in the region. Why on earth are you trying to argue with me about this when you obviously haven't checked the figures? It's a verifiable fact.

Page 26 onwards of this Commons briefing has the vote percentages too.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8749/

Labour got a higher percentage of votes in both the north west and north east, and the slightly higher Tory vote in Yorkshire wasn't enough to make that up (the north west was nearly 10% more Labour than Conservative so they would really have struggled to neutralise it).

Bouledeneige · 12/10/2020 08:39

Well that got nasty quickly. I think the reasons for differential lockdown make sense though clearly its going to be contentious which are categorised in which tier and what financial compensation will be made available. Also, at what stage will these lockdowns be lifted - that will be a difficult decision. We don't yet know how long these restrictions will last - I've seen anything from 1 - 3 months mooted. Its certainly not going to be over anytime soon. What's clear judging by posts on here is the spirit of community seen at the beginning of lockdown seems to have deserted us.

I think the causes of the resurgence are more complex than simply saying its all the governments fault (and I'm not a fan of the government) or particular groups of people's fault. Its a virus that hasn't gone away and how to control its spread is still being learnt.

  • It was always predicted that there would be a number of successive waves to the virus like the Spanish flu (the second wave was worse than the first). Its just arguable what constitutes a continuation of the first wave rather than a second wave. But the virus was not stamped out completely before lockdown eased - as it wasn't really anywhere except NZ. Other countries are also seeing a resurgence in cases.
  • Rates in the summer were bound to go down whatever action was taken by the government. People complained bitterly about the crowds outside but transmission is low in the open air.
  • Rates were always predicted to rise in winter with the combined effects of flu, colds and respiratory issues and more people being indoors where transmission is higher. These happen every year affecting the elderly and put care homes and hospitals under severe pressure. We are not at the winter pressures high point yet.
  • The easing of lockdown may have happened too early for northern cities where the virus had yet to take hold.
  • People going on holidays out of area or abroad may well have been exposed and brought back Covid to their area. Airports and airplanes offer lots of indoor transmission opportunities.
  • More people in the north have jobs that require you to go to work. Or put it the other way, more people in the south have jobs that can be performed at home - the Sunday Times had stats on this. This means more people in the south could avoid travelling to work on public transport and being in places of work. Hence the centre of London is still very quiet sending Pret A Mange's profits into freefall......
  • Return to school and university was inevitably going to increase transmission. It doesn't much matter for the young people affected - but it does for who they come into contact with. So it matters how teachers, professors, school cleaners and parents are protected and behave to protect others. Masks and gloves matter. Blaming students seems pretty unfair - funnily enough if you lock lots and lots students into high density accommodation the virus spreads but largely the high risk areas map regional trends. There are a lot of students in London for instance but not high rates at the moment.
  • However the places with the highest rates of transmission, based on data shown to MPs last week, are bars and pubs followed by restaurants. So people not giving true phone numbers to track and trace will have helped transmission go unchecked. Track and trace can only work if people give up their correct data.
  • Finally, we had less draconian restrictions than other countries like Italy and Spain where people were prevented from leaving towns, cities and regions by the police, from going more than 200 metres from their door and were required to wear masks everywhere outside the home.

I'm not sure of the evidence on compliance - clearly the US has been poor but I'm not sure on how badly the Brits have actually behaved compared with other countries with similar rules. Everyone likes to blame someone else. But our rules were not as strict as some other countries. .

Legoandloldolls · 12/10/2020 09:09

If they make masks compulsory everywhere then I will just make one more suited to walking around my rural village. It would be pointless if you dont come across anyone, so it could be one layer of thin material. I rarely see people walking here and they normally move out into the road.

Rather than total refusal if it's a new law you could just wrap a scarf around or pull up a turtle neck jumper.

Anyway it's not worth stressing over. Most rural places must be like here, you only see a police car if there has been a death or break in. I'm more likely to win the lottery than bump into police walking around my village. Even in both the nearby towns the PCOs have gone. English law is only enforced largely by majority compliance.

I was quite shocked back in my hometown at good 1/3 wasnt in masks in town centre and freely going about like that. So it's unlikely to be enforced on residential streets, woodland walks either.

CrappleUmble · 12/10/2020 09:15

I certainly wouldn't blame students, their living conditions are what they are, but it's really striking that if you look at a map of Greater Manchester the case numbers essentially reflect where the students live. For example, Fallowfield ward had over 600 new cases last week. That's where Owen's Park is. It is very clear that students arriving is what was driving a significant part of the increase in late September- first week of October.

Bouledeneige · 12/10/2020 09:31

Yes I agree its not surprising that there are some hotspots where students live in the affected cities. Fallowfields is clearly a big hot spot for both Manchester Uni and Manchester Met student accommodation.

Its inevitable that in areas of northern cities where rates were rising to have a large increase in the population being crammed into high density housing and locked in together when any cases occur that they would all catch it. Being locked into their accommodation they are being forced to catch it. Rates were already rising compared with the south as the students were arriving back. Its not clear yet however that the students have spread it to the rest of the population given many are effectively imprisoned. It just means they have been tested.

I don't actually think its a bad thing if they all have it before they return home for Christmas. The problems will occur if some return home for Christmas to extended families with the virus. Without antibody testing we will need to keep control on the size of groups mixing indoors at Xmas to prevent transmission to older people. Inevitably that means cutting out elderly people from social gatherings.

MakeAPeaCry · 12/10/2020 09:37

Yes mistakes have been made with track and trace, but hardly anyone is using it anyway and I don't think that's because people have lost faith in the government. Partly maybe but not all of it.

Approx 24% of people in the UK have downloaded the English-developed or Scottish apps. (Incidentally these two apps do not talk to each other - a fact that should be embarassing to both developers.). That's way higher than the average uptake in other European countries with a similar app scheme (average = 9%) and more impressive considering the bloody English app is not compatibale with around 20% of phones - inc those on sale as recently as 2-3 years ago.

The mistakes made have been massive, not just minor errors.

  • the £11m wasted trying to force development of a centralised data app that passed your data back to a central office, which was abandoned in favour of the local data model, in which data remains on your phone. This created a sense of mistrust in both intention and capability.
  • the well reported use of excel as the data repository; that is school-grade naivety. It literally is "developed in a bedroom" level of skill. Because of the way Excel was developed and then 'retro-fitted' to try and be a 90s database, it is vulnerable as a roast chicken alone in a room with a hungry dog
  • the above mentioned compatibility with the Scottish app that means anyone who crosses the border reguarly (work/home etc) has to use both. Talk about advertise that the left hand hasn't got a clue what the right hand is doing.
  • the above mentioned compatibility with 'older' phone models which automatically rules out at least 20% of people from using it. Rather suggests the government was never aiming for everyone to use it.
  • the false positives the app seems to produce that brings up a banner to say you have been exposed to covid, only for them to vanish and never be seen again
  • the fact that the app does not acept NHS test results, so anyone tested in a hispital lab etc, is excluded. Only those tests performed by the (paid a lot of tax money) privae company engaged by government are accepted

If that alone wasn't good enough reasons for mistrust, add to it:

  • £3bn covid-related spending that has "gone missing" by being awarded without proper tender process
  • the sheer number of times covid money sees to have been spent on Tory mates. e.g. £115m paid to a brand new company with absolutely no history of manufacturing ANYTHING, to produce PPE. Whilst neglected more established (British) companies who DID have PPE experience. That brand new company = owned by a Tory peer associate. There are so many examples of this.
  • the amont of times MPs and their family/mates/masters have been caught flouting or really stretching rules with no come back at all

It's no wonder that when the government says "stay indoors" everyone runs out. If they told me Christmas was on the 25th December I'd start making festive plans for May.

So, if the uptake is higher than average and there are good reasons why another 20% of people cannot use the app and the reasons for mistrust are plentiful, serious and widely known - seems that might account for the remainder not using the app.

CrappleUmble · 12/10/2020 09:46

The rates were already increasing in lots of areas of Manchester because of schools going back, but it's possible to identify specific local spikes that are obviously student related. Fallowfield only being one example, there's the student areas round Salford Uni too.

In respect of the wider points about blame, there are certainly people in the north (as elsewhere) who have acted very irresponsibly. I presume we have the usual quota of people who don't give a shit, conspiracy theorists and of active sociopaths who if they thought they had the virus would go out and spread it on purpose. It would be odd if we didn't.

What needs to be understood here however is that the UK went into this pandemic in a particularly bad position to weather it compared to other similarly developed countries, and a great deal of this is because of the political climate and reforms of the last decade. The north has suffered more than average because of this, and the decision of the government to impose decisions centrally and bypass local elected leaders in the northern lockdown areas is clear and telling.

So we cannot divorce the low compliance rates with isolation requests from the increase in zero/low hour contracts over the last decade, as people are worried about not getting more hours in future if they don't go in. The widespread ignoring of the rule not to use informal childcare in private homes in Greater Manchester was intrinsically linked to the way in which formal childcare is unaffordable for large swathes of the population, due to wage stagnation. If you pursue Londoncentric transport policy, people in many towns in the north are prevented from accessing better paid work in Manchester and Leeds (the sort of jobs that you can do remotely...) so you end up with areas where few people are able to earn an income from home.

These things are all about politics, about what the last ten years of government policy, and sometimes more, have done. It's interconnected. No analysis can succeed without them, and they're much more important than some absolute twat in Bolton deciding to go on a pub crawl when he was supposed to be quarantining.

That said, I do see why people are keen on the narrative that if we northerners would all just behave ourselves, we could make the virus go away. It's much more palatable than, we live in a region that has been and continues to be so significantly shat on that it's endemic now, and local lockdown isn't going to solve that. The narrative that we have done this to ourselves, while wrong, at least places us as being in charge of our own story. The prospect of that level of agency is attractive.

lakesidewinter · 12/10/2020 12:04

I'm not sure of the evidence on compliance - clearly the US has been poor

I wouldn't agree with this.
I think that rules have varied hugely State to State.
I can't speak to compliance in other States but my State has the 3rd largest city in the USA and I haven't seen anyone without a mask in a shop for months.
But there has been a well publicized campaign about the need to do that.
Most shops have notices reminding people to do that.
You do need simple clear messages which become the social norm through reinforcement.

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