Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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However that is surely the case elsewhere too. Students from Leeds studying in Bristol or London etc.

"We cant ship people around the country as we dont have enough ambulances and ambulance staff to even get people to their nearest hospital promptly"

If we copy some other countries, we need ambulances to take them to the nearest railway station, to specially reserved and equipped trains

It is frustrating to keep being told that the NHS and the UK generally cannot manage things that comparable countries do
Have there been feasibility studies done by anyone ?

@cathyandclare

However that is surely the case elsewhere too. Students from Leeds studying in Bristol or London etc.

.... It would distort stats in some boroughs, either up or down We just have the one example quoted of Richmond, but there would be others

We really need to know student stats, to assess how big a driver they are and develop masures
It would help to have more frequent figures for age 18-21/22

There are special ambulances that transfer patients around.... my baby was transferred last year as only regional hospitals have Paed ICU. I was lucky to get her a bed within region, when the decision was made to intubate we were told we could end up anywhere. She was taken to Oxford, there was mainly babies within nhs region but there was one from south west as theirs was full and there was nearly one brought from Scotland, last minute they managed to get a bed in Manchester.

So the service already exists separate from the standard ambulance service that goes to 999 calls. However does it have the capacity? That's another question.

Re the ons survey a few additional points

• we don’t know how many children are in it but they are attempting to make sure it is a representative sample of the population (so have the same percentage of children as in the general population), it’s invitation only and not volunteers. They are also seeking to expand it over time. If you want a random selection of any age group (including children) and not one relying on symptoms it’s probably the best data set we currently have in a U.K. context.
• I am only talking about infection rate - how many children currently have the virus. Obviously this impacts on spread- if you don’t have the virus then you are not going to give it to anyone but it would be impossible from this data to draw conclusions re are children who get the virus spreading it from this data. it’s more a case that despite the lack of mitigation measures in this age group children do not seem to get it in particularly larger numbers than age groups taking significantly more mitigation measures.

Oh and Also obviously this does not suggest “children don’t get it” just that “children are less likely to get it” than many other age groups.

@BigChocFrenzy

"We cant ship people around the country as we dont have enough ambulances and ambulance staff to even get people to their nearest hospital promptly"

If we copy some other countries, we need ambulances to take them to the nearest railway station, to specially reserved and equipped trains

It is frustrating to keep being told that the NHS and the UK generally cannot manage things that comparable countries do
Have there been feasibility studies done by anyone ?

They still have to have all the support staff (it's not paramedics that do ICU transfers) to attend to them on the journey plus specialised mobile equipment for the transfer. It's not just the vehicle

@RP131 is not impressed by the Whitty slide shared with northern MPS:

Where do I start? Not sure it says 30% of exposure is in pubs bars & restaurants. But also can't tell what it does actually say as it's really not clear about what the figures represent. Also note the scientific approach of "other countries are doing it"

This was shared on the stream, from the latest surveillance release:

Hospital transfers could also be done via military ambulances and airlifts, as well as high-speed trains

As this was quickly done for hundreds of ICU patients from other countries to Germany, with journeys of sometimes > 1,000km, it should be possible within the UK

"Students in London may be recorded at their home address - so there may be students in London with their address reported as Leeds, Exeter, Manchester and Durham. Shouldnt think there will be lots living in Richmond but that could affect other London boroughs."

I think this is what has got the Richmond Council leader excited - with relatively few students living in Richmond but an awful lot of student "exports", the impact of students testing positive in their uni towns but recorded in Richmond is likely to be significant. One of my children tested positive in their uni city this week, so this is very pertinent!

@pussycatinboots

Red I could get from Crewe to Chester in a car in 35 by breaking the speed limit, but believe me, it would be bouncy in the back of an ambulance. The roads are absolutely shit, single lane, through villages, full of lorries.

You arent going crewe to chester. You are going Liverpool, halton or knowsley to crewe or chester. Or Warrington to crewe or chester. All of which are north of the ship canal.

If you had one accident either around one of the Halton Bridges or the Thelwall Viaduct, you've potentially got a monumental issue on your hands if the Liverpool, Halton, Knowsley and Warrington are up to their necks already and cant take anymore emergencies.

You could go north but you are going into other nearby hospitals who aren't far behind in problems so it would depend on whether shit hits the fan all at the same time OR you get a staggered peak in the Mersey area. At the moment it looks like it will be a fairly simultaneous problem which is a worst case scenario.

The quirks of NW geography and case distribution...

... And the 30 year old debate ongoing debate about lack of transport infrastructure over the Ship Canal.

With regard to Richmond there was certainly a lot of socialising here in the run up to students going back to uni. The numbers here seem to be growing fast
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-cases-wealthy-boroughs-a4567161.html

@BigChocFrenzy

Hospital transfers could also be done via military ambulances and airlifts, as well as high-speed trains

As this was quickly done for hundreds of ICU patients from other countries to Germany, with journeys of sometimes > 1,000km, it should be possible within the UK

Imo NW options are only helicopter or military if we are into the scenario im fearing.

@BigChocFrenzy

Hospital transfers could also be done via military ambulances and airlifts, as well as high-speed trains

As this was quickly done for hundreds of ICU patients from other countries to Germany, with journeys of sometimes > 1,000km, it should be possible within the UK

You still need the specialist transfer nurses and the mobile ventilation equipment.... do we have enough of this?? Hopefully they will have been preparing 🤞

I think the postcode issue may turn out to be another significant blunder with being able to track cases. It might be linked to where you are registered with a GP I guess as they ask for your nhs number when you book a test. Not sure quite how it works but I know when my Dr daughter went for a test at her hospital drive through they had her old postcode in London where she was a medical student and is still signed on with a GP. Interesting to find out though.

With the military transfers of patients to Germany, there were military medical staff accompanying the patients

Are Uk military doctors & paramedics being used for something else already, or could they be used for this

transfers should be done before capacity in the NW becomes an emergency

@BigChocFrenzy

"We cant ship people around the country as we dont have enough ambulances and ambulance staff to even get people to their nearest hospital promptly"

If we copy some other countries, we need ambulances to take them to the nearest railway station, to specially reserved and equipped trains

It is frustrating to keep being told that the NHS and the UK generally cannot manage things that comparable countries do
Have there been feasibility studies done by anyone ?

Bcf the issue with rail is where stations are and how you have to transfer due to where routes from those stations go.

Its generally quicker to go direct by road if you are talking about Knowsley because by the time youve faffed about getting a patient from hospital to the station and then got the pick up at the other end its not any quicker than if you load into a military vehicle directly from one hospital to another. Even if you have a reserved train service.

@BigChocFrenzy

With the military transfers of patients to Germany, there were military medical staff accompanying the patients

Are Uk military doctors & paramedics being used for something else already, or could they be used for this

transfers should be done before capacity in the NW becomes an emergency

Do you have any idea how short the military are? Especially in specialised roles. That will not be happening here.

Do you have any idea how short the military are? Especially in specialised roles. That will not be happening here.

Great we are fucked.

Tried to see if this has been repeated elsewhere but

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/stats-show-how-hard-north-19078989

The highest R rates - which show how many people an infected person roughly transmits onto - were in the north west with 1.27, second to Yorkshire and The Humber with 1.37.

London, on the other hand has an R value below 1, suggesting the outbreak in the capital is shrinking.

Scientists say the UK-wide R rate is between 1.2 and 1.5.

This is down slightly on last week when it was between 1.3 and 1.6.

Which I guess is a small bit of good news.

@BigChocFrenzy
I made this point a few threads earlier and hoped that by now this will have been somewhat resolved.
Living in Richmond: I fully understand numbers going up. :(
The postcode blunder is not just what you mentioned, but also re:schools/unis who don't have their own test facilities. Richmond has a high concentration of private schools where full London is the catchment area. Many secondaries (25+) with multi borough catchment areas. The kids indect here - in the shop, on the bus,...etc- but are being recorded shown in their home postcode.* Which skews the data.
But so some lesser extent this is true for workplaces as well.
I really don't think it's that hard to think through and ask for additional info: which school do you go to, or what is your workplace postcode.

The real issue is that there are millions being spent on consultants and civil servants who's job is to plan, analyse, etc and yet here, in a very small community of scientific minded (not necessarily working in a scientific field) people - we come up with questions and data points that should have been captured from the start. This is what infuriates me.
(and this same logic goes for brexit as well)

My local news site says some of our cases are students at university elsewhere in the country, just to follow up that conversation.

There has also been an outbreak of 14 at a construction site which doesn't surprise me, having seen how the site across the road from me operated in April!

*one of the things I've learnt as an analyst is how to do network graphs. Did you guys come across any infection network (primary/secondary/tertiary) mapping? With the TTR data it should be theoretically possible to create some.
(I am 100% sure that it's not an original idea and someone is doing it, right?)

@BigChocFrenzy

Hospital transfers could also be done via military ambulances and airlifts, as well as high-speed trains

As this was quickly done for hundreds of ICU patients from other countries to Germany, with journeys of sometimes > 1,000km, it should be possible within the UK

No facilities nearby for an air ambulance at Leighton, you'd still have about a mile (inc speedhumps) from a nearby site where they normally land. Chester - yes, there is a helipad there. If you were doing airlifts, better to take the patient to Stoke (or further south tbh)

Trains - well, Countess of Chester is opposite Bache station on the line from Liverpool (handy for Morrisons too), but Leighton is completely the opposite side of gridlocked Crewe Station (too many railway lines and too few bridges) and not an easy direct route to Liverpool.

All of Red’s points about NW hospitals are 100% true. I also think there’s an alarming level of ignorance surrounding it with Westminster.

I was surprised to read that the R rate is slightly lower, how so with all the newly discovered positives, high positivity rates etc?