Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

• I know the R rate isn't a physical thing.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-five-of-top-european-covid-19-hotspots-in-north-of-england-12099132
Coronavirus: Five of Europe's top COVID-19 hotspots are in the north of England
Concern for people aged over 65 is growing as cases surge across Europe in that age group.

Merseyside is third behind Madrid and the Estonian region of Ida-Viru.

Anecdata re the ONS survey but we are participating and both our primary age children are doing it too! Our eldest hates the test but wants the money and our youngest is actually surprisingly fine with the test, nose and throat! (Eldest will only have nose done)

Just a couple of science articles to drop in today:

'Face masks: what the data say'
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

'Schools aren't super-spreaders'
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/
Note: this is one article reporting on one study with preliminary evidence.

I have to confess I'm still a bit skeptical about the evidence on schools, secondaries in particular. Why are 16-18 year olds so different from the 18-24 year olds which are currently driving the infection rate? Purely physically speaking they should be similarly susceptible to infection and similar to transmit to others. Is it socially related, as in they are still having to live with their parents, and follow rules more closely, not able to see their peers? Is it the lack of pubs/clubs that they can get into?

I also worry that because testing capacity is limited, and that under 18s are much more likely to be totally asymptomatic, only mildly symptomatic, or even atypically symptomatic, their true infection rate isn't being captured.

a drop thank goodness to 13864 cases.
However the deaths is the highest I've seen in a while at 87.

There might be a bit of a flattening in cases these last few days. I really hope so.

@Frazzled2207

a drop thank goodness to 13864 cases. However the deaths is the highest I've seen in a while at 87.

There might be a bit of a flattening in cases these last few days. I really hope so.

Saw that, do we think they've filled all the columns on the excel spreadsheet now....

You seem determined that children are asymptomatic and super spreaders. Please provide the evidence!

I have NEVER said that. To be clear I don't believe that. However, as you say ONS say they have similar infection rates to everyone else. Therefore I think they should have similar risk reduction measures to everyone else and schools should be funded to do this.

I do not think there is enough evidence to support the government's assertion that schools are safe and children don't spread it.

I don't think they're super spreaders. But I do think they can spread it to vulnerable teachers and parents - and the government is not accepting this.

ECV parents and teachers are not allowed to keep their kids at home / stay at home, and GPs have been told not to give them letters to support them in doing so.
www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/09/parents-in-england-refusing-to-send-their-children-back-to-school?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR15cARiDr8w0cX4wyKSf_oP1bEHofgFk-eH-VW9vXbUlrWcCbKKErKwmu8

I think EITHER schools should be safer (via extra funding - as done in many countries) AND/OR vulnerable families should be allowed to keep children home and teachers work from home - ideally supporting vulnerable families with home learning, as happens in Germany.

I really don't understand why everyone is accepting this situation. It's inhumane. People who were shielding are being told they have to send their kids to school or face fines / losing school places.

Scotland sees an increase.
Wales sees an increase.
Northern Ireland sees an increase.
England sees a decrease.

Let's hope England hasn't lost its tests down the back of the sofa again.

@Frazzled2207

a drop thank goodness to 13864 cases. However the deaths is the highest I've seen in a while at 87.

There might be a bit of a flattening in cases these last few days. I really hope so.

Something when relief is felt at 13k cases isn't it?

Daily tests processed is definitely increasing - always above 250,000 since the beginning of October and 285k yesterday. It was about 180k at the beginning of September when there was the back to school test rush. Everyone will be watching closely to see if they get to 500,000 by the end of the month as promised, but i will put money on that being the 'capacity' (which is always less) than the actual tests processes.
However I really hope they also work on speed of tests as well as number as people far more likely to get a test and self isolate in the meantime if they know they will get a result quickly, IMO.

My DH is a military pilot. They were on standby during the peak in March and April to move patients or equipment as needed. They weren’t used.

Why are 16-18 year olds so different from the 18-24 year olds which are currently driving the infection rate?

They're not, and let's remember that FE college students will be mainly living at home.

A teacher on mn somewhere noted that students were hiding symptoms from parents as they'd heard the test hurt.

@conkersarebonkers

Scotland sees an increase. Wales sees an increase. Northern Ireland sees an increase. England sees a decrease.

Let's hope England hasn't lost its tests down the back of the sofa again.

as i said before if they do I very much doubt they will admit it again.

Sounds credible @NeurotrashWarrior - I'm sure there are lots of parents / adults generally not going for tests because they've heard it's unpleasant.

It would be interesting to see how much take up rate (for those with symptoms!) increased if less invasive tests were brought in.

Cases might not be as bad as yesterday but I suspect they’re still NW focussed, see screenshots of the map from Sunday morning, Monday and today

We've had a parent refuse to test her child who was off with a bad cold and cough. Not sure of the reasons, it was at the time we were being strongly urged NOT to test if runny nose. But the next week the bubble closed as two staff members tested positive. We have absolutely no idea if that was Covid obviously.

If the nightingales are ever too be used they may be staffed with military people - but I dont think we have any specialist military hospitals left now. No idea how many helicopters we have capable of moving people.

I imagine Germany sent staff with the trains as they'd be managing the patients in future and would want a handover/ to make sure they had the patients records. We dont normally move patients around by train so wont have any equipped to move patients. It could be done - in the same way as the Nightingales were built but then not used because there is not some magical reservoir of staff.

The NHS has been underfunded and deliberately run down. People voted for it, they are getting what they voted for. The staff will go above and beyond to try and manage but they are not superhuman.

The position is pretty dire unless folk in the north stop acting like idiots.

Presumably you refused to have the child in school, @NeurotrashWarrior ?

@SarahMused

The situation in Sweden is a lot more nuanced than people realise. They had a very mild flu season prior to covid arriving (as did the UK). All cause mortality this year is not exceptional and lower than several of its neighbours that are frequently lauded for their approach to tackling covid. This makes me think that they may have been counting covid deaths in a more inclusive way. The other argument I often see when Sweden is mentioned is population density. However more Swedes live in cities than do in the UK. *@HaroldOfW* on twitter has been a great follow for getting the Swedish perspective on their measures. The chart below shows all cause mortality in Sweden over the last few years. The year that stands out is 2019 which is much lower with a return to more normal levels this year.

It's probably been pointed out by someone else by now but it's massively deceptive to compare 2020 when other years as we're only part way through the year.

Wonder how many of these are Uni students. I read yesterday that Newcastle and Northumbria had 1600 students test possible in a week.

There are 100 plus universities in the UK so it must be a fair proportion

The position is pretty dire unless folk in the north stop acting like idiots

I don’t think that’s helpful. Years of underfunding of education and health and housing services have left vast swathes of communities round here undereducated and overcrowded. It simply isn’t possible to have a job that enables you to work from home via a computer if you cannot read, do not have internet and share a house with too many people to have quiet space. Also, working from home jobs don’t appear from nowhere, if you’ve been a plumber for 25 years you aren’t going to suddenly be something else because of covid.

What do you suggest calling people like this www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/healthy-man-29-sends-coronavirus-22744961

[quote alreadytaken]What do you suggest calling people like this www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/healthy-man-29-sends-coronavirus-22744961[/quote]
Oh my goodness 'sharing ten pound notes'!

GetAMove I think that is a fair comment.

But the North is not the only area to be underfunded.

We can't ignore that many people in the North seem to be ignoring the rules. Its the same everywhere but at the moment the area suffering most re Covid.

Why are the local politicians not calling this out at the same times as blaming government? I recall an interview on BBC I think with Liverpool mayor. He mentioned Unis, schools going back and peopme going back to work as the reason for the spike. At no point did he mention people not socially distancing.

I live near Birmingham, a place that has also been forgotten about tsince year dot. And a place that has had problems with Covid infection rates, but doesn't seem to be going the same way as the North West.

I'm not sure what the difference is?

www.schools.nyc.gov/school-year-20-21/return-to-school-2020/health-and-safety

I found this online about when NYC will close schools...

"Schools will need to close if New York City meets the following: The percent of positive tests in New York City is equal to or greater than 3% using a 7-day rolling average. If we cross this threshold, schools will close."

Interesting info on that page about testing and also a range of different scenarios for what could happen (one or two children testing positive for example) and the action the school is required to take in each case.

Clear and transparent.